Crisis averted, or more of the same in Iraq?

BY Herschel Smith
4 years, 9 months ago

Glenn Reynolds links Paul Mirengoff at Powerline, who infers that a crisis has been averted in Iraq.

I wrote  here about the disturbing prospect that the disqualification of hundreds of Sunni candidates in the unpcoming Iraqi elections would degrade those elections and perhaps prompt a surge of sectarian violence. But now, as  Max Boot reports based on statements by  General Petraeus, it appears that, not for the first time, Iraqi politicians have averted the crisis through a compromise. According to Petraeus, the disqualfication list is no longer weighted against the Sunnis. (There are no doubt many Iraqi figures who richly deserve to be disqualified).

But the Fadhil brothers who write for Iraq the Model are as good of Iraq political analysts as can be found anywhere.  Mohammed writes:

Feeling the need to provide an explanation, Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki asserted that the decision to ban 500 candidates from general elections is not targeting Sunni Arabs. He said that Sunni Arabs are more than necessary as partners in the political process and that their participation in the March elections is even more important than it was in 2005.

Maliki told al-Iraqia TV on Tuesday night that although the list of banned candidates includes many Sunni names, it also includes Shiites, perhaps in greater numbers, according to Maliki. He also pointed out that 70% of the Ba’ath Party members were Shiite.

Maliki might be right in saying that more Shiites were banned than Sunnis. However, it is obvious now that, unlike with Sunni candidates, none of the banned Shiite candidates is a prominent political figure. In fact, the media so far has not mentioned the names of any of those disqualified Shiite candidates. I suspect that even of the names are made public no one would recognize them nor would I expect their disqualification affect their blocs in any significant manner.

The other important and suspicious point about the ban is that the banned politicians have been part of the political process for several years. This and the timing raise suspicion about the intentions of the Maliki government and the “justice and accountability commission.” While major existing partners in the political process are banned over alleged ties to the Ba’ath Party, the government is at the same time making deals with hostage killers like the group known as Asaib Ahl Al-Haq and is trying to persuade them to join the political process.

In light of these facts and suspicions, the ban is perceived by some in Iraq as a systematic targeting of the Sunni political class. Others think the target is nationalist non-sectarian blocs. I agree more with the latter in that the targets are actually blocs that identify themselves as nationalist/anti-sectarian.

This is yet another example of the limits of the power of nation-building and alignment with corrupt politicians who have their own power as their first priority.  My opposition to Maliki is well known, and although Iraq is not falling apart, it is still suffering from the same sectarian struggles with which it began.

Support of sectarian leaders in positions of national power is a path fraught with many problems.  This is a lesson that should not be learned again the hard way in Afghanistan in our haste to build a nation-state suitable for our departure.


You are currently reading "Crisis averted, or more of the same in Iraq?", entry #4476 on The Captain's Journal.

This article is filed under the category(s) Iraq and was published January 31st, 2010 by Herschel Smith.

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