What a Second American Civil War Could Look Like

BY Herschel Smith
3 years, 12 months ago

Via David Codrea, this thought experiment by Mark Nuckols at Townhall.

I fear that there is a looming civil war on the horizon. It is not yet inevitable, but all true American patriots must be prepared for the coming battle. And the costs in blood will be heavy. This war will not be fought like the American Revolution or the Civil War of 1861-65, where disciplined armies observed the laws of war and respected civilian lives.

This war will be waged by far-left radicals and their deep-state puppet masters. For them, civilian casualties and massacres will not be moral evils, but merely part and parcel of their larger plan to “reconstruct” America. Their objective is simple: overthrow our constitutional order, destroy our way of life, and deprive us of our freedom, our liberties, our property, and our honor.

The Bolshevik October Revolution of 1917 was carried out by a mere few thousand party members in St. Petersburg. And it was sudden and unexpected, the Bolshevik Central Committee made the decision to launch a coup d’etat only hours before its execution. In fact, as late as July 1917 Lenin himself did not expect a communist revolution in his lifetime. The Russian Civil War that followed is a horrifying story of savage carnage and obscene violence.

In similar fashion, I believe one likely spark for the Second American Civil War will be the result of a coup d’etat carried out by anti-America extremists. It will catch most Americans by surprise. The coup plotters will act quickly to seize the critical levers of power, before any opposition has a chance to react. And they will be aided and abetted by the kinds of people Lenin referred to, contemptuously, as useful idiots.

The shock troops will come from the ranks of Antifa and radical anti-white elements of the Black Lives Matter movement. These fascist stormtroopers will be augmented by the even larger numbers of veterans of Occupy and other far-left movements. And jihadists from across the globe will flock to support this coup. But the real power will be behind the scenes, in the hands of the bureaucrats of the American deep state, who will see such a far-left coup as their best chance to preserve and expand their far-reaching powers, but which President Trump threatens. 

[ … ]

America’s external enemies will not sit by idly. The new revolutionary government will offer generous terms in return for “foreign assistance” (meaning secret police), and troops if necessary. Expect a Treaty of San Antonio whereby Mexico “recovers her historic territories” of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and southern California. Russia will expect a return of Alaska (and its oil) to the Motherland. China and the European Union will demand we surrender our economic sovereignty and become vassals of Beijing and Brussels. And, of course, the United Nations will offer to send in the “blue helmets” to “restore civil order.” North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, and Iran will all also want in on the spoils in return for “technical support.”

And what will be the agenda of this regime? The first priority is obvious: the confiscation of all privately owned guns. An armed citizenry ready and prepared to defend its rights would be an intolerable threat to the regime. The next logical step would be identifying any and all possible sources of opposition and interning them and their families in “re-education” camps. The third priority will be a radical redistribution of property. It would destroy the American free-enterprise economy, but short-term it would guarantee the loyal support of all those hoping for a share of the spoils.

I disagree with two parts of his analysis.  First, I do consider CWII to be inevitable.

Second, I don’t think this will involve any foreign actors in large numbers.

Why?  Because this place will be a hell hole if and when this happens.  It will be Sarajevo on steroids.  It will make Bosnia look like a Sunday School picnic.

Most foreign actors with any sense will want to steer clear of this place.


  1. On July 22, 2020 at 3:21 am, skybill said:

    Hi Guy’s…,
    With all due respects to “Claire,”… Is it really too early to start shooting the Bastards???

    Audentes, Fortuna, Ivat……
    aka… gunnerbubba1776

  2. On July 22, 2020 at 5:41 am, Matt said:

    “ It will be Sarajevo on steroids. It will make Bosnia look like a Sunday School picnic.”
    You took the words right out of my mouth. As I was reading the description, I was thinking Sarajevo 2.0.

  3. On July 22, 2020 at 6:08 am, anonymous said:

    I agree – CWII is becoming inevitable. And people who came to this country for the ‘freebies’ will very likely leave as soon as possible. There are a lot of available weapons and the frustration with ‘The Others’ is becoming difficult to watch and tolerate. A lot of Good and Bad People will likely die from the result of this. It will not be long, likely less than a year, maybe half that but we will be de-populated by at least a 1/3rd. This includes people who will not receive critical daily meds and dying from lack of these.

  4. On July 22, 2020 at 6:29 am, penses said:

    “Most foreign actors with any sense will want to steer clear of this place.”

    Europe is a basket case with NATO about to collapse.

    Russia is too weak.

    China is involved in every level of business and government monetarily. Big Tech grovels at their feet. And they are putting a lot of money into gun control which indicates they may be interested in disarming Joe Sixpack before they make a move. They don’t care about the “general public” being armed, knowing that, like the McCloskeys, owning a gun and knowing how to use it are light years apart.

    When the Empire starts bringing the troops home to quell “domestic unrest” then the fun will begin. If the army is unable to succeed and it becomes warlord against warlord a foreign power may play power broker.

    You are right. Nobody in their right mind would want to get involved in the mess that is coming. They stayed out during Civil War I. There is no indication it will be any different this time. As the legions come home I am sure Russia and China will move in to fill the gaps left by the Empire which will create enough friction between the two to keep them busy without worrying about the late, great USA.

    @anonymous Starvation will be the big killer. In the big cities the urban outdoorsmen are already begging for food instead of money because the dumpsters have been emptied due to the created economic collapse. No restaurants, no garbage. No jobs means more homeless. The friction will increase between the vying groups of hungry people and then the food riots will start. Starvation is the ugliest way to die. It is like drowning in slow motion.

  5. On July 22, 2020 at 7:08 am, Daniel S. said:

    That’s comical….”Storm Troopers” and “Shock Tripp’s”….. I don’t even know what to say regarding those comments about a bunch of college aged liberal arts kids. I don’t care how bad crime is in the United States or what state they are in…. The crime or gang wars are not even within the same reality of combat in a war zone. Not even close. I think it’s impossible for someone to even know how to be a “shock trooper” or “storm trooper” if they’ve never even seen combat. And veterans will put an end to any miserable attempt to subjugate the American people. These are facts. Even if the US military is involved, Afghanistan taught us that “insurgents” (patriots of that country) can stop a uniformed military in its tracks. The difference in Afghanistan is that we have more combat vets and better trained and equipped insurgents. I don’t think it will at all be difficult. It will be a blood bath though

  6. On July 22, 2020 at 7:09 am, Daniel S. said:

    Sorry for typos, speech text sucks

  7. On July 22, 2020 at 7:54 am, penses said:

    Daniel S. said: “That’s comical”

    “Mark Nuckols teaches law and business in Moscow. He has a JD from Georgetown and an MBA from Dartmouth. He has lived in Eastern Europe for most of the last 20 years, including Russia, Ukraine, Slovenia, and Georgia.”

    Townhall decides to do a piece on a Civil War and picks someone who doesn’t live in the country. And it sticks out like a sore thumb. The conservativeInc crowd is so stupid they have to wipe their a– by the numbers.

    Is that Nuckols as in Nuckols dragging the ground.

  8. On July 22, 2020 at 8:39 am, Frank Clarke said:

    “ It will be Sarajevo on steroids. It will make Bosnia look like a Sunday School picnic.” Afghanistan with wheatfields.

    A dozen years ago I wrote (and self-published) a book on the coming civil war (http://frankclarke.dx.am/TipPtPage.html) and I deliberately made it ghastly and gory because — as much as we might wish otherwise — that’s how it’s going to be. Mike Vanderboegh recoiled in horror from what I posited, but he never said it couldn’t happen.

    As to my fate, I’m 76 with arthritis and heart problems and “in no shape to exercise”. I will not last past the first engagement, but I won’t go alone.

  9. On July 22, 2020 at 9:10 am, Fred said:

    First a correction then a few comments. The correction: but which President Trump [pretends to] threaten.

    North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, joining in is absurd on it’s face for reasons I will not disclose, for I intend to keep all of my covenants until the shooting starts, the government of the US having broken every word of every agreement I’ve made with it, the Lord being with a just man in his rightful defense, my cause will be righteous.

    More agreements of non-interference will be made with foreign powers than any other. Some think that Russia might be a friend to the former or “right wing” government in the US or it’s people. Don’t count on that either.

    I don’t expect foreign assistance in the form of personnel but massive amounts of equipment, particularly small arms and ammo. And of course all global “news” will blame the whole thing on right wing fascists who hate jews or something retarded like that.

    If I lived in Alaska I would welcome my new government in Moscow. Alaskans will be better off than any in the lower 48 without a single doubt in my mind should this come to pass as laid out in the article.

  10. On July 22, 2020 at 10:36 am, Haz said:

    @Frank Clarke,

    I’ll look into your book. Thx for the link.

  11. On July 22, 2020 at 10:43 am, Sisu said:

    So how will individuals and “local” groupings know “friend from foe” ? … Seems to me that will be the biggest challenged; followed by “protection rackets” masquerading as “militia” wanting to restore order. … Somalia and “warlords”.

    I’d appreciate alternate perspectives.

  12. On July 22, 2020 at 10:44 am, Randy said:

    Honest Question:  Why would you call “it” a coming civil war, when “it” is pissing in your face today, and it’s obviously a communist insurgency?  

  13. On July 22, 2020 at 11:02 am, Herschel Smith said:


    Because half of the country is communist and wants those policies.

  14. On July 22, 2020 at 12:00 pm, Sisu said:

    @Herschel, I suspect @Randy meant we are already in the throes of a “civil war” – communication has all but totally broken down, democrats are allowing domestic terrorists to destroy public and private property and commit violence against citizens, police and legitimate authority, there is pervasive voter fraud perpetrated by democrats and now they are speaking of physically removing the President from office come January, … Your response seems to both agree and disagree(?.

  15. On July 22, 2020 at 12:15 pm, Herschel Smith said:


    Oh I agree. But I think it will get much, much worse. These are just skirmishes.

  16. On July 22, 2020 at 12:33 pm, Ned2 said:

    “So how will individuals and “local” groupings know “friend from foe” ?”

    Easy, just keep track of all the morons still wearing a mask.

  17. On July 22, 2020 at 12:46 pm, Ned2 said:

    I see a major balkanization of the country.
    Whoever is more prevalent in your community/town/county/city will assume power and purge their enemies.
    So it is vitally important you now live among your tribe with like minded people with similar values.
    Study your community, and work your way outwards in 50 mile increments. If you live within a hundred miles of a woke town or city, move. You won’t survive.

    The east and west coasts are history, as are most cities with a population over 100,000.

  18. On July 22, 2020 at 1:02 pm, Ned2 said:

    I disagree somewhat with the idea there will be no foreign actors coming here to enjoy the festivities.
    Thousands of fighters from all over the world flocked to Yugoslavia into the Serb, Bosnian and Croat armies.
    Similarly, we’ve seen many from the west travel to the middle east to fight their wars. This could easily turn into a religious war with Christians purging the Islamists and any other anti Christian group.
    I don’t see entire nations committing themselves to one side or another unless there’s a ton of money to be made.

  19. On July 22, 2020 at 1:51 pm, Bad_Brad said:

    It’s not going to last long enough for foreign troops to get here. It will be regional in small pockets. But very deadly. ANTIFABLM will be hunted within a few days after it goes hot.

  20. On July 22, 2020 at 2:26 pm, Antonio Salieri said:

    The CW2 will resemble The Spanish Civil War I see it now Churches burned statues and religious symbols destroyed, Antifa, communists, socialist, democrats all joining to tear down the country

  21. On July 22, 2020 at 4:06 pm, J J said:

    @Frank Clarke – just started reading Tipping Point again. Sadly, I don’t know that we could count on 13 governors, much less 13 state legislatures to take action.
    During Plandemic, the only governor I have seen with any balls is in South Dakota.

  22. On July 22, 2020 at 4:41 pm, AZM said:

    Yea I don’t see local government making a coalition to reject Mordor.

    S Dakota has a good leader and surprised she isn’t getting more support. Opposition has to be planning on how to isolate her from the populace.

  23. On July 23, 2020 at 12:28 pm, Steve said:

    “This war will not be fought like the American Revolution or the Civil War of 1861-65, where disciplined armies observed the laws of war and respected civilian lives.” He is flat out wrong here. Sherman’s army had no respect for civilian lives and little respect for the laws of war. Shotwell Publishing has extensive documentation on this.

  24. On July 23, 2020 at 1:42 pm, Bones said:

    History doesn’t repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme.

    I agree with Antonio S.

    I’m thinking it’ll be like the Spanish Civil War. “Progressives” killing the “Conservatives” in their midst and vice-versa. Once the Anarchists, Syndicalists, Socialists and various Communists took power, churches, convents, and monasteries started to burn and nuns, priests and monks were killed by the Left.

    Then the traditionalist, very Catholic, Army stepped in.

    Twenty years ago, I would have thought of the US military as traditionalist and conservative, but not any more. Too many go-along, get-along officers and Senior NCOs at the top, caring about their careers and nothing else. They will blow with the wind.

    That leaves us.

  25. On July 23, 2020 at 7:51 pm, penses said:

    @Bones 1775. A bunch of deplorables with nothing to loose defeated the strongest military power in the world.

    Never overestimate professional military intelligence. This was the key to the success of the best general the South produced, Nathan Bedford Forrest. A man Sherman hated. “That devil, Forrest.”

    ““In war, the moral is to the physical as three is to one.”— Napoleon

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This article is filed under the category(s) Politics and was published July 21st, 2020 by Herschel Smith.

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