Analysis Of The Covid-19 Pandemic

Herschel Smith · 18 Mar 2020 · 37 Comments

UPDATE 3/29 A few links, a few comments about those links, and then a link dump. Current trajectory of Covid-19.  I'll update the curve fit as often as I'm able to. Coronavirus Could be Chimera of Two Different Viruses, Genome Analysis Suggests. In December 2019, 27 of the first 41 people hospitalised (66 percent) passed through a market located in the heart of Wuhan city in Hubei province. But, according to a study conducted at Wuhan Hospital, the very first human case identified…… [read more]

Virginia Gun Laws Update

BY Herschel Smith
2 months, 1 week ago

News from Virginia.

RICHMOND, Va. — Virginia’s Senate Judiciary Committee passed several gun control bills Monday morning.

Those bills tackle everything from universal background checks (S. B. 70- Background Checks), one gun a month limit, (S.B. 69- One-Gun-a-Month Limit), red flag laws, firearms and ammunition to be controlled by localities (S.B. 35- Local Authority), as well as firearms being restricted at public events.

Each bill was brought before the committee and discussed at length with some amendments included. For five minutes opposers and supporters were able to speak on the bills.

For five minutes.  The best argument against it is that it violates God’s laws.  The simplest argument they can understand is that there isn’t an army big enough to enforce any of it if Virginians are determined in their opposition.

Apparently, the AWB is struggling a bit.

Several Senate Democrats have already said they are unlikely to back the governor’s ban on so-called assault weapons, such as the popular AR-15-style rifles – a key part of Northam’s gun-control package. The House version of the bill has also not advanced.

The assault weapons legislation has drawn the fiercest pushback, as gun-rights advocates accuse Democrats of wanting to confiscate such rifles from current gun owners. Northam has said he has no interest in doing so.

An estimated 8 million AR-style guns have been sold since they were introduced to the public in the 1960s. The weapons are known as easy to use, easy to clean and easy to modify with a variety of scopes, stocks and rails.

Oh my.  Eight million is a very low estimate.  I would guess twice that number.  Anyway, reader Fred makes a good point when he says that the most dangerous thing to come out of the controllers is the red flag laws.

And listen to this statement of one communist from Arlington.

“For too many years this body has put the convenience of gun owners above all else,” said Democratic Del. Patrick Hope.

Change the wording a bit.

“For too many years this body has put the convenience of Christians above all else, allowing them freedom of speech, unmitigated access to worship and their Bibles” said Democratic Del. Patrick Hope.

How does that strike you?  They are both God-given and constitutionally recognized rights, yes?

Open Carry In Speedway, Indiana

BY Herschel Smith
2 months, 1 week ago

This video is long but interesting.  Before watching, I have a few points to make to the chief of police in Speedway, Indiana.  Yes, I sent you this link, Mr. Campbell.

First, your officers violated the constitution of the United States by detaining him without a crime having been committed.  The original phone call didn’t report a crime, and you had no reason to suspect a crime.  This wasn’t a “Terry Stop,” and you know it.  Check with your DA.  He’ll back me up on this.

Second, the officer on the right in the video is much too emotional for my tastes.  I don’t think he has the temperament for the job.  Additionally, he keeps talking about logic, and I don’t think he understands what he’s talking about.  He should take a college course in logic before doing that again.  They will explain the rules of classical logic, and how presuppositions and axioms are used to produce conclusions, or in other words, how to properly build syllogisms.  The gun carrier you stopped didn’t violate any rules of logic in the video.  He didn’t stumble into any formal logical fallacies.

Third, as to the officer on the left who kept talking about what the gun carrier was trying to “prove,” that’s an irrelevant line of questioning and makes no difference.  It has nothing to do with anything, certainly not why he was being detained.

Fourth, the sergeant in the video asking the gun carrier to hand over his weapon for examination is the most nonsensical thing I’ve heard today.  Any man who touches another man’s gun is an idiot.  Any man who asks another man to handle his weapon is risking an ND, and is therefore an idiot.  Any man who handles another man’s weapon (in a case like this) is risking an ND, and is therefore an idiot.  I couldn’t care less if he is an “armorer” or not.  The request was stupid.

Furthermore, the stated excuse for turning over the weapon, “To see if any modifications had been made to it,” was an invasion of his privacy and unrelated to his being detained.  Your officers had absolutely no need to see his weapon.  And finally, if he had converted his weapon into a fully automatic rifle loaded with AP rounds, less than a 16″ barrel on it, and an illegal can attached, it wouldn’t have stood up in court.  I’m not going to waste our time explaining this since it’s all available if you review the Fourth Circuit case of U.S. versus Nathaniel Black (Charlotte Mecklenburg Police Department).  Ask your DA.  He’ll back me up on this.

Feds Back Off Jailing Michael Flynn After Stunning New Evidence That Gov’t ‘Lied’ and ‘Framed’ Him

BY Herschel Smith
2 months, 1 week ago

PJM.

The government lied, “framed,” hid favorable evidence, and showed “contempt for the law at every turn” in their treatment of Michael Flynn, the retired three-star Army general and former Trump White House national security adviser.

Those charges were contained in a new filing in the government’s case against Flynn. And his attorney, Sidney Powell, was just getting started.

In the 27-page-filing, an add-on to her previous motions, Powell demanded charges be dropped against Flynn based on previously withheld exculpatory documents by the government and the IG report on FISA abuse.

Told you so.  Repeatedly.  And as for his exchanges with Pence, I consider the VP to be part of the deep state.  I repeat.

He knew all about the nefarious deeds of the deep state.  He was in a position to shine light on the deep state.  To the deep state, he was a danger they couldn’t suffer.  So the FBI lied, altered his testimony, and conspired to frame him.  As a consequence, he has almost bankrupted himself with legal costs.

He knew who started the chaos in Libya, how the deep state worked, about Brownstone operations conducted by the deep state, etc., etc., etc.  They couldn’t allow him to see the light of day.  In fact, he’d better watch his six.

Oh.  And don’t ever talk to the police, be they local or FedGov.

S.C. Attorney General Files Lawsuit Against City Of Columbia Over Gun Laws

BY Herschel Smith
2 months, 1 week ago

Via reader Roger and also David Codrea, news from S.C.

COLUMBIA, S.C. (WIS) – Gun laws passed by the City of Columbia are coming under fire from South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson.

On Wednesday, Wilson filed a lawsuit with the South Carolina Supreme Court regarding a number of city ordinances.

The attorney general says the city ordinances violate state law, as well as the Second Amendment.

According to the suit, Wilson believes there are three city ordinances that are unconstitutional or preempt state law. The city ordinances in question include:

  • Allowing the city to take weapons from people with Extreme Risk Protection Orders against them
  • Banning firearms within 1,000 feet of a school
  • Prohibiting homemade firearms (also known as ghost guns)

Wilson sent Columbia Mayor Steve Benjamin a letter on Dec. 3, 2019, addressing this issue and asking that the ordinances be repealed. That has not happened.

“We have consistently advised for almost three decades, since 1991, that state law preempts local regulation of firearms. These ordinances clearly violate the state law that prohibits local governments from passing any gun laws or ordinances that regulate the transfer, ownership, or possession of firearms,” Wilson said.

The attorney general said while he supports the right of the city to protect Columbians, the council cannot pass ordinances that run counter to state law.

David says this.  “I don’t like the idea of anyone claiming authority to infringe, but this is a necessary defensive maneuver.”

For me, I would put it a bit differently.  I’m in favor of preemption when it protects liberty and God-given rights, and against it when it infringes upon liberty and God-given rights.  So for example, I will oppose such a move if Virginia does this sort of thing against second amendment sanctuary counties, and I will support it when S.C. does it to the communist mayor of Columbia.  Therefore, I’m consistent.

Here is the paperwork (02195868).  I would have been more impressed if they had just sent the state police to throw him in prison.  And I’ll be happy if the county Sheriffs and local militia arrest Virginia state police if they try to confiscate firearms.

I dare a communist to prove me inconsistent.  Try it.

More Reliable Lever Gun Ammunition

BY Herschel Smith
2 months, 1 week ago

Outdoor Life.

Federal’s Hammer Down line is targeted directly to lever-gun hunters. Federal worked directly with Henry Repeating Arms on this project to solve common loading, feeding, and cycling issues with standard ammunition by deburring and adding slight chambering (sic) at key spots on the cases. They also added a higher quality bullet, a controlled-expansion bonded bullet that will perform better than typical lever-gun offerings. You’ll get reliable cycling, as well as expansion without sacrificing penetration. If you’re a lever-gun hunter, especially in straight-wall states, you’ll want to check this out. It’s going to be hitting the shelves in standard lever-gun cartridges from .327 Federal magnum up to .45-70..

The author at Outdoor Life didn’t mean “chambering.”  He meant chamfering.

From Guns.com.

“We needed to develop a complete line of optimized ammunition for use in lever-action rifles while still functioning in handguns. During development, we looked most specifically at terminal performance across all cartridges when shot in a lever-action firearm,” Federal Ammunition Centerfire Rifle Product Line Manager Eric Miller said in a statement. “With HammerDown, we believe we have accomplished that goal.”

It’s fairly pricey.

  • .357 Magnum 170-grain, $19.99
  • .327 Federal 127-grain — $19.99
  • .44 Rem Mag 270-grain — $19.99
  • .45 Colt 250-grain — $19.99
  • .30-30 Win 150-grain — $19.99
  • .45-70 Govt 300-grain — $38.99

Here is a video from SHOT Show.

One More Step Towards Complete Communist Gun Control In New York

BY Herschel Smith
2 months, 1 week ago

But it’s a big one.  David LaPell writing at Ammoland.

The bill (S7065) (A01589) would make it mandatory that every gun owner in the state of New York get a mental health evaluation before they could purchase a firearm. This wouldn’t be a one-time thing, this would be for every gun and of course, these evaluations would have to be held at a location of the state of New York’s choosing and would be at the expense of the person looking to purchase the gun.

[ … ]

There is also a larger and much more sinister motive to think about here. New York passed its own version of a Red Flag law last year, and unlike other states, it allows schools and just about anyone else to petition the courts to get an ERPO and have someone’s firearms taken away. Now can you imagine every gun owner now having to be subjected to a mental health exam, over and over again, where one wrong question, one misconstrued answer or even the bias of the doctor could not only prevent someone from legally buying the gun they were looking to get, but also lead to the police coming to the house and taking the rest and with a doctor’s word versus the citizen’s in court, the gun owner, soon to become the former gun owner, wouldn’t stand a chance legally.

This is a page right out of the communist playbook.

Not even mentioned is the fact that mental health professionals don’t want to be involved in such things, don’t believe that their trade can accurately predict those predisposed to violence, and certainly don’t want the liability and professional risk.

Always remember what reader Menckenlite said.

Control freaks love psychiatry, a means of social control with no Due Process protections. It is a system of personal opinion masquerading as science. See, e.g., Boston University Psychology Professor Margaret Hagan’s book, Whores of the Court, to see how arbitrary psychiatric illnesses are. Peter Breggin, Fred Baughman and Thomas Szasz wrote extensively about abuses of psychiatry. Liberals blame guns for violence. Conservatives blame mental illness. Neither have any causal connection to violence. The issue is criminal conduct, crime. Suggesting that persons with legal disabilities are criminals shows the nonsensical argument of this politician and his fellow control freaks. Shame on them.

The communists never sleep.  We can’t either.

Police Officer Shot Through Neighbor’s Wall With Rifle: “A Wall In Our Apartment Exploded”

BY Herschel Smith
2 months, 1 week ago

News from Florida.

HOLLY HILL, Fla. – A bullet struck an apartment of a Holly Hill family getting ready for the day on Wednesday.

The bullet came from the rifle of an officer, according to a police report.

Police said around 6:40 a.m. Wednesday officers responded to the Charleston House Apartments in reference to a suspicious incident.

A renter told officers he believed someone shot into his apartment because of a large hole in the wall and the plaster and wood on the floor, according to police.

Investigators said there was a hole in the wall above a door frame in the northeast bedroom of the apartment.

Two kids were in the bedroom getting ready to go to school, according to the report.

“Yeah, my wife was home. She was up, she was getting our kids ready for school and then like a wall in our apartment exploded,” he told a dispatcher.

The dispatcher asked him why it took an hour to call authorities.

“She just told me. She had to get the kids up and to the school bus before it left and she just got back,” he said.

A Holly Hill officer lives above the apartment and he told police he was attempting to move a rifle, according to the incident report.

He told police he was walking with the rifle and must have had his finger inside the trigger guard, according to investigators.

Investigators said he told police he tripped on something and the rifle discharged.

Police said there aren’t criminal charges and the officer was off duty.

The officer is still on regular patrols, according to police.

The department will do a review of the situation, according to investigators.

Yea, that’s important information for a dispatcher to know: ” … why it took an hour to call authorities.”  Not why some dumb ass discharged a round through an apartment wall.

50,000 guns in Richmond, Virginia, not even a single negligent discharge.  One cop with a rifle, a hole in a neighbor’s wall

The best part is that “The officer is still on regular patrols.”  Well good.  We wouldn’t want a cop to go without work, even if he does occasionally kill neighbors by leaving rounds in the chamber, the muzzle pointed in the wrong direction, and the rifle laying where it can be knocked around.

Then again, there’s always the possibility that he didn’t knock it around.  Sympathetic muscle reflect might have caused him to pull the trigger when he tripped.  In this case, that’s another rule of gun safety he violated.

NRA Doing Indefensible Things

BY Herschel Smith
2 months, 1 week ago

David Codrea.

As just one prominent example, it makes no sense for NRA to give superlatives to Marco Rubio for what he does with one hand when what he does with the other undermines all of that in the long run. He betrays us on things like chain migration, unnecessary worker visas, refugee and asylum fraud, illegal immigration rewards, and a “path to citizenship” for illegals. To present him as our great friend in light of supporting a 70% Democrat influx is indefensible.

But the NRA has been doing indefensible things ever since its inception.

I’ll tell you what.  Get rid of Wayne and his suits.  Get rid of all of the other senior staff.  Get rid of most of the board of directors, especially Marion Hammer and Tom King.  Begin anew by opposing immigration (because they vote 70%-80% gun control).  Oppose things like bump stock bans rather than actually suggesting them.  Oppose universal background checks rather than actually suggesting them.

Start behaving wisely and prudently with membership money.  Score every vote that even comes close to testing the waters on immigration and new gun control measures.  Never compromise (compromise means giving anything).  Only lobby to get things for gun owners.  Oppose any new controls on MSRs.  Oppose red flag laws instead of actually suggesting them.  Spend money to throw out gun control politicians.  Begin the long march towards undoing the GCA and the NFA.

Then we’ll talk.  Otherwise, the NRA is just harming the cause as I see it.

Assault Weapon Definition According To Virginia Delegate Mark Levine: AR-15s And “Red Hot Magazines”

BY Herschel Smith
2 months, 1 week ago

Good Lord.  “Mowing down approaching armies” by sweeping the muzzle from side to side (If you ever try something like that at a range, you’ll be kicked off the range with prejudice, and this isn’t even discussing the fact that you won’t hit anything except by accident – if he was open-minded, which he’s not, it might be useful to take him to a range and actually demonstrate how this is done.).  “Red hot magazines.”  Red … hot … magazines.  And there is just no data at all to justify his statement that mass shootings have to do with whether AR-15s are legal, nor is there any justification that machine guns couldn’t be used for mass shootings today with the relative ease of drilling two holes and dropping in an auto-sear.  A determined criminal can do pretty much anything s/he wants.  And note that he doesn’t allow that the criminal will have an AR-15, but you won’t for defense of home and hearth because you’re not a criminal.  Then again, no one in Virginia will “grandfather” their ARs.  No one.

Finally, mass shootings have gone way down, not of course including state-sponsored mass shootings in “gun free” nations, which is the reason for ownership of AR-15s in the first place.

Fisk it yourself.  It’s not hard.  He’s ignorant, prudish, and arrogant.  And yet with Bloomberg money, an influx of controllers to Northern Virginia, and an absent voter base in the last election, he and his ilk is governing Virginia.

You just can’t make this kind of thing up.  I love it when the progs self-identify as idiots.  It saves us the trouble.

Prior:

UPDATE: Though per David Codrea, it may be impossible to shame him.

Gaston County, N.C., Second Amendment Sanctuary

BY Herschel Smith
2 months, 1 week ago

Gaston County, the most recent N.C. county to become a second amendment sanctuary.  Like I said it would.


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