This is a very long and detailed article and study on pricing yesteryear and today on a whole host of things. I’ll leave it to the reader to study for himself, but here are snippets.
At a glance, most major life expenses have increased roughly 3x to 4x over 40 years. This sets a baseline expectation: if guns and ammo followed the same trend, we’d expect similar increases.
But they didn’t, at least not evenly across the board …
The mid-1980s marked the early adoption of high-capacity 9mm pistols, often called “Wonder Nines.”
The introduction of the Glock 17 into the U.S. market was particularly significant:
- Polymer frame construction (revolutionary at the time)
- Higher magazine capacity than revolvers
- Lower manufacturing cost
Law enforcement agencies began transitioning away from revolvers, a shift that would later drive massive civilian demand for 9mm pistols and ammunition.
This shift is one of the key reasons why 9mm ammo became so dominant (and eventually so affordable) by 2026 …
In 1986, a box of 9mm cost $22.50, or about $0.45 per round.
In 2026, it averages $10.00 per box, or $0.20 per round.
Even without adjusting for inflation, that’s a dramatic decrease. When adjusted for inflation, 9mm is significantly cheaper today than it was in the 1980s.
At the same time, less common calibers (.38 Special, .45 ACP) have become relatively more expensive due to lower production volume and niche demand.
Well, .45 ACP certainly isn’t a niche demand round for me because I shoot God’s round. Anyway, one thing they may have wanted to fold in what the cost of powder because of the war in Ukraine which if I’m not mistaken is driving pricing up and availability down and making it more difficult to meet velocity advertising on the boxes.