Concerning Covid-19: All Of Your Models Are Wrong, Part VI

BY Herschel Smith
1 year, 4 months ago

Two additional points needs to be made about the smart video the two doctors made in the video embedded in the last post.

First, let’s make sure everyone understands how this is all going to go down.  Not even the professional bureaucratic medical community made the claims early on that a lockdown, social distancing, use of PPEs, and all of the other onerous controls they have gotten the American people to adopt, would change one iota the total number of people who were exposed to Covid-19.  Because if they had made that claim, they would have been lying.

Even if no one attributes anything nefarious to their goals (I think that’s a very gracious assumption), the goal from the very beginning was merely to change the rate at which the virus propagates through society in order to prevent burdening the health care system beyond its capabilities.  If you believe that your social distancing and use of PPE is going to prevent forever your being exposed to this and other viruses, you don’t understand how this works.

You stop by the gas station to fuel with petrol.  You touch the nozzle handle.  You make contact with various pathogens.  If you use napkins to touch the nozzle handle, you swipe your card in a reader that has pathogens deposited on it.  You stop in at Lowes or Home Despot to pick up something related to plumbing, or air filters.  You are around two hundred other people, many of whom have been exposed to Coronavirus.  You pick up a part to examine it to see if it fits your needs.  You touch pathogens.  Even if you’re wearing gloves, you swipe your card in a reader that has pathogens.

If you use cash to prevent having to touch the card reader, that cash has been handled by people who have been exposed to Coronavirus.  If the store gives you the part because you complain about something or other, you are still breathing the air around you, much of which is recycled air from people who have been exposed to Coronavirus.

The delivery man who drops off the Amazon package leaves a box on your doorstep, and he has been exposed to Coronavirus.  Listen carefully.  Unless you live in the deepest part of Idaho and never visit the doctor or dentist, never have to order packages, grow your own food and slaughter your own meat, never go to the post office, and never receive mail, you are going to be exposed to Coronavirus.  Many millions of people have already been exposed.

The second point pertains to number of deaths (especially when compared to number of deaths from flu or any other pathogen).  In order for that ratio to mean anything, you must know the numerator and denominator.  The denominator is number of people who have been exposed.  We know that it’s a lot (millions), but the value is not reliably accurate.

The numerator is a complete joke.  Doctors never logged number of patients who died with flu, or strep, or any other pathogen, if in fact it wasn’t the direct cause of death.  Comparison of these ratios for Coronavirus and any other pathogen, you must formulate very strict definitions and boundary conditions for your study.  Those very strict boundary conditions do not obtain.

One final thought about this.  Recall from the previous video that the doctors have talked to colleagues who were pressured to find Covid-19 the cause of death?  I discussed this with my daughter a day or two ago.  Sure enough, where she works, “Presumed Covid-19 Diagnosis” is a formal diagnosis that can now be selected.

Consider that: Presumed Covid-19 Diagnosis.

As a practicing engineer, do you think I’d be able to use that summary statement on calculations rather than actually completing the work?  “Presumed accurate and error-free calculation.”

Finally, from reader BRVTVS, these two papers show promise with the use of Hydroxychloroquine.


2020.04.15 journal manuscript final.

You can read them at your leisure.  In both papers the authors recommend the use of Hydroxychloroquine and also find it safe.  It’s safe if you administer it to patients under the right conditions – we’ve known for a long time not to give it to patients with heart conditions.

And yet … the bureaucracy still opposes this safe and effective therapeutic, favoring instead forced ventilation.  Note that nearly 90% of patients in New York who were put on ventilators died.

That’s your medical establishment.  This is one of professional medicine’s darkest hours, and they aren’t doing their reputation any favors with the public.

Concerning Covid-19: All Of Your Models Are Wrong

Concerning Covid-19: All Of Your Models Are Wrong, Part II

Concerning Covid-19: All Of Your Models Are Wrong, Part III

Concerning Covid-19: All Of Your Models Are Wrong, Part IV

Concerning Covid-19: All Of Your Models Are Wrong, Part V


  1. On April 27, 2020 at 3:16 am, Steve Parker, M.D. said:

    Regarding the original report of a near-90% death rate of ventilator patients: CNN has modified their article. It’s more accurate to say we don’t quite know the death rate yet.

    From CNN:

    “The original report in JAMA stated that 12% of patients required ventilation and of them 88% died — but those numbers only represented a minority of patients whose outcome was known, not the entire body of patients. The updated numbers include all of the patients, including those who remained in the hospital at the time the data was gathered on April 4.
    The team looked at the electronic health records of 5,700 patients with coronavirus disease hospitalized at Northwell Health. Final outcomes were known for 2,634 of them. Davidson said 1,151 patients required ventilators. Of them, just 3.3% were discharged from the hospital by April 4, the day the records were collected. Another 282, or 24.5%, died and 831 — 72% — remained in the hospital, Richardson said.”

  2. On April 27, 2020 at 5:11 am, Tom said:

    Thanks for all of your posts on this matter, the clarity is much appreciated. This horrible massive psy op has fully terrorized our citizenry to the point that they are all willing to set the economy on fire and burn it to the ground (in all honesty much FED fuel is available as we’ve been playing in a dry forest for decades). A CCP team USA representative resides in NYS and gives daily pressers to his comradz in pajamas telling them he will inform them of their essential or non essential status in due time all while his secretary shows up with a giant Starbucks coffee every day. It’s in their faces but they can’t believe anyone would be so evil as to use a flu bug to cull elderly and sick people to make the economy go boom. That is exactly what happened and is happening. Somebody call Casey and tell him “Mission Accomplished”. Is refusal to use HCQ due to “orangemanbad” syndrome actually manslaughter? Is “the media” complicit in 30k homicides?

  3. On April 27, 2020 at 7:38 am, Fred said:

    “Those very strict boundary conditions do not obtain.” I love this sentence.

    I’m no expert on apocalypses but this is surely the worse one ever. Totally fake.

    Thanks for the great reporting on this, Mr. Smith.

  4. On April 27, 2020 at 7:39 am, Ned2 said:

    They’re not pushing Hydroxychloroquine because there’s no money to be made. We have plenty of it, it’s already FDA approved.
    They want a multi billion dollar “vaccine”.

  5. On April 27, 2020 at 9:31 am, ROBERT SYKES said:

    Consider this. China, taken by surprise, and with 18% of the world’s population has had 3% of the world’s cases and 2% of its deaths. China is in the recovery phase. Its economy will suffer a significant recession (7%?) for the second quarter.

    The US, with two full months warning, and 4% of the world’s population, had 33% of the world’s cases and 27% of its deaths. The US is in a Great Depression with a stock market crashing 25% and more than 30% unemployment. Once the stats are in, we will see a 30% or so decline in GDP. We are still approaching pandemic peak, and we are still in lockdown. How soon we come out of lockdown will determine whether the Great Depression lasts months or a decade or more.

    Is there any question as to which country has the more effective, responsible government?

  6. On April 27, 2020 at 9:42 am, Herschel Smith said:

    Nothing from China can be trusted. Including info.

  7. On April 27, 2020 at 11:08 am, Fred said:

    Mr. Sykes, include in your analysis that with each 1 trillion “injected” into the economy each American goes about another 7k (? or so) into debt meaning about 1 year to pay back that debt, either by taxation or inflation but YES it will get paid back, which prolongs any ACTUAL recovery by about a year, again, per 1 trillion.

    As of right now, it will be a decade or so just to get back to even. The bible has a word for this, it’s Usury.

  8. On April 27, 2020 at 12:55 pm, Arthur Sido said:

    So to summarize Robert:

    a) We can absolutely believe the numbers provided to us by one of the last remaining brutal, totalitarian regimes in the world because commie would never lie to us. Look how open the Soviets were about Chernobyl!

    b) A government that has one of the worst human rights records in the world and one that no sensible person would want to live under is “effective, responsible”. Remember that old saying about making the trains run on time?

    The oddest thing about the whole Chinese virus pandemic is that is bringing out so many apologists for the Chinese communist government.

  9. On April 27, 2020 at 1:03 pm, Herschel Smith said:


    Always follow the $$$. Apologists for the almighty $$$. China runs the U.S.

  10. On April 27, 2020 at 4:09 pm, JoeFour said:

    Captain Smith said, “Nothing from China can be trusted….”

    Well…I agree… but somehow can’t help thinking: “Nothing from China [or the United States government] can be trusted …”

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