The Tangled Web Of Analysis On The Russian Military Operations In Ukraine

BY Herschel Smith
2 years, 4 months ago

I consider it to be virtually impossible to get real news or even good analysis of the situation in Ukraine from the legacy media.  The propaganda and disinformation is far too thick – from all sides, including our own.  You can safely ignore most of it.

But this may be the most tangled analysis I’ve ever seen, and it’s symbolic of the sort of thing you’d read at the Small Wars Journal.  I’ll only give you the summary paragraph.

Despite the political influence of Ukraine’s veteran constituency, popular support for Ukraine’s far-right paramilitary forces is negligible. Biletsky and other members of far-right parties lost their seat in Ukraine’s Parliament—the Verkhovna Rada—in 2019. However, fascist paramilitary organizations could expand significantly in the wake of a Russian invasion. Ongoing civilian resistance training grant these organizations the opportunity to create widespread recruitment pools in the general populace. Further to that, a defeated democratic Ukraine would face a legitimacy crisis that extremist organizations like Azov and Right Sector could exploit to establish themselves politically, not unlike the Yugoslav Partisans in the Second World War. In this event, while NATO should refuse to recognize any Kremlin-appointed regime, it should likewise refuse to recognize any rebel Nazi government. Even if a strong opposition government led by Nazis may be enticing for the purpose of undermining a puppet regime, it would be a catastrophic mistake that would further destabilize the region and provide legitimacy to other far-right movements globally, particularly in the US.

The word Nazi is used about a 100,000 times in the commentary (I exaggerate only a little), and yet when trying to understand what a Nazi really is, there is only one URL which in effect subtly denies the very claim that the author is making.  The very best one can conclude is that a Nazi is an “ultra-nationalist.”

Um … okay.  I guess he means not a globalist.

Anyway, this author has a bit of twisted thinking in the summary, recommending that the U.S. take certain actions and recognize certain groups based on what he sees as a budding ultra-nationalist movement in the U.S.  Literally.  He recommends certain foreign policy actions based on what it might portend for groups he’s afraid of in the U.S.

You can’t make this sort of thing up.  This passes for “analysis” at SWJ.

I think he should give his college degrees back and sue them for breach of contract.  I’ve seen bad stuff before at SWJ, but never anything quite like this.  It sounds like a college freshman at Georgetown wrote it.


  1. On February 25, 2022 at 1:28 am, Dan said:

    The opposite of a globalist could be a nationalist. And Nazi is a euphemism for National Socialist….so the description while not totally accurate could be at least in the ballpark. But it’s become so complicated you need a program to know who all the players are.

  2. On February 25, 2022 at 7:46 am, Hudson H Luce said:

    “The 2019 Ukrainian presidential election was held on 31 March and 21 April in a two-round system.

    There were a total of 39 candidates for the election on the ballot. The 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia and the occupation of parts of Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast prevented around 12% of eligible voters from participating in the election. As no candidate received an absolute majority of the vote, a second round was held between the top two candidates, Volodymyr Zelensky, who played the role of Ukraine’s president in a popular television comedy and the incumbent president, Petro Poroshenko, on 21 April 2019. According to the Central Election Commission, Zelensky won the second round with 73.22% of the votes.[1][2][3]”

    They elected a comedian who “played the role of Ukraine’s president in a popular television comedy” as President. That’s the guy who is in office now.

  3. On February 25, 2022 at 8:46 am, Herschel Smith said:


    Hmm … IDK. I see no necessary correlation between “National Socialist” and “Ultra-nationalist,” whatever the later means.

    Nationalism isn’t the same thing as socialism.

    But then the commentary isn’t clear on much of anything.

  4. On February 25, 2022 at 9:55 am, Fred said:

    Herschel beat me to it. Nationalism, considering those of your own natal heritage first, isn’t the same thing as socialism which is a failed scheme of authoritarian centralized economic controls.

    Honestly, I hope Ukraine nationalists destroy all comers. Globalization wrecked my country. Ukraine needs to fight to the last man.

  5. On February 25, 2022 at 10:17 am, George 1 said:

    In other words the “Far Right” is the worst thing ever. If if succeeds, even just a little, it could help those awful white supremacists in America and might be harmful to Globo Homo.

  6. On February 25, 2022 at 11:11 am, Dov said:

    NAZI stands for National Socialist. Nazis would not vote Jews into the positions of both President and Prime Minister of Ukraine, as the Ukrainians have done.

  7. On February 25, 2022 at 12:02 pm, billrla said:

    The fact that the situation in Ukraine is so confused underscores the fact that the situation in Ukraine, vis-a-vis its relationship to Russia, has always been confused. Over the years, U.S. meddling, largely by corrupt and ideologically twisted Democrats has only made the situation worse.

  8. On February 25, 2022 at 4:48 pm, JoeFour said:

    Just found this (after turning off Fox News in disgust). From the Saker blog:

    “Nightvision on February 25, 2022 · at 4:10 pm EST/EDT

    I have been following the conflict very closely. A few very important but random updates on KEY ISSUES:

    1. Russia is now confirmed to have captured both british NLAW and American JAVELIN systems. The NLAWS they have captured multiple, and Javelin only 1 so far.

    2. The citizens of many Ukrainian cities are actually posting secret ‘ambush’ locations of Ukrainian forces online in order to notify the Russian army (yes this “treason” is dangerous and brave for them to do). This has happened so far both in Kiev and Kherson/surrounding areas. This shows that many Ukrainian citizens in fact support the Russian army in liberating them from the Nazi regime.

    3. Some people in the enemy sphere are commenting on the fact that initial Russian SEAD/DEAD suppression strikes were not as effective as they hoped because Ukraine continues to have some air capabilities. The reason for this is very simple, the U.S. gave Ukraine intelligence on exactly when the invasion would occur, and it has now been confirmed that the large majority of Ukrainian air assets took off on the night of the first airstrikes, went to the air, and many of them were transported to nearby Poland for safekeeping and are NOW coming back to safety. This includes (allegedly) the infamous Turkish TB2 drones as the Ukrainian side is now reporting they still have some left that have returned from hiding in Poland. There’s not much Russia can do about that, the fact that neighboring countries give aid to the enemy. When U.S. attacks a country in its many invasions unfortunately those countries usually don’t even have the luxury of having neighboring “allies” to help them conceal weapons like this, as U.S. generally turns everyone against said country via global hegemonic pressure.

    4. Another important topic that many enemy analysts have been incorrectly spouting off about. Some are saying that Russia is showing inferior capabilities because they have been ‘bogged down’ and haven’t taken Kiev as quickly as they intended. I’ve prepared some numbers to give you a comparison for the purpose of context.

    Russia is currently utilizing only a tiny fraction of its forces, roughly 20-30 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG’s) out of the roughly 60 it has prepared for this operation (which sit on the Russian side of the border still, waiting). This is equivalent to anywhere in the 20-40k troops count, roughly the same amount of troops as the late stage of Georgian operation. Keep in mind Russia’s entire Armed Forces is in the region of 800,000 – 1,000,000 troops (of all 3 branches) so you can get an idea what tiny fraction of Russia’s full potential is currently being used. The reason most experts are giving at the moment is Russia did not want to create mass casualties even amongst Ukrainian military/soldiers because they know that their fight is not against even the average Ukrainian soldier but rather specifically the more radicalized Nazi types. This is why Russia has held off on true “shock and awe” style campaign and has not even targeted troop massings, mostly targeting materiel and command objectives. In short, Putin is trying to achieve this campaign as “cleanly” as possible without creating generation blood-libel hatred between Ukrainians/Russians as the ultimate goal is to have the two countries as brotherhoods once again down the line, once the Nazi’s and such have been cleaned out.

    So to give you an idea of how Russia’s progress so far compares:

    Russia as I’ve said is using so far anywhere between about 20-50k troops vs. a Ukrainian armed forces that has total probably 200k++.

    In 2003, the U.S. and “allies” had a force of 309,000 that invaded from the south of Iraq on March 21. They finally captured Bagdad in the north about 450km on April 10th. Now, Iraq is a country of about 24 million people, Ukraine is 50 million. Ukraine is also 50% larger than Iraq by pure territorial area. So it took the U.S. with 300k troops almost 3 weeks, about 20+ days to go 450km and capture the capital.
    After only a single day of fighting Russia with its 20-50k troops has already reached Kiev and mostly encircled the capital.
    Now onto the speed, some are claiming Russia is going “slow” and is ‘bogged down’. At the height of the famed German Blitzkrieg in June 1944, the Nazi’s progressed as much as 50km per day into Soviet Territory. But when you average their rate of progress over the course of the entire Operation Barbarossa (up until they reached Moscow) the famed “Blitzkrieg” averages to about 9km per day.
    If you compute the numbers of U.S.’s invasion of Iraq that I gave, the U.S. did about 20km a day with a force of 300k troops against an army far smaller and weaker and less equipped than the Ukrainian army.
    In one plus days so far, Russia on some axes, such as the southern axis from Crimea towards Mariupol or Kherson which it is now storming, has averaged approximately 50-100km per day. This is so far DOUBLE THE RATE of advance that U.S.’s allied force of 310k managed to do in beaten down Iraq and upwards of double the rate of the famed “Blitzkrieg” of WW2. You can easily see this for yourself, just go on googlemaps and use the measurement tool of kilometers towards known captured cities like Melitopol, which is 125km from Crimea (reached in about a day) or Kiev which is 110km from Belarus border and has already been encircled on at least 2-3 sides. On other axes like border to Konotop (80km) Russia progresses at a rate of 50-60km a day. Folks, these are record breaking numbers. No force in history progresses this fast. The U.S. took 3 weeks to take Bagdad which is less than 450km from Kuwait and had a force of 300k troops. Russia is doing 60-100km a day with less than 50k men. This is astounding progress on the modern battlefield that I don’t think has ever been seen before, and Russia is using only a tiny fraction of its capabilities. The forces represented here are about 10% of Russia’s entire armed forces, and anywhere from 30-50% of the forces that have been mobilized for this specific operation in general.”

  9. On February 26, 2022 at 8:49 am, Bill Buppert said:

    Small Wars Journal like so many defense related sites (The War Zone, Defense News and the awful stuff seeping out of West Point) is captive to a single over-reaching narrative: all war is good for America and we must spend as much present and future government lucre as possible to be ready for the next big or small conflict. Since the creation of the US globalist order after Russia’s defeat of Germany in the War to Save Josef Stalin, the vaunted military-industrial complex has provided the world’s richest money laundering scheme for politicians in both the production of weapons and expenditure thereof planet-wide to advance the interest of the leviathan (and by extension, Deep) state.

    Sometimes the Army War College quarterly, Parameters. will publish something good but you have to wade through oceans of triumphalist messaging to get there.

    Outside of Ted Galen Carpenter, everyone writing from or to the DC orbit seems to be captive the sole legitimate narrative that American use of violence in foreign policy is not only necessary but a national good.

    I gave up on them years ago as a credible source of defense analysis.

    Per National Socialism [with an increasingly larger communist chaser], that has been the operative political framework in the US since 1933.

  10. On February 26, 2022 at 3:52 pm, Fred said:

    “Per National Socialism [with an increasingly larger communist chaser], that has been the operative political framework in the US since 1933.”

    ∆∆∆ THIS ∆∆∆

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URL

Leave a comment

You are currently reading "The Tangled Web Of Analysis On The Russian Military Operations In Ukraine", entry #29483 on The Captain's Journal.

This article is filed under the category(s) Politics and was published February 25th, 2022 by Herschel Smith.

If you're interested in what else the The Captain's Journal has to say, you might try thumbing through the archives and visiting the main index, or; perhaps you would like to learn more about TCJ.

26th MEU (10)
Abu Muqawama (12)
ACOG (2)
ACOGs (1)
Afghan National Army (36)
Afghan National Police (17)
Afghanistan (704)
Afghanistan SOFA (4)
Agriculture in COIN (3)
AGW (1)
Air Force (40)
Air Power (10)
al Qaeda (83)
Ali al-Sistani (1)
America (22)
Ammunition (278)
Animals (292)
Ansar al Sunna (15)
Anthropology (3)
Antonin Scalia (1)
AR-15s (373)
Arghandab River Valley (1)
Arlington Cemetery (2)
Army (87)
Assassinations (2)
Assault Weapon Ban (29)
Australian Army (7)
Azerbaijan (4)
Backpacking (3)
Badr Organization (8)
Baitullah Mehsud (21)
Basra (17)
BATFE (223)
Battle of Bari Alai (2)
Battle of Wanat (18)
Battle Space Weight (3)
Bin Laden (7)
Blogroll (3)
Blogs (24)
Body Armor (23)
Books (3)
Border War (18)
Brady Campaign (1)
Britain (38)
British Army (35)
Camping (5)
Canada (17)
Castle Doctrine (1)
Caucasus (6)
Center For a New American Security (8)
Charity (3)
China (16)
Christmas (16)
CIA (30)
Civilian National Security Force (3)
Col. Gian Gentile (9)
Combat Outposts (3)
Combat Video (2)
Concerned Citizens (6)
Constabulary Actions (3)
Coolness Factor (3)
COP Keating (4)
Corruption in COIN (4)
Council on Foreign Relations (1)
Counterinsurgency (218)
DADT (2)
David Rohde (1)
Defense Contractors (2)
Department of Defense (210)
Department of Homeland Security (26)
Disaster Preparedness (5)
Distributed Operations (5)
Dogs (15)
Donald Trump (27)
Drone Campaign (4)
EFV (3)
Egypt (12)
El Salvador (1)
Embassy Security (1)
Enemy Spotters (1)
Expeditionary Warfare (17)
F-22 (2)
F-35 (1)
Fallujah (17)
Far East (3)
Fathers and Sons (2)
Favorite (1)
Fazlullah (3)
FBI (39)
Featured (189)
Federal Firearms Laws (18)
Financing the Taliban (2)
Firearms (1,778)
Football (1)
Force Projection (35)
Force Protection (4)
Force Transformation (1)
Foreign Policy (27)
Fukushima Reactor Accident (6)
Ganjgal (1)
Garmsir (1)
general (15)
General Amos (1)
General James Mattis (1)
General McChrystal (44)
General McKiernan (6)
General Rodriguez (3)
General Suleimani (9)
Georgia (19)
Google (1)
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar (1)
Gun Control (1,651)
Guns (2,318)
Guns In National Parks (3)
Haditha Roundup (10)
Haiti (2)
Haqqani Network (9)
Hate Mail (8)
Hekmatyar (1)
Heroism (5)
Hezbollah (12)
High Capacity Magazines (16)
High Value Targets (9)
Homecoming (1)
Homeland Security (3)
Horses (2)
Humor (72)
Hunting (34)
ICOS (1)
IEDs (7)
Immigration (108)
India (10)
Infantry (4)
Information Warfare (4)
Infrastructure (4)
Intelligence (23)
Intelligence Bulletin (6)
Iran (171)
Iraq (379)
Iraq SOFA (23)
Islamic Facism (64)
Islamists (98)
Israel (19)
Jaish al Mahdi (21)
Jalalabad (1)
Japan (3)
Jihadists (81)
John Nagl (5)
Joint Intelligence Centers (1)
JRTN (1)
Kabul (1)
Kajaki Dam (1)
Kamdesh (9)
Kandahar (12)
Karachi (7)
Kashmir (2)
Khost Province (1)
Khyber (11)
Knife Blogging (7)
Korea (4)
Korengal Valley (3)
Kunar Province (20)
Kurdistan (3)
Language in COIN (5)
Language in Statecraft (1)
Language Interpreters (2)
Lashkar-e-Taiba (2)
Law Enforcement (6)
Lawfare (14)
Leadership (6)
Lebanon (6)
Leon Panetta (2)
Let Them Fight (2)
Libya (14)
Lines of Effort (3)
Littoral Combat (8)
Logistics (50)
Long Guns (1)
Lt. Col. Allen West (2)
Marine Corps (280)
Marines in Bakwa (1)
Marines in Helmand (67)
Marjah (4)
Media (68)
Medical (146)
Memorial Day (6)
Mexican Cartels (41)
Mexico (61)
Michael Yon (6)
Micromanaging the Military (7)
Middle East (1)
Military Blogging (26)
Military Contractors (5)
Military Equipment (25)
Militia (9)
Mitt Romney (3)
Monetary Policy (1)
Moqtada al Sadr (2)
Mosul (4)
Mountains (25)
MRAPs (1)
Mullah Baradar (1)
Mullah Fazlullah (1)
Mullah Omar (3)
Musa Qala (4)
Music (25)
Muslim Brotherhood (6)
Nation Building (2)
National Internet IDs (1)
National Rifle Association (95)
NATO (15)
Navy (30)
Navy Corpsman (1)
NCOs (3)
News (1)
NGOs (3)
Nicholas Schmidle (2)
Now Zad (19)
NSA (3)
NSA James L. Jones (6)
Nuclear (62)
Nuristan (8)
Obama Administration (221)
Offshore Balancing (1)
Operation Alljah (7)
Operation Khanjar (14)
Ossetia (7)
Pakistan (165)
Paktya Province (1)
Palestine (5)
Patriotism (7)
Patrolling (1)
Pech River Valley (11)
Personal (73)
Petraeus (14)
Pictures (1)
Piracy (13)
Pistol (4)
Pizzagate (21)
Police (653)
Police in COIN (3)
Policy (15)
Politics (973)
Poppy (2)
PPEs (1)
Prisons in Counterinsurgency (12)
Project Gunrunner (20)
PRTs (1)
Qatar (1)
Quadrennial Defense Review (2)
Quds Force (13)
Quetta Shura (1)
RAND (3)
Recommended Reading (14)
Refueling Tanker (1)
Religion (493)
Religion and Insurgency (19)
Reuters (1)
Rick Perry (4)
Rifles (1)
Roads (4)
Rolling Stone (1)
Ron Paul (1)
ROTC (1)
Rules of Engagement (75)
Rumsfeld (1)
Russia (37)
Sabbatical (1)
Sangin (1)
Saqlawiyah (1)
Satellite Patrols (2)
Saudi Arabia (4)
Scenes from Iraq (1)
Second Amendment (674)
Second Amendment Quick Hits (2)
Secretary Gates (9)
Sharia Law (3)
Shura Ittehad-ul-Mujahiden (1)
SIIC (2)
Sirajuddin Haqqani (1)
Small Wars (72)
Snipers (9)
Sniveling Lackeys (2)
Soft Power (4)
Somalia (8)
Sons of Afghanistan (1)
Sons of Iraq (2)
Special Forces (28)
Squad Rushes (1)
State Department (23)
Statistics (1)
Sunni Insurgency (10)
Support to Infantry Ratio (1)
Supreme Court (57)
Survival (186)
SWAT Raids (57)
Syria (38)
Tactical Drills (38)
Tactical Gear (14)
Taliban (168)
Taliban Massing of Forces (4)
Tarmiyah (1)
TBI (1)
Technology (21)
Tehrik-i-Taliban (78)
Terrain in Combat (1)
Terrorism (96)
Thanksgiving (13)
The Anbar Narrative (23)
The Art of War (5)
The Fallen (1)
The Long War (20)
The Surge (3)
The Wounded (13)
Thomas Barnett (1)
Transnational Insurgencies (5)
Tribes (5)
TSA (25)
TSA Ineptitude (14)
TTPs (4)
U.S. Border Patrol (6)
U.S. Border Security (19)
U.S. Sovereignty (24)
UAVs (2)
UBL (4)
Ukraine (10)
Uncategorized (98)
Universal Background Check (3)
Unrestricted Warfare (4)
USS Iwo Jima (2)
USS San Antonio (1)
Uzbekistan (1)
V-22 Osprey (4)
Veterans (3)
Vietnam (1)
War & Warfare (414)
War & Warfare (41)
War Movies (4)
War Reporting (21)
Wardak Province (1)
Warriors (6)
Waziristan (1)
Weapons and Tactics (79)
West Point (1)
Winter Operations (1)
Women in Combat (21)
WTF? (1)
Yemen (1)

June 2024
May 2024
April 2024
March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006

about · archives · contact · register

Copyright © 2006-2024 Captain's Journal. All rights reserved.