Concerning Covid-19: All Of Your Models Are Wrong!

BY Herschel Smith
2 years, 3 months ago

At the very beginning of this outbreak, while I didn’t dismiss the threat of the Coronavirus, I stated to several friends online, and to family and extended family, that we haven’t yet heard the whole story on this.  It’s buried, and if anyone knows it all, he isn’t talking, or if he does, he’ll probably not be talking for long.  He’ll disappear.

I was perhaps the first out of the gate saying that this was an engineered virus.  My background is engineering and mathematical model development, and so the lack of background with microbiology caused most people to ignore my statements.  But to me, the facts that this virus hasn’t learned to live among the population without killing its host, is the perfect admixture of SARs, Bat-SARs and HIV to cause problems with humans, and came from near a weapons lab, along with the Chinese doctrine of unrestricted warfare, pointed to something much more sinister than a wet market.  I would also mention my views on the second law of thermodynamics and increasing entropy, and the virtual perfection in development of this pathogen versus the stochastic diminution that would occur in nature.

Then along came Paul Cotrell’s video (he has many more since then) followed by the Epoch Times research, in which the microbiology studies were supplemented by the paper trail, and it suddenly became a little more difficult to dismiss my assertions.

Next up, this post addresses this same issue in at least as comprehensive a fashion as Dr. Cotrell’s analysis, and it is must reading if you really want to understand the origin of this virus.

The bureaucracy is now arguing that this virus came from the deepest part of China in a bat cave somewhere (note that this is a modification of the paradigm they gave earlier, which is that it came from the wet market near Wuhan, an argument that fell flat when it became wider knowledge that many of the very early and original Coronavirus patients had no connection whatsoever to the wet market and never went there).  Google “patient 31.”  This is an actual person with a number, meaning that they know about patients 0 – 30, and exactly where they were and weren’t, and more than likely how they got the virus.

There model then was wrong, and their model now is wrong (or better, a lie).  Furthermore, they continue to argue that Hydroxychloroquine isn’t an effective therapeutic and are trying to do their very best to prove it (I have multiple documents in my possession to the N.C. hospital system concerning this very subject).  They want Remdesivir to be in wide use, being a patented drug, and able to make a lot of money for big Pharma.

Their epidemiological models were wrong from the beginning, and are still wrong today.  The CDC has been fighting gun violence, obesity, and racism, so anything to do with biology and analytical statistics is rather too difficult for them.  Apparently, the CDC has become a FedGov jobs program for people who can’t otherwise do real work.

Just recently I stumbled across another interesting video where a doctor treating Coronavirus patients in New York challenged the entire paradigm for treatment of this disease.  This is necessary watching, and the authority he brings stands based on experience, and in my opinion shouldn’t be questioned.  He’s been there and done it.  I haven’t, and you haven’t.

So here it’s appropriate to point out that we’ve also discussed the model for treatment of this disease.

When the red blood cell gets to the alveoli, or the little sacs in your lungs where all the gas exchange happens, that special little iron ion can flip between FE2+ and FE3+ states with electron exchange and bond to some oxygen, then it goes off on its little merry way to deliver o2 elsewhere.

Here’s where COVID-19 comes in. Its glycoproteins bond to the heme, and in doing so that special and toxic oxidative iron ion is “disassociated” (released). It’s basically let out of the cage and now freely roaming around on its own.

Without the iron ion, hemoglobin can no longer bind to oxygen. Once all the hemoglobin is impaired, the red blood cell is essentially turned into a Freightliner truck cab with no trailer and no ability to store its cargo.. it is useless and just running around with COVID-19 virus attached to its porphyrin.

This, I observed, is like carboxyhemoglobin, where carbon monoxide binds with the red blood cells and doesn’t just leave no room oxygen (it’s worse than that), but it hangs on and doesn’t give room for oxygen until the patient is treated in a hyperbaric chamber.

Now, it’s important to note that there are reactions to this author’s assertions like in the comments to this article written by a smarter-than-thou researcher.

Another dubious link.

Just who is ‘libertymavenstock’? What qualifications to they have to ELI5?
What is with ridiculous lines like:

‘Well, a few had some things eerily correct (cough Trump cough), especially with Hydroxychloroquine with Azithromicin[sic], but we’ll get to that in a minute.’

There is a big quote in that article and I can’t see where it is from.

How could anyone take such an article seriously?

I guess the doctor’s conclusions from New York would seem to justify the assertion that something is happening in the blood to cause problems with the uptake of oxygen and delivery to the cells.

You see, smarter-than-thou writers and commenters who know everything tell you what they know, and most often they’re wrong.  In this particular case, the entire treatment paradigm may be so wrong that it’s harming patients rather than helping them.  And smarter-than-thou commenters and researchers who do this sort of thing are most often proven wrong if they just waited a little while, but are never held to account.  It’s embarrassing that they aren’t embarrassed by it all.  It’s sort of like watching a speaker piss in his pants or fart out loud in front of a room full of people.  The listeners almost can’t watch, cover their faces, speak in hushed tones, and generally want him to stop.  Some laugh.  These smarter-than-thou folks are pissing in their pants, and are hoisted on their own petard.

Next up, the model you had squirreled away for who’s involved in all of this at the root level, is wrong too.  This video will help.

The source video is here.  You see, up until very recently, the NIH was neck deep in all of this research, Harvard, UNC and Canada being involved before that.

There are sinister forces at work, and what you’re being told about how this virus originated, how it is spreading, how society should behave, what’s effective as a therapeutic, what treatment paradigm needs to be followed, and who stands to benefit from it all, is a story the full extent of which hasn’t yet been told, but is being teased out by very good researchers little by little.

Even the textual underpinnings of the narrative has changed.  “Social distancing” was the byword before now.  I recently drove into S.C. and as soon as I did I passed road signs that said in alternating lights, “Go home … stay home.”  You’re beginning to see all of that fade in favor of “contact tracing.”  They know you object, but they are going to help by doing it without you even having to put an App on your cell phone.  Google and Apple are their partners in health.  They are willing to bet that you’re so desperate to return to work that you’ll accept just about anything to make a living again.

Jettison your models.  They’re no good.  Not a single one of them.

Trackbacks & Pingbacks


  1. On April 19, 2020 at 9:47 pm, Dan said:

    Statistical modeling of disease processes in humans is a very difficult task at best. It requires mountains of accurate data from a diverse subject base. We have VERY little data and it’s quite limited in scope. This makes predictions virtually impossible to make. Add in the fact that there is a horrible evil agenda at work behind the scenes and you have the recipe for disaster and destruction.

  2. On April 20, 2020 at 5:17 am, Tom said:

    Thank you for the thoughtful post. There has been an incredible dearth of testing and indeed resistance to testing. That dearth of testing was intentional IMO. The HCQ supression was/is criminal manslaughter IMO.

    I picture the chinese cozying up to our politicians and getting them to participate in an operation like this one using partisanship and promises. How difficult do you think it would be to turn someone as venal, vapid and dull as Nancy Pelosi? Would it be that difficult to gather a few governors for the show? Cuomo? Inslee? Northam? Raimondo? Newsome? A full media enabled coup on “OrangemanBad” including foreign agents buying US governers and killing old and fat people to achieve their sick twisted goal of US destruction. Full disclosure I’m not an “Orange man” fanboi. The red team blue team internecine squabble is approaching “it’s apex” to borrow a phrase from ComradCuomo. You may not be interested in flugaloo but flugaloo is interested in you. Thanks again for your work on this and your thoughtful commentary throughout this bizarre episode.

  3. On April 20, 2020 at 5:46 am, WiscoDave said:

    This is interesting in retrospect. How many that oppose reopening their states are on this “list?”

  4. On April 20, 2020 at 6:46 am, ragman said:

    Kizzmekia Corbett is the “lead” researcher on the govt’s vaccine team. She blames the fact that the Swarzers are dying at a disproportional rate on White racism. According to her, the death rate has nothing to do with unhealthy lifestyles and filthy personal hygiene. There will never be a vaccine to prevent Chinese virus infection.

  5. On April 20, 2020 at 7:24 am, Dr. Bruce A. Wineman said:

    I, too, believe we are being kept in the dark and the approach to this problem has been wrong. If I am looking for the “boogy man”, I will want to believe the most sinister of the theories. I am at the point where that may not be an over reach. We all know, “if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, etc”. I have been suggesting that we look at the treatment side and consider the use of Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine as a prophylaxis for this problem. The arguments that it is not “approved”, and “there has not been sufficient testing” are all BOGUS! These drugs have been approved for the “use in humans” or they could not be used to treat anything. The second level of approval is, likely, more to protect the original drug manufacturer for a time to recoup some of their money. However, there are many drugs in current use that are not approved for a specific diagnosis. One that comes to mind is hCG (human chorionic gonadotropin). This has been used for more than thirty years to induce ovulation for IVF/ET though never approved for that use. The testing issue is BOGUS as well. These two drugs were used on over 500,000 humans between 1962 and 1975 during that event called the War in Vietnam. If you go to the CDC website you can find recommendations for the use when you visit your friends/relatives in the Philippines. It is a dose of 500 mg of the salt(phosphate) ONCE starting a week before leaving and once/wk while there and for 4 weeks after return. There are, anecdotally, patients that have been on these meds for RA (rheumatoid arthritis) and Lupus that can not recall the last time they had a viral illness. Why do we not give this prophylactic regimen to those in the seriously effected areas of NYC and New Orleans? The risk is extremely low and they would assist in determining the potential efficacy of this approach. We have ALLOWED someone to stand up and shout “Fire” in the middle of a crowded theater and the MSM has propagandized us to DEATH!

  6. On April 20, 2020 at 7:52 am, Ned2 said:

    Thanks for seeking the truth, Herschel.
    It’s much appreciated.

  7. On April 20, 2020 at 7:55 am, Chris H. said:

    Thanks Herschel.

    A few other citizen journalists with additional reporting to consider;

  8. On April 20, 2020 at 9:02 am, Fred said:

    I have considered that TPTB may very well know that the source is a biolab and that’s why they attempted to shut down the world. They got scared that at the first, having never seen it in human to human transmission or its behavior in the wild, this thing might be a monster of a bio-weapon.

    All attempts to say it’s not a bio-weapon of known origin beg one question; If it’s just a flu, why the end of the world measures? Which leaves me with a choice but not really; they are just statist trash making bio-weapons and risking us all for fun and profit, or it’s just a flu and they are statist trash for shutting down the economy for no real reason beyond your average flu season. They are caught in their own web of lies either way but will not, will never admit it because you are stupid cattle that need to be managed.

  9. On April 20, 2020 at 10:26 am, TRX said:

    I was talking with my GP last week. COVID came up, and he commented that he’d dispensed a hydroxychloroquine as an anti-malarial when he was a young medic in Vietnam, and had noticed that it seemed to help with flu symptoms. That particular off-list use was likely widely known at the time.

  10. On April 20, 2020 at 12:39 pm, TheOtherGeorge said:

    “You’re beginning to see all of that fade in favor of “contact tracing…They are willing to bet that you’re so desperate to return to work that you’ll accept just about anything to make a living again.”

    – There- you nailed their goal in two sentences.

  11. On April 21, 2020 at 8:06 am, Ned said:

    From the third link above, I found this to be particularly frightening:

    “once it’s been circulating in a population for long enough the Wuhan Strain may be able to reinfect its own past hosts and use this molecular hijacking on antibodies left from its own previous infection to become far more virulent, regardless of whether or not someone has been exposed to other coronaviruses before COVID-19.”

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This article is filed under the category(s) Politics and was published April 19th, 2020 by Herschel Smith.

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