It looks as if Israel has come to the conclusion that they cannot effect the change in Hezbollah and their presence in southern Lebanon without a ground campaign.

Israel massed tanks and troops on the border Friday and warned civilians to flee Hezbollah-controlled southern Lebanon as it prepared for a likely ground invasion to set up a deep buffer zone.

But as Jeff Jacoby points out, Iran is still the real enemy, and the war will not be won until this enemy is defeated.  The prime mover in all of this is still Iran:

We will never win this war, Ledeen and others argue, until the Iranian theocracy is brought down. That does not have to mean military action. Our aim instead should be to empower Iran’s restive population, which is largely pro-Western and moderate. Give them as much support as possible, much as the Reagan administration did for Lech Walesa and Solidarity in Poland – and let them find the means to reclaim their government for themselves.

Israel may be able to inflict a punishing defeat on Hizbullah, but regime change in Tehran will require American resolve. Will we muster that resolve before – or only after – the mullahs get the bomb?

I think Jacoby is correct on Iran being at the center of the storm, but dead wrong on his plan for Iran.  I do not see the population as being capable of overthrowing the regime in Iran.  Remember?  All of this talk about empowering the restive population to overthrow the regime was going on with our plans for Iraq, too (back in the Gulf War).  But as I have pointed out in my post “The Iran War Plans,” an all-out ground invasion of Iran would be costly (and is highly ill-advised).  I have a different idea — another plan for the battle for Iran.  I will post soon on my plans for war with Iran.  In the mean time, the war in southern Lebanon with Hezbollah is a war by proxy.  Israel is fighting Iranian troops by fighting Hezbollah.  War with Iran is inevitable, so we may as well begin forging a viable set of plans for it now rather than later.  Time is running out.

Haaretz.com is reporting:

Hezbollah bunkers are well-hidden and discernible only from a close distance, said Gantz. “The operation is challenging, difficult and complex. Unfortunately, there is the price of casualties, but the other side, unlike us, doesn’t report their casualties,” he added.

Thousands of Israeli troops are operating in south Lebanon where they are targetting Hezbollah positions. Among their activities, they are searching for tunnels dug by Hezbollah militants. According to the army, Hezbollah fighters have taken refuge inside these tunnels – often dug under homes in villages – along with their rockets, and that they occasionally emerge to fire one into Israel.

From the AP:

BAGHDAD, Iraq – Bombings and shootings soared by 40 percent in the Baghdad area in the past week, the U.S. military said Thursday. An American general said extremists were preparing “an all-out assault

Here is a sobering commentary from Haaretz.com.  After discussing the well-intentioned air campaign, the commentary says that an exclusive air campaign will fail to end Hezbollah, and ends thusly:

Israeli leaders who have not considered this will discover in the coming days the disadvantages and limitations of the aerial offensive. Then they will be faced with a tough dilemma: Should they finish off the aerial operation with a diplomatic process, which is liable to rehabilitate Hezbollah, or should they finish it off with a ground operation that could involve heavy losses and entanglement in Lebanon?

One way or the other, the illusion of a magic solution is about to burst. The Israel Air Force is trying – but not succeeding – to do all the work on our behalf.

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The Counterterrorism Blog has a good rundown of Hezbollah activities on U.S. soil (Hizballah Activity in North America).  You will notice after studying the incidents cited in their blog that while some of the activities seem to be rather spurious regarding location (L.A., Charlotte), others are not and seem to point to a center for Hezbollah fundraising and militancy.  The case in point is Dearborn, Michigan.

Courtesy of Jihad Watch, an interesting piece on Imam Elahi comes to us from CBN.com.  In part it says:

Debbie Schlussel, a Detroit-based columnist and attorney, was the first to call attention to Elahi’s ties to Iranian government officials.

“Mr. Elahi, I believe, is an agent of the government in Iran. Not only does he have sympathies for them, but he did work for them. And I believe he’s still working for them,

I consider this to be the equivalent of human shields:

The IDF has found that Hizbullah is preventing civilians from leaving villages in southern Lebanon. Roadblocks have been set up outside some of the villages to prevent residents from leaving, while in other villages Hizbullah is preventing UN representatives from entering, who are trying to help residents leave. In two villages, exchanges of fire between residents and Hizbullah have broken out. (Hanan Greenberg)

There isn’t a Nickel’s worth of difference between pulling a child in front of you to block a bullet and what Hezbollah is doing right now in Lebanon.  It is all the same.  They are cowardly, villainous scoundrels and they deserve to die.

I consider this to be the equivalent of human shields:

The IDF has found that Hizbullah is preventing civilians from leaving villages in southern Lebanon. Roadblocks have been set up outside some of the villages to prevent residents from leaving, while in other villages Hizbullah is preventing UN representatives from entering, who are trying to help residents leave. In two villages, exchanges of fire between residents and Hizbullah have broken out. (Hanan Greenberg)

There isn’t a Nickel’s worth of difference between pulling a child in front of you to block a bullet and what Hezbollah is doing right now in Lebanon.  It is all the same.  They are cowardly, villainous scoundrels and they deserve to die.

On July 16 I posted “Are we Prepared for Hezbollah Attacks in the U.S.?”

I followed up with “Hezbollah Reiterates Threat to Attack U.S. Interests Around Globe.”

The Counterterrorism Blog has a good entry by Walid Phares entitled “To Repeat: Are we Ready for Hizbollah Attacks in the U.S.”

Blogs of War has a piece entitled Hezbollah in America.

Michelle Malkin has more on this developing story with pictures of militant rumblings in San Francisco.

It looks like Israel is trying to destroy Hezbollah’s capabilities with a sanitized air campaign (it will fail).  It also looks like the U.S. is blinking and giving Israel another week.  If this happens, Hezbollah will come out on the other end of this whole thing politically stronger, and we will face down Hezbollah not just in the middle east, but on our own home soil.  We will not close down our borders because the Senate lacks the will, and we will have no defense against Hezbollah cells in the U.S. before the real battle begins.  The attacks on 9/11 by Al Qaida were just a prelude to the coming battle with radical Islam.  Al Qaida was the bench team.  Hezbollah is the first string.

You think the U.S. will wake from our slumber before the war begins?

Editorial Remark: Edited to correct typographical error in title line from “Treat” to “Threat.”  Hmmm … Hezbollah … trick or treat indeed.

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We blogged a few days ago (Are we Prepared for Hezbollah Attacks in the U.S.?) on Hezbollah cells in the U.S. awaiting orders to attack people and infrastructure.  Today Reuters reports:

TEHRAN (Reuters) – Iran’s Hizbollah, which claims links to the Lebanese group of the same name, said on Tuesday it stood ready to attack Israeli and U.S. interests worldwide.

“We have 2,000 volunteers who have registered since last year,” said Iranian Hizbollah’s spokesman Mojtaba Bigdeli, speaking by telephone from the central seminary city of Qom.

“They have been trained and they can become fully armed. We are ready to dispatch them to every corner of the world to jeopardise Israel and America’s interests. We are only waiting for the Supreme Leader’s green light to take action. If America wants to ignite World War Three … we welcome it,” he said.

Will we allow these thugs to dictate our national security and foreign policy?

**** UPDATE ****

The U.S. has given Israel one more week to inflict maximum damage to Hezbollah.  This is too bizarre to be true!  I feel like I am in an episode of the Twilight Zone.  In other news, the FBI is concerned about Hezbollah members on U.S. soil and what they will do if the violence escalate.  Of course, we blogged on this several days ago.

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The Jerusalem Post is reporting that:

Forty to fifty percent of Hizbullah’s military capability has been destroyed in the six days of the IDF counter-attack following last Wednesday’s Hizbullah raid in northern Israel, The Jerusalem Post has learned.

The IDF, it is understood, believes it needs another week or so minimum to achieve its military goals in terms of alleviating Hizbullah’s capacity to threaten Israel. 

My question: how would they know this without boots on the ground?  Here is the problem.  As long as Hezbollah has men with AK-47s who can run around screaming Allahu Akbar after this is all over, they will claim victory.  This absolutely has to be a grand slam by Israel.  There is no in between, and I fear that Israel holds the fate of the war on terror in their hands.  Radical, militant Islam is emboldened, or it is defeated, and this battle will prove decisive.

Will Israel send boots in, or will they try to do this with sanitized air power and stand-off weapons like artillery?  How will they know about those thousands of rockets inside of homes, buried in the hillsides …

Still watching.

**** UPDATE #1 ****

Iran says through the AP:

TEHRAN, Iran – No part of Israel is safe in the current fighting with Lebanon, Iran’s parliamentary speaker warned Tuesday, referring to the range of guerrilla rockets.

Speaking to a crowd of thousands of anti-Israel demonstrators in Palestine Square, Tehran, Speaker Gholam Ali Haddad Adel told Israelis: “The towns you have built in northern Palestine (Israel) are within the range of the brave Lebanese children. No part of Israel will be safe.”

While the speaker is not among the most influential office-bearers in Iran, Haddad Adel’s comments call into question the Tehran government’s official position that it is not involved in the conflict between Israel and Lebanon. 

There is nothing called into question because there is no question.  Iran is behind it all.

Still watching …

**** UPDATE #2 ****

Bill Roggio over at the Counterterrorism Blog has a roundup of information related to a potential new “buffer zone” right at the border.  It appears that the calculus is not an overwhelming destruction of Hezbollah:

Israel is currently signaling it is interested in establishing a buffer zone on the Israeli border, and not planning a major ground invasion of Lebanon and a large scale advance into the Bekaa Valley. “One of the aims of the [military] operation is to establish a security area in Lebanon, without the presence of IDF soldiers,” Defense Minister Amir Peretz said. “Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz declared that the IDF currently had much better alternatives than to launch a major ground incursion into Lebanon,” reports the Jerusalem Post.

The post ends by saying:

The continual launch of longer range rockets into Israel may change the calculus. Today, the Israeli Air Force destroyed “at least one long-range Iranian missile capable of hitting Tel Aviv.”

I rather hope that Israel revisits the calculus of the current battle.  I am not entirely sure what one long range missile has to do with anything?

***** UPDATE #3 *****

The Washington Times has a good piece on Israeli air capabilities:

Israel is in the best position militarily in its history to mount air strikes against Iran, after a decade of buying U.S.-produced long-range aircraft, penetrating bombs and aerial refueling tankers.
    Tel Aviv has ratcheted up the volume in attacking the hard-line Islamic regime as it fights the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. In the past, Israeli politicians have talked openly of attacking Iranian nuclear sites to prevent the U.S.-designated terror state from building atomic warheads.
    Israel has purchased 25 $84 million F-15I (I for Israel) Ra’am, a special version of the U.S. F-15E long-range interdiction bomber. It also is buying 102 of another long-range tactical jet, the $45 million F-16I Sufa. About 60 have been delivered.
    The Jewish state also is buying 500 U.S. BLU-109 “bunker buster” bombs that could penetrate the concrete protection around some of Iran’s underground facilities, such as the uranium enrichment site at Natanz. The final piece of the enterprise is a fleet of B-707 air-to-air refuelers that could nurse strike aircraft as they made the 900-mile-plus trip inside Iran, dropped their bombs and returned to Israel.
    “They have the capability to strike Iran,” said retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Thomas G. McInerney, a former fighter pilot who has trained with Israelis. “It would be limited, though. They could do 30 to 40 ‘aim points’ in the array. I’m not worried about them hitting the targets. They will suffer losses, but they are capable of doing it.” 

The piece goes on to discuss the fact that Israel has pressured the U.S. on Iran and potential nuclear weapons.

Still watching … and wondering if and when Iran will be dealt with and by whom?

**** UPDATE #4 ****

A view from Israel.  Saul Singer writes a piece carried over at NRO today.  A tantalizing paragraph follows:

Not a single mayor, or even a man-on-the-street can be found, even in the bomb shelters of our bombarded cities, who wants this war to stop a moment before the IDF has finished the job, and the threat from the north is permanently erased.