Articles by Herschel Smith

Uh oh.  There is war between the manufacturers.

I don’t have a dog in this fight.

I guess ultimately it depends upon exactly how the patent paperwork reads and exactly what they took credit for.  I know a patent and copyright attorney.  It gets really complicated, very quickly.

Sitting at the table of the Father, obeying His moral law, as a sovereign individual, at peace with others.

I still think it’s an impressive cartridge, with power greater than 30-30 or 300 Blackout, able to be shot from a MSR, and much less recoil than .450 Bushmaster.

NSSF on Firearms sales.

• The estimated total number of firearms in civilian possession from 1986-2018 is 422.9 million, according to data reported in the ATF’s Firearms Commerce Report in the United States 2019 report and including the preliminary 2018 Annual Firearms Manufacturing and Exportation Report (AFMER) figures.
• 17,740,000 Modern Sporting Rifles are in private ownership today.
• More than half (54%) of all rifles produced in 2017 were modern sporting rifles.
• In 2017, 7,901,218 total firearms were produced and imported. Of those, 4,411,923 were pistols and revolvers, 2,821,945 were rifles and 667,350 were shotguns.
• An interim 2018 estimate showed a total 7,660,772 total firearms were produced and imported. Of those 4,277,971 were pistols and revolvers, 2,846,757 were rifles and 535,994 were shotguns. Those are interim reports and will be updated as complete information becomes available.
• Firearms-ammunition manufacturing accounted for nearly 12,000 employees producing over $4.1 billion in goods shipped in 2017. An estimated 8.1 billion rounds, of all calibers and gauges, were produced in 2018 for the U.S. market.

So how’s that plan to confiscate 18 million MSRs going, controllers?  You think you’ll get them all?

Here is a useful graph from Ammoland.

There has been a general trend upwards for a very long time.  Excel or TableCurve-2D could easily fit a smoothed curve with that data with a decent correlation coefficient.  Do you see that increase right at the end of 2019?  It’s seasonal, no doubt, like the rest of the repeatable perturbations.

But I don’t expect to see it go back down very far or fast in 2020.  I think 2020 is the year you want to be in the firearms manufacturing and sales business.

Via WRSA, this is a worthy read about Ruby Ridge.

What a farce.  All of the things that happened at Ruby Ridge over an inch or less of barrel length.  Because Congress.  Because rulers.

Survival Blog, from a writer named Vigilant in Virginia.

 … 22 Virginia counties have adopted second amendment sanctuary resolutions. My county was among them. I went to the recent public hearing regarding this matter and was joined there by several hundred patriotic Americans in support of their right to keep and bear arms. Many speakers boldly noted to the Board of Supervisors that the Second Amendment is not about hunting, but maintaining an armed citizenry to inhibit government tyranny. The turnout and knowledge level of these fellow citizens is encouraging and makes me hopeful that freedom will be defended, that many will not simply capitulate to socialism or worse.

However, I must temper the enthusiasm of my fellow patriots. The Supervisors in my county have at times taken breathtakingly spineless actions in order to raise taxes, to have someone else to blame. And our county is poorly run by a good old boy network of people growing government for their own benefit. These people protect their own hind ends at all costs, and they commit to no position that will cost them a dime or any credibility with the sleepy voters. Let’s not think that all of a sudden these wimps have awakened to the reality of militant liberalism and are ready to fight. Nothing could be further from the truth.

The resolutions being adopted have no force of law or regulation. The Supervisors in Virginia counties have no authority over local sheriffs, and they have no sway over the State Police, National Guard, Federal law enforcement, or anyone else who might be tasked with gun confiscation. Right before passing the 2A resolution, our Board recognized some EMS personnel for good work, and the 2A document has just as much legal weight as the certificates of appreciation handed to the firemen.

The sheriff stood up in our meeting and proclaimed loudly that he was not going to ignore enforcement of any law, but he is hearing our concerns. He qualified his support multiple times, while sounding like he is on our side. Only time will tell.

Look, when the order for gun confiscation comes down, any sheriff who does not comply will eventually be removed by force by the feds or State Police. If any county politician stands up against them, they will be removed as well. I’ve long believed that gun confiscation will not be practical to implement until food rationing is in place, where the government will have leverage over the population and law enforcement through selective food distribution. Just like in Connecticut and New Jersey today where outlawing firearms/magazines has resulted in embarrassingly few surrenders of hardware, gun owners are not going to give up their firearms without either a fight, or being starved out.

What these 2A sanctuary counties are doing is great, as far as it goes, but don’t expect your local sheriff’s deputies to block the Fed’s access to your home when the order happens. This is the order you may not even hear about until that knock comes at your door. All politicians do everything to serve themselves, all the time, without exception.

It’s just as I’ve said all along.  And I would add LEOs to the mix of people who serve themselves, or perhaps “Vigilant in Virginia” is doing that by categorizing them as politicians.

Declarations of sanctuaries is merely symbolic and can only be a first step.  It sends a message, but unless and until local and county politicians and LEOs are willing to put their careers and safety on the line arresting State or FedGov agents who attempt to enforce confiscatory orders, this goes nowhere.  It will have been nothing more than a flash in a pan.

In the comments there is this interesting web site, https://keepVA2A.com, which is tracking sanctuary counties and the ongoing meetings and protests.

Prior: Intelligence Report From Virginia

News from Virginia.

VIRGINIA BEACH, Va. (WAVY) — The Second Amendment of the U.S. Constitution was at the front of the minds of both elected officials and residents Tuesday night.

When Virginia Beach City Council met Tuesday for its first meeting of the month, the Second Amendment wasn’t listed on the agenda. Yet hundreds showed up to voice their thoughts on the city becoming a “Second Amendment sanctuary.”

So much so that the City Council Chambers and all of city hall reached capacity, leaving even more people outside during the meeting. By 6:30 p.m. the crowd had swelled to the point that both the Virginia Beach Sheriff’s Office and police department were on-scene to close the road down in front of city hall.

The gun rights advocates wore orange stickers saying “Guns Save Lives” in the shadow of Building 2 at the municipal center, where six months earlier a gunman killed 12 and injured 4 others.

10 On Your Side was unable to hear who spoke before the council because of capacity and “open mic night” comments are not recorded. However, we do know one of the speakers was Vincent Smith, Division Manager for the Virginia Beach Department of Public Works, who spearheaded the request. He also has created a petition calling for a change in a policy that prohibits city employees from having guns at work.

Outside former Republican congressman and U.S. Senate candidate Scott Taylor addressed the crowd.

“I don’t want to be a felon for protecting myself and exercising my constitutional rights,” Taylor said to cheers.

He called the resolution “a political statement that tells Richmond ‘you will not infringe on our constitutional rights’.”

Members from Moms Demand Action, a dissenting group that focuses on demanding “reasonable solutions” to gun violence in America, was also in attendance.

“Even though you might see a lot of people here, obviously Virginians came out and voted for gun safety legislation this session,” said Sibel Galindez, a co-lead with the Hampton Roads chapter.

Galindez said what alarms her the most is the notion that policy could be ignored.

“Lawlessness has no place in Virginia Beach,” Galindez said.

The “sanctuary” movement has spread in Virginia since the Nov. 5 election, when Democrats gained majority control of both the State Senate and House of Delegates. Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam has said his party’s leaders will push for gun control measures and more than a dozen bills concerning firearms have already been pre-filed.

So far, 23 counties have passed resolutions ensuring they will not use their public resources to enforce any unconstitutional gun laws.

However political experts and even Taylor admitted that the state would ultimately be able to enforce its laws.

“At this point, we just have to figure out what we are empowered to do and to see if we can find out something. But obviously we have to protect the Second Amendment, we’ll figure out a way,” said Virginia Beach Mayor Bobby Dyer following the meeting.

Virginia Beach was not the only locality to hear public support for the Second Amendment on Tuesday night.

Gloucester County voted to become a “Second Amendment sanctuary” Tuesday after another lengthy public hearing.

“Lawlessness has no place in Virginia Beach,” Galindez said.  But the only time the controllers believe that is when they control the laws.

I disagree with the notion that the state would be able to enforce its laws.  It depends upon which laws and how.

If the county officers are willing to prevent state officers from confiscatory orders, they can stop it.  If they are only willing to refuse themselves to be involved, it cannot be stopped and these protests are merely symbolic.

As for purchase of new firearms, it’s legal to buy long guns in adjacent states.  It’s not legal under current ATF rules to buy handguns anywhere else without an FFL review in your home state before the weapon crosses state lines.  That’s a problem because the FedGov controls that, not the state.  Here it depends upon just how far the sanctuary counties and cities are willing to go to prevent FedGov from arrest and prosecutorial powers in sanctuaries.

So I see it as entirely feasible to prevent confiscation if they are willing.  I see it as much more problematic to ensure the purchase of new [illegal] firearms.

It gets spicier from here.  We’re only just beginning.  Both sides are feeling froggy.  Patriots have some real work to do in Roanoke.

GOA.

Springfield, VA — On December 2, 2019, the Home Defense and Competitive Shooting Act was introduced in the House of Representatives by Congressman Roger Marshall.

The bill undoes the egregiously unconstitutional registration, taxation, and regulation of short-barreled rifles by removing them from the National Firearms Act (NFA) and forcing the ATF to destroy all related records.

“The introduction of this bill is yet another landmark towards restoring the constitutionally-recognized right to keep and bear arms without infringement by federal regulations and whimsical rulemaking by anti-gun D.C. bureaucrats,” said Aidan Johnston, Director of Federal Affairs for GOA. “When the Founding Fathers wrote the Second Amendment, intending to protect individuals from infringements, they did not ‘leave room’ for a federal agency to regulate barrel lengths on rifles or pistols.”

Under current law, the difference between a “pistol AR-15” and a “short barreled rifle AR-15” is ATF rulemaking and mind-numbing definitions and differences between “rifle stocks” and “pistol braces.”

GOA supports a full repeal of the NFA and has challenged the NFA’s unconstitutional regulation of suppressors with the Silencers Help Us Save Hearing Act, the Hearing Protection Act, and Kettler v. US. But for far too long, other aspects of the National Firearms Act—an act of gun control by nature—have gone unchallenged in Congress.

“Now gun owners have a legislative vehicle to attack another element of the National Firearms Act’s meaningless regulation,” Johnston concluded. “GOA urges every member of the House of Representatives to cosponsor this bill.”

Okay.  Even if this goes nowhere (as I suspect it will in the den of demons, gargoyles and pit vipers we call Washington, D.C.), I am now a fan of two members of the House, the first being Thomas Massie.  Roger Marshall can be added to the list of good guys.  It’s a short list.

Shooting Illustrated had an assessment of the Barnes Precision Carbine.  It seems a nice enough gun, although for the price you’re getting into BCM and Rock River Arms prices.  I do like the looks of the hand guard, though.  But what caught my eye was this chart.

I find this fascinating.  I’m a wonk, I admit.  But even if you don’t find it as interesting as I do, I’d request that you [a] see this first and foremost as a fishing expedition, not a tutorial (because that’s not my job), and [b] keep track of similar data and send to me as you run across it.

So here’s my specific interest.  Technically, MOA is a measure of precision, not accuracy.  Accuracy can be modified based on sight (or optic) adjustments.  If you don’t understand the difference between accuracy and precision, without going through the mathematics of the Central Limit Theorem, you can see this article.  So now you’ll understand why I am using the term precision for this information.

The precision is lower for the 62 grain bullets than for 55 grain or 73 grain.  It would have been nice to see additional testing with Sierra MatchKing 77 grain OTM.  The difference above is nontrivial.

We saw in a previous post (not because I knew this information, but because I know how to find this information) that when the Army tested the M855A1 round, they were using accurized 1:8 twist barrels, not 1:7 twist as per MilSpec.  They got worse precision with the new ammunition with 1:7 twist barrels.  The M856 tracer round is 63.7 grains, and the Army had to show that the barrel could stabilize the round in order to justify the new bullet.

A twist rate that is too high can over-stabilize bullets, leading to “keyholing.”  We know that, and so it’s important not to overdo barrel twist.  It is fairly standard knowledge that use of the 1:7 twist leads to slightly less precision for the 55 grain, and maybe for the 62 grain green tip.  But it manages to stabilize the heavier rounds, including the rounds that are apparently in current use within SpecOps.

This stabilization is necessary because of changes made to the service rifle.  The original M-16 had a much milder twist rate than does the shorter barrels in use today.  The shorter barrels are a direct result of trouble getting into and out of vehicles for dismounted operations, going through buildings and around walls, and the general requirements of MOUT.  In order to make the ammunition work for these shorter barrels, the engineers had to monkey around with twist.

Now I’m to my main point.  I take interest in the fact that the precision is lower for the medium weight bullets.  I’ll stipulate that the variables are many, including perhaps the most important one, barrel harmonics.  I’d love to talk to some of the original engineers and test shooters for the newest Army round, but it’s likely that I’d never get the truth.

But what I can do is compile data of my own.  I’m wondering if this behavior stands up with other twist rates?  I’m also interested in whether barrel length plays a role.  Why did the precision decrease with medium weight bullets, and recover at the lower and higher ends?

At any rate, if you run across any data for 1:9 twist, 1:8 twist, or any more data on 1:7 twist, using different bullet weights, I’d be very interested to learn the precision of the groups and plot for future reference.

Thanks in advance.