Concerning Covid-19: All Of Your Models Are Wrong, Part II

BY Herschel Smith
7 months, 1 week ago

I have all of the curves: confirmed Covid-19 cases in America, mortality rate, ratio of active to confirmed cases, currently active cases, recovered cases, etc., etc.

None of it means anything.  At all.

MIT Study.

Just one section of Massachusetts could have more than 100,000 coronavirus cases — many times more than the entire state has identified at this point, according to an MIT-associated study of local sewage.

Biobot Analytics, which is a lab associated with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, published research this week that an analysis of sewage from a treatment facility in “a large metropolitan area in the state of Massachusetts” suggested that many more people potentially have the highly contagious disease than tests have confirmed.

“On March 25, the area represented by the sample had approximately 446 confirmed cases of Covid-19,” Biobot researchers wrote Wednesday in a post about their research. “Based on our sewage analysis, we estimate that up to 115,000 people are infected and shedding the SARS-CoV-2 virus.”

Biobot, which didn’t respond to requests for comment, didn’t specify where in the state the samples came from.

MIT.  Large metropolitan area.  Probably Boston.

USC Study.

While Los Angeles County has reported a total of 13,816 coronavirus cases, early results from an antibody study conducted with the University of Southern California shows that hundreds of thousands more could have had COVID-19 in the past, officials announced Monday.

So far, 863 L.A. County residents have been tested between April 10 and 14 as part of the study.

The study estimates a prevalence of COVID-19 antibodies in the county to be 4.1%, with a range that could be as low as 2.8% and as high as 5.6%, when you factor in the reliability of the tests.

An estimated 221,000 adults to 442,000 adults at the high end may have been infected at some point before April 9 with COVID-19, suggesting that the number of total people in the county with a past or current infection is 28 to 55 times higher than the number of reported positive cases, Dr. Barbara Ferrer, L.A. County’s public health director said Monday.

“Although I report every day that we have thousands of thousands of people that have tested positive, the serology testing lets us know that we have hundreds of thousands of people that have already developed antibodies to the virus because at some point in time over the last couple of months, they have in fact been infected with COVID-19,” Ferrer said.

Everything you’re being told by the FedGov and StateGov and CountyGov is crap.  I’m a registered professional engineer.  I’ve done science, engineering and mathematical modeling for 40 years.  If I did my work like this my license would have been stripped and I would be in jail.

Bill Buppert at ZeroGov says this.

You won’t find me parsing the nonsensical and shamanesque grotesqueries of Comrades Birx or Fauci or any of the other “government health” frauds at the hilariously contranymic Center for Disease Control; when not chasing the phantoms of gun violence (is hanging rope violence?) or racism or salt, the CDC is yet another government clown posse who couldn’t predict a sunset much less the verities of viral outbreaks.

Me neither.  I’ve said it before.  It has all become a FedGov jobs program for incompetent people who can’t otherwise do real work anywhere else, all controlled by wicked rulers who want to convert America into nanny state socialism with moronic sheeple begging for more and more control over their daily lives.

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Comments

  1. On April 21, 2020 at 1:01 am, Dan said:

    Classic GI GO…..we don’t have near enough valid data so ANY ‘projections’ are at best a guess. And most are agenda
    driven lies.

  2. On April 21, 2020 at 9:10 am, Ned said:

    It’s looking like TPTB scientists are as accurate in their “science” as were the political scientists who said Trump would never be president.

  3. On April 21, 2020 at 9:40 am, Fred said:

    I said, and maintain; CV19 burned through Tennessee back in December.

  4. On April 21, 2020 at 9:54 am, George 1 said:

    NYC has now discovered that there were actually 3700 more CV-19 deaths than they had previously counted. Sure.

    We will never have the correct numbers. TPTB are going to try to drastically inflate the CV-19 death toll numbers in an attempt to make their models more accurate.

  5. On April 21, 2020 at 12:42 pm, Ned2 said:

    If this is so contagious, why are we allowed to go to the post office, grocery store or hardware store?

    If this is so lethal, why do the numbers get augmented at the whim of CDC et al?

    I’ve been reading a lot about this in the last week from everywhere, main stream to tin foil.
    My opinion is this virus, while being a serious strain of flu, is being overblown to create a situation where the banks and big corporations will get a massive bail out without pissing off the hoi polloi. Follow the money. Our global financial situation is a disaster and about to disintegrate at any time. They need to wipe the slate clean.

  6. On April 21, 2020 at 4:29 pm, Name (required) said:

    Everything we knew on 21 January indicated that closing the economy was a reasonable precaution. Everything we know on 21 April indicates we were wrong to close the economy this long. Perhaps we were wrong to close it down, period.

  7. On April 21, 2020 at 9:07 pm, Fred said:

    Who, precisely, is “we” that “knew” to abandon liberty and human ingenuity to hand government total medical tyranny?

    I NEVER agreed to that, have always disagreed with it, and Washington DC needs to be burned to the ground and everybody there hanged from the neck until dead.

    How many people need to die before I give up my freedom? ALL OF THEM. Statist trash go back to Nazi Germany.

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