Analysis Of The Covid-19 Pandemic

Herschel Smith · 18 Mar 2020 · 37 Comments

UPDATE 3/29 A few links, a few comments about those links, and then a link dump. Current trajectory of Covid-19.  I'll update the curve fit as often as I'm able to. Coronavirus Could be Chimera of Two Different Viruses, Genome Analysis Suggests. In December 2019, 27 of the first 41 people hospitalised (66 percent) passed through a market located in the heart of Wuhan city in Hubei province. But, according to a study conducted at Wuhan Hospital, the very first human case identified…… [read more]

    All Gun Politics Is Local

    BY Herschel Smith
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Maryland is sued in federal court over recent gun laws:

    Gun-rights activists in Maryland have filed a federal lawsuit to block the state’s new gun law before new requirements on assault weapons and large magazines go into effect Oct. 1.

    In the lawsuit in filed Thursday in U.S. District Court in Maryland, the plaintiffs argues the the Second Amendment and case law protect their right to own assault rifles and magazines that hold more than 10 rounds, The Baltimore Sun reported.

    The plaintiffs include the Maryland Licensed Firearms Dealers Association, the Maryland State Rifle and Pistol Association, the National Shooting Sports Foundation, Associated Gun Clubs of Baltimore, and several other organizations, individuals and gun shops, according to the report.

    Maryland responds that it’s too little, too late.  I question this move on both a tactical and strategic level.  First of all, the tactics of a challenge in federal court is like turning to the Leviathan to defang the Leviathan.  It’s unlikely, and a bit strange.

    Strategically it might also be a mistake.  As I’ve said before, the Second Amendment doesn’t speak to states.  It frames the federal planners to restrict their actions.  The best option would have been to deal with this issue locally and within the state of Maryland.  If Maryland is too far gone to turn the tide of totalitarianism, then it’s time to move.

    David Codrea notes some activism in Ohio.

    An email sent by the president of the League of Women Voters of Hudson (Ohio) to its membership yesterday recruited support to overturn the state’s preemption laws on guns.

    “If you are concerned by gun violence, you may be interested in Oberlin’s request for help on getting legislation to allow home rule with regard to banning firearms in city parks,” President Karen Swedenborg advised members. “This is a grass roots effort, if you are interested, contact me.”

    Read the rest at Examiner.  Goof grief.  The League of Women Voters still exists?  David is right to have been involved in fighting attempts to overturn state preemption laws.  North Carolina still has a form of those on the books for cities and municipalities, as well as CLEO approval of handgun purchases.  We have our demons to deal with as well.

    But the state is the right place to fight the fight until we secede from the union, after which it will be the only place to fight the fight.

    Is She A Tough Girl Or A Sissy?

    BY Herschel Smith
    6 years, 6 months ago

    I watched this weekend at my son Joshua’s house as Heidi (my Doberman) decided that she wanted to meet the dog next door, and she jumped a four foot privacy fence.  I assumed that the fence would be a barrier to her and I didn’t have her shock collar on.  I assumed wrong.

    And you’ve seen the video of bears jumping up and down on their front legs to warn you before they attack?  A couple of weeks ago I witnessed Heidi exhibiting the same behavior.  She barked so loudly that she hurt my ears, while each bark was timed with her paws landing on the floor.  I don’t recall who she saw on the sidewalk, but she was pissed, and I wouldn’t have wanted her outside at the moment.

    And then there is this.


    She literally arranged the pillows, crashed on the couch, and then pulled the blanket over her.  I kid you not.  At about 85 pounds, her long legs have to hang off.

    Shhh! … don’t tell my wife.  Heidi isn’t allowed on the couch, and if my wife knew about this Heidi would be done for.  In a throw-down between my wife and Heidi, Heidi doesn’t stand a chance.

    House GOP Works On Immigration Behind The Scenes

    BY Herschel Smith
    6 years, 6 months ago


    Immigration overhaul legislation has been dormant in the House for months, but a few Republicans are working behind the scenes to advance it at a time the Capitol is immersed in a partisan brawl over government spending and President Barack Obama’s health care law.

    The chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, Rep. Bob Goodlatte, has been discussing possible legal status for the estimated 11 million immigrants living in the U.S. illegally. He’s also been working with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, a fellow Virginia Republican, on a bill offering citizenship to immigrants brought illegally to the U.S. as children.

    Reps. Raul Labrador, R-Idaho, and Ted Poe, R-Texas, are working on a plan to create a visa program allowing more lower-skilled workers into the country.

    Goodlatte and the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, Rep. Mike McCaul, R-Texas, hold out hopes for floor action by late October on a series of immigration bills that already have passed their committees.

    “I would think that would be the next agenda item in the queue after we’re done with this mess,” McCaul said this past week, referring to bitter divisions over the health law, the level of government spending and the growing federal debt.

    The attention of House GOP leaders seems certain to remain squarely focused on the fiscal disputes until they are resolved, leaving immigration on a back burner for some time to come. But lawmakers and outside advocates insist that three months after the Democratic-led Senate passed a sweeping immigration bill, the issue is showing signs of life in the Republican-run House.

    “Despite the appearance that would suggest everyone in Washington is focused on one thing, work is going on on other issues beneath the radar,” said Tamar Jacoby, head of ImmigrationWorks USA, a coalition of small businesses that supports comprehensive immigration legislation.

    Goodlatte has made it clear he wants to see the issue solved.

    That’s a lie.  The GOP doesn’t want to see the issue solved.  This could be done quickly and easily.  Militarize the border, shoot people who try to cross illegally, inspect every package and vehicle at every checkpoint, and implement E-Verify.  What the GOP wants to do is flood the country with tens of millions of democratic voters who will install socialist leaders for the next century.

    Why?  Because they’re sellouts and traitors.  They cannot help but be that, because it’s in their nature.  It’s like my dog Heidi who returns to her vomit and eating the same thing (usually grass and live bugs) that caused her to vomit in the first place, or who agitates and annoys the crap out of poisonous snakes regardless of the fact that she’s been bitten by a Copperhead and knows what it’s like.  She cannot help herself.  Neither can the GOP – like a dog to its vomit.  Most of them are traitors, and they will never be anything but traitors.  They cannot be changed, and politics as usual is not a solution to the moral sickness that grips America.

    Good Rifle Owners And Bad Media

    BY Herschel Smith
    6 years, 6 months ago

    CBS Connecticut:

    The Paradis and D’Avino family knows guns. They’ve owned them and enjoyed hunting and target shooting. Shooting was just part of life, like the time after Thanksgiving dinner in 2009 when a guest of husband and wife Peter Paradis and Mary D’Avino brought out an AR-15 rifle he had in the car.

    Together, with their children, the couple spent time shooting at a tree in their backyard on five acres off heavily wooded Route 61.

    Paradis and his stepdaughter, Hannah D’Avino, recalled that holiday afternoon recently. They sat their kitchen table and reminisced about Hannah’s sister, Rachel D’Avino.

    Rachel D’Avino died Dec. 14, 2012, inside Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown. Twenty first-grade students and six staff members died when Adam Lanza, a 20-year-old Newtown resident who had attended that elementary school, stormed into the building with a Bushmaster AR-15 rifle. He shot his way through classrooms, then killed himself as police converged.

    The rifle that killed their stepdaughter and sister was the same kind of military-style rifle the family had shot together that Thanksgiving Day. They’re commonly called assault weapons, a term once applied to fully automatic weapons used on the battlefield but now applied to semi-automatic military copycats given the same look, but not the ability to fire continuously with one pull of the trigger.

    Let’s pause there for a moment and review the media explanation of guns.  The term “assault weapons” was not once, ever in history, used to describe what the military uses (which is technically referred to as assault rifle).  As we’ve discussed before, the concept of assault rifle involved three features: intermediate cartridge, mild recoil and selective fire.

    Since the typical working man cannot afford the cost of owning a fully automatic weapon (only automatic weapons manufactured before 1968 stayed in circulation and their price is extremely high – see the Hughes Amendment), we have only two of the three features.  The phrase “assault weapon” is a fabricated bastard concocted by the Brady Campaign to scare people.

    The next part of the article is very interesting and important.

    Rachel’s murder has not marred her family’s memory of that holiday afternoon. For a family of marksmen, it also has not changed their views about guns.

    After months of silence, Hannah D’Avino and Peter Paradis said they feel compelled to speak publicly: They are not happy that Rachel D’Avino’s name and her memory are being used to push for more and tougher gun legislation.

    Their tragedy, they say, has been hijacked for political gain, to further a message with which they disagree.

    “We’re very frustrated mainly because the 26 families got lumped together. We’re 26 families made of individuals that all have different opinions,” Hannah D’Avino said. “It’s like people are speaking for me and speaking for my sister. They don’t know her and they don’t know us.”

    Paradis and D’Avino note that the only firearm-related injury or death in their family happened when Rachel was killed. She joined them in target shooting and was a good shot, they said.

    That’s not all they remember of her _ it is a small detail of a life remembered mostly for her short career as a behavioral analyst and her work with autistic children and their families. Rachel D’Avino carried a passionate desire to help autistic children, to improve their quality of life and their families. The family home’s solarium is filled with gifts sent by strangers: drawings, letters, jewelry from people touched by her story, and by her tragic death. The family continues to raise money in Rachel’s name for research and services for autistic children and their families.

    The family has been reluctant to talk publicly, largely because of unprofessional treatment by media representatives. Days after Rachel’s death, they were inundated with requests for interviews. They were frustrated by repeated attempts by producers and reporters who hoped to land their angle of the Newtown story.

    Hannah D’Avino “friended” a woman on Facebook after the woman said she was a friend of Rachel’s. That woman later turned out to be a producer asking to interview her. Another woman got past a state trooper stationed at the front of the family’s driveway, saying she was a friend of Rachel who wanted to bring a basket of packaged muffin mix to the family. Inside was a card containing a business card from a producer at CNN.

    So there you have it.  The D’Avino family wants to help the families of autistic children in memory of their beloved Rachel.  The media wanted to foist their political views into the tragedy in order to score points, and CNN lied in order to gain access to the family.

    It seems that the term “assault weapon” isn’t the only bastard in the story.

    Cops Kill Disabled Iraq War Veteran In His Own Home

    BY Herschel Smith
    6 years, 6 months ago

    The Free Patriot:

    LYNN, Mass. – A disabled Iraq war veteran was shot and killed after police claim he grabbed an officer’s gun inside his apartment.

    Lynn Police Chief Kevin Coppinger said officers were responding to reports of a disturbance. They allege the suspect, Denis Reynoso, got into a  heated exchange with a person in a gray car before returning to his residence.

    Investigators claim three officers entered Reynoso’s apartment where he wrestled a gun away from one of the officers.

    “A physical struggle ensued during that struggle it appears that individual was able to take one of the firearms from one of the police officers and shots were fired in the apartment,” said Coppinger.

    Reynoso was rushed to a nearby hospital where he died from his injuries.

    Family members claim the Iraq War veteran was caring for one of his two children during the shooting. They say he would never try to grab a gun from a police officer.

    “You took him from two beautiful children and a wife, and a sister, and a mother, and everybody,” said Reynoso’s wife, Jessica Spinney.

    Spinney says she disagrees with the police version of the story.

    “Do you think a disabled veteran from Iraq would reach for another officer’s pistol? Never in a million years,” Spinney said.

    I don’t know.  I simply don’t know whether Reynoso reached for a weapon or not.  But I do know that something (or some things) went horribly wrong for the encounter to get to this point.

    First, a “heated exchange” isn’t even nearly reason enough for police to be dispatched.  Thousands of people have heated exchanges all over America and the world every hour.

    Second, unless the police saw a crime occurring inside the home, there was no reason for them to be inside the home.  Even more pointedly, even if they were invited, they should never have entered the home.  They should have asked if they could speak to the individual outside the home.  If the individual refused, it was time for the police to leave, having no reports of a crime having been committed.

    Third, exactly what kind of altercation was occurring for the victim to be within reaching distance of an officer’s weapon?  There is a missing piece of the story that we’re not hearing.

    Fourth, did this officer use a retention holster?  How on earth did the victim obtain a gun from the officer – and if he didn’t actually have the officer’s weapon in his possession, then on what legal basis did the officer discharge his weapon?

    Finally, the veteran was apparently disabled.  Could this not have been handled with OC spray?  Shooting a disabled war veteran?  Really?

    The Science Of The Gun Draw

    BY Herschel Smith
    6 years, 6 months ago

    This is Ron Avery with Haley Strategic (managed by Travis Haley) showing us pointers and tips to a faster and smoother gun draw.  It seems helpful to me, but it will require hours of practice.  And if you use a retention holster, this stroke is only part of the equation.

    Guns Tags:

    Weapons Of War On The Streets

    BY Herschel Smith
    6 years, 6 months ago

    David Codrea:

    That leaves one last logical place where a public inquiry could and should be conducted, but Mr. Issa hasn’t shown much interest in following up on things of late, and the Republican leadership hardly seems inclined to encourage him to do so, for reasons we can only speculate.

    Put on your hard hat and other PPEs and prepare for a working man’s article.  David takes us on an adventure race down memory lane to rehearse just how bad Fast and Furious really was, now that subject weapons are again in the news.  There are lots of reference links and some technical discussion, but it’s well worth the time.

    And take note that even the previously fervent and well-intentioned are disinterested, or worn down, or know that the administration won’t be truthful.  Unfortunately we don’t know, but the sad state of affairs is that people are still perishing at the hands of an administration trying to construct a case for an “assault weapons ban” by rigging the statistics with U.S. weapons.

    I also noticed The Washington Post, citing yet another pointy-head academic paper, is still pressing the meme of U.S. weapons flowing South to Mexico as the catalyst for the cartel violence.  Hey, if people don’t know the truth, you can tell them anything you want.  And academics do.  And the main stream media does.

    Kurt Hofmann:

    Quinn, readers may remember, is an enthusiastic advocate of banning so-called “assault weapons,” being one of those who considers them to be “weapons of war that belong on a battlefield, not on our streets.” He has been, in fact, willing to violate both the U.S. Constitution and the Illinois state constitution to write his own AWB bill, because, he claims, “the proliferation of military-style assault weapons and high-capacity ammunition magazines undermines public safety and the right of personal security of every citizen.”

    We discussed this in Bilderberg, The New American Century And The Rise Of Intelligence.  It is difficult to achieve the status of arming orders for National Guard troops (it involves training, range qualifications, military approvals, knowledge of rules for the use of force, etc.).  The National Guard sent to the border weren’t under arming orders, and thus they did paperwork and clerical duties.

    Kurt’s article made me think once again about the Governor’s threat to use National Guard troops.  Such an action would be both illegal and immoral.  But if he deployed the National Guard to the city to quell violence without arming orders or ammunition for their weapons, he is turning them into sitting ducks.

    The Governor can’t win.  If he deploys them with weapons and ammunition he is committing an immoral action against the citizens.  If he deploys them without arming orders, he is being an immoral leader for the troops.  And actually he can win in this scenario.  It’s easy.  Don’t deploy the troops at all because that’s not the proper use of those troops.

    And for someone who decries the use of weapons of war on the streets, perhaps he should be a little more concerned about unleashing SWAT teams to terrorize citizens.  “Weapons of war.”  The administration sent them to Mexico because they don’t want us to have them – we aren’t the cartels.  The SWAT teams want them, but they don’t want us to have them.  The Governor is prepared to unleash them in the city to quell violence, but not if it involves innocent citizens protecting themselves.

    One could begin to think that this all had to do with a little more than “weapons of war,” this quest to arm certain men and disarm others, no?

    Read David and Kurt.

    AR-15s In The News

    BY Herschel Smith
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Courtesy of Say Uncle, there is this on use of an AR-15 for home defense.

    If you are considering an AR-15 as your choice of home defense weapon, I urge you to read “”Bring Enough Gun”: A History of The FBI’s Long Arms,” by Bill Vanderpool in American Rifleman, October 2013, pages 115, 116 …

    On page 115, Mr. Vanderpool begins discussing why the FBI chose to replace the H&K MP5 type weapons with members of the AR family for “entry” weapons.  He gives a brief history of the decision-making process and concludes that “…the AR system was found to be a safer and more effective round to use in close-quarter combat.”  [He means safer to shoot inside rooms than the two submachinegun rounds in use at the time in 9mm and 10mm.]

    Well, yes, this is rehearsed in articles I’ve written about the AR-15 and ballistics of the 5.56 which tends to yaw in flight and shatter upon impact (frangible ammunition, not green tip, or steel core).  Remember though, use of any weapon inside a home means that you must remember the rules, one of which is that you must be aware of your backstop.  Dry wall is not a good one regardless of whether you are using a handgun, shotgun or rifle.

    Policymic summarizes five instances of use of the AR-15 in self defense (situations that likely saved lives).

    April, a 32-year-old named Jasper Brisbon attacked a Philadelphia couple as they entered their home. The man grabbed his AR-15 and pointed it at the intruder.  The man told Brisbon to leave, but he didn’t. Instead he advanced menacingly as the resident screamed, “Stop! Stop! Stop!” and finally fired a shot into Brisbon’s torso.  He called 911 and an ambulance delivered the intruder to a hospital where he was pronounced dead. Police said the AR-15 was legally purchased.

    This February, a man and woman attacked a tax preparation business near Detroit, pointing handguns at the receptionist and owner.  As you can see in this surveillance video, when one of the attackers advances past two horrified victims to check out the next room of this house converted into a small business office, a security guard behind the door enters with an AR-15 and scares off the intruders with two shots.

    This January, two men with a handgun broke into the NY apartment of a Rochester Institute of Technology student named Raymond. His AR-15 may have saved his life.

    In 2010, a 15-year-old Texas boy used his father’s AR-15 to defend himself and his 12yo sister when they were home alone one afternoon and two home invaders attacked their house.

    Then the author lists the 1992 LA riots where a Ruger Mini-14 was used.  I am surprised that they didn’t list the instance of Mr. Stephen Bayezes that I discussed in No One Needs ARs For Self Defense.

    The owner of the Guns and Ammo Gunsmith store in North Augusta, S.C. thought he was going to die tragically. Three men had driven a van into his store, executing what they hoped would be a quick “smash-and-grab” robbery.

    Instead, they met owner Stephen Bayezes, who opened fire on the three intruders after the commotion set off an alarm, hitting each one at least once. He says he is not proud of what he was forced to do, but added sometimes “you’ve got to.” The incident occurred on Aug. 9, but the owner says a set of tire marks on the store’s floor and an unfinished wall are daily reminders of the night that he almost lost his life.

    “It’s a haunting thought. It literally is a haunting thought when you see the tire tracks, you hear the tires,” Bayezes told WRDW-TV. “Everybody assures you that you just did what you had to do to protect your family. They say it’ll heal over time, but when does time go away? It’s something that nobody ever wants to do.”

    But he says he had no choice after he heard one of the robbers shout, “Shoot the mother f**ker!,” followed by the sound of a gun cocking. “I mean, they would’ve shot me. In my mind, with no reservation. If that firearm had been loaded, I might’ve been a statistic.”

    Finally, notes that Cerberus has tried to unload manufacturers of AR-15s (probably Bushmaster) but has been unsuccessful, and is still making loads of money off of AR-15s.  Then the author makes this amusing comment.

    The inability to close a deal says a lot about the conflicted state of the US gun control battle. There’s clearly something wrong with owning this company—otherwise, why would Cerberus try to sell it and why would no buyers emerge? But there’s also little apparent public-relations cost (and no litigation cost—gunmakers in the US aren’t liable when their weapons are misused) to owning the firearms giant, at least as long as Cerberus claims not to want to. And meanwhile, the money just keeps rolling in.

    Uh huh.  Look, we’ve discussed Freedom Group / Cerberus before, and how they are essentially venture capitalists and look to bust up competition rather than making their procurements better.  Thus, the way they look to increase sales in any one category is to buy and close down competition in that category.  Many a small and medium sized gun manufacturer has closed down after being purchased by Freedom Group.

    They aren’t good for the gun market in the long term, and thus I won’t shed a tear at their problems.  But it’s a nice problem to have – making all of that money.  I suspect that they are trying to get out while the market is at the peak (or thereabouts), to invest in something else.  Freedom Group isn’t about guns like the article seems to think – good or bad.  It is about money.  That’s why the article is misleading and confused.

    AK-47s are also in the news and you can read about it if you wish (I have shot the AK-47 before and I think it’s an imprecise, rattling clanker), but around here we speak the name of Eugene Stoner with hushed, reverential awe and respect.  If you say anything bad about Eugene Stoner or AR-15s you will be banned for life and imprecatory prayers will be spoken about you and your children’s children.

    AR-15s,Guns Tags:

    Kerry To Sign U.N. Arms Treaty

    BY Herschel Smith
    6 years, 6 months ago

    As I’m sure you’ve heard by now, empty suit intends to sign the U.N. Arms Treaty.  This holds no power as long as the Senate doesn’t ratify it, which we’re told has no chance of happening.

    I’d like to take some credit for it’s “dead on arrival” status in the Senate with these articles.

    U.N. Arms Treaty: Dreams Of International Gun Control

    The U.N. Arms Trade Treaty: It Isn’t That Complicated

    The U.N. Small Arms Treaty

    So whether it’s honest or not, I will take some of the credit.  Rock on.  But just because it’s dead on arrival in the Senate doesn’t mean that the Obama administration won’t try to implement parts of it by executive order.

    After all, if Obama intended to obey the law, we would never have had Fast and Furious, would we?

    So if this actually obtains and somehow it passes through to regulation, let me ask?  Will those funny looking little men in the blue hats come and try to get my guns?  No, seriously.  Will they?  Oh, please God let it be so.

    But What About Those Australian Gun Laws?

    BY Herschel Smith
    6 years, 6 months ago

    The Guardian:

    Moviegoers were lucky to escape unhurt after three men and a teenage girl armed with guns and a machete stormed the foyer of a Sydney cinema in a “brazen and shocking” robbery, police say.

    The incident at the suburban Roseville Cinemas on Monday night put the lives of families and children at risk, north shore Detective Inspector Carole Dowsen told reporters.

    “It was a very brazen attack, something that we actually think is shocking,” Dowsen said. “They’re going to a movie cinema, it’s early and there could be children around, and they’ve got a shotgun.

    “It’s extremely lucky that nobody was hurt.”

    The NSW opposition police spokesman, Nathan Rees, said it reflected a sad state of affairs in Sydney.

    “Nobody expects to be threatened with a machete or a shotgun as they go to the cinema,” he said.

    Shocked, the police are!  Shocked!  This is ruining the narrative, you know, this gun related crime stuff in Australia.  With their gun laws, they are supposed to be Shangri La.

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