Archive for the 'War & Warfare' Category

This post has been updated with Ramadi is Still a Troubled City.

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Those of you who are consistent readers at my site (believe it or not, there are actually a few of you) know that when I think I see a spade, I call it a spade. Right or wrong, I call it like I see it.

I am a patriot.  This post is not about the war in terms of its rightness or wrongness.  It is about how we are conducting part of the war and the potentially terrible cost to U.S. lives that might result from our current strategy.  It is time to weigh in on Ramadi.  I think it is a mess, and I think that its a mess because of the tactical approach taken by the brass.  This will not make me popular with the brass, but they don’t read my blog anyway, so I have lost nothing and I’ve kept my honesty.

Early on I tried to give them the benefit of the doubt, but pointed out that this tactic of surgically striking at the insurgents in Ramadi (while also leaving the civilians in the city) was prone to disaster and carried the risk of utter failure.  Now, I feel that it is not only prone to disaster, but will also cost U.S. lives in the future.

I questioned in a earlier post on Ramadi “what kind of strategy digs a hole and puts U.S. troops in it waiting to be attacked,” or something like that (and in fact, the U.S. troops were taking bets as to when they would be attacked).  Now, this from Ramadi:

Ramadi, Iraq – Peering over piles of sandbags in this ravaged city, US Marines sometimes see more gunmen on the streets than municipal employees going to work.  The provincial governor regularly arrives at his office with armed gaurds in tow.

After three years of war in Ramadi, the US military has yet to move from combat to stabilization operations in most of this Sunni Arab city of 400,000 people, the capital of Anbar province.

Here full-fledged combat still rages. Efforts to build a local government have faltered.

In just four months, one Marine has fired 27 rockets. Another estimates he has fired 5,000 rounds from a .50-caliber machine gun. One marksman has 20 confirmed kills. His superiors believe he has probably killed another 40 but they are not sure.

The US military said Sunday that four US Marines assigned to the Regimental Combat Team 7 were killed in action in Anbar province, although it did not say where.

Residents of Ramadi are afraid of even walking near the offices of the Anbar provincial government, which is supposed to administer an area the size of Greece, and with about 1 million inhabitants.

“There’s been a concerted campaign against government officials that’s had some great success … the government center is nearly devoid of governance,

John Little (who I consider to be the best in the business) of the famous Blogs of War has started a new web log called Chronicles of War (clever site name, in association with the Houston Chronicles).  His post at Blogs of War explains the idea:

I finally got my face in the hometown paper. Well, its web site at least. I didn’t even have to embezzle city funds, lead cops on a three hour chase, or plow my SUV into METRO’s light rail. My family should be proud.

Thanks to an invitation from blog/media/tech guru Dwight Silverman, I’ll also be blogging the war at the Houston Chronicle. Chronicles of War will cover the same topics you see here at Blogs of War but with a little more depth.

I’m excited about the prospect of getting these topics, and my take on them, in front of a new audience. I’ll keep you guys (and gals) in the loop on developments at Chronicles of War but I hope that you’ll check it out, link it, and participate in the discussion.

Here at the Captain’s Journal I try to focus a little more on analysis as well, as much as can be done by a “working stiff.”  I am sure that John will do well at this.  The only question is this: When will John sleep?

This does not bode well for an upstart like me.  If you don’t put quality stuff out on a site, no one reads it.  If you do, you get no sleep.  Either you go un-read or you’re an insomniac.  I don’t think I like my options.

The IDF apparently requested an increased presence and intensity in the conflict in southern Lebanon.  From Arutz Sheva:

The cabinet approved the request, permitting IDF troops to operate as far north as the Litani River in a move intended to push Hizbullah back to the other side of the Litani, thereby distancing the threat to Israel’s northern border. While most of the cabinet ministers voted in favor, Science Minister (Labor) Ophir Pines abstained. There were no votes of opposition.

The ministers were briefed by military and intelligence officials, as well as by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who detailed the picture on the international diplomatic scene.

In his nationally televised address on Monday night, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told a forum of mayors that there would be no ceasefire in the “coming days,

From the Strategy Page:

July 30, 2006: One major reason for the increased Taliban this year was the wholesale replacement of a lot of Taliban field commanders last Fall. With new money coming in last year (from drug gangs and rich fans of Islamic radicalism), there were also calls for some more energetic leadership in the field. At that point, the pre-2001 Taliban leadership was still calling most of the shots, and they had not done very well over the last four years. So it was agreed, that the time had come to let the younger guys, with new ideas and new energy, to take over.The new crew certainly shook things up. More than three times as many Taliban were killed in action this year, and even more were captured, compared to last year. But the new Taliban activity has had an impact. Over 200,000 children have been shut out of school. The Taliban does not approve of non-religious schools, or schools that teach girls. Dozens of government officials (including school teachers) have been murdered, and many more threatened. Relief supplies, for drought victims, were blocked (because they were provided by infidels). Same deal with many reconstruction projects.But the energetic new leaders have failed in one important area; popularity. Afghans don’t like being terrorized, or their kids driven from school, or relief supplies held up. It’s going to be a long, cold Winter.

At the risk of sounding skeptical, it might not be that there is a resurgence of the Taliban.  Rather, it might be that there is more action than in previous months because of this new leadership.  But getting people captured and killed is not the mark of good leadership.  From Afghan News:

U.S.-led coalition forces and Afghan police killed 20 suspected Taliban in the latest fighting to hit southern Afghanistan, as NATO on Sunday prepared to take command in the insurgency-wracked region.

Afghan forces also killed six militants in southeastern Paktika province, an Afghan official said.

On Monday, the U.S. anti-terror coalition is to formally hand over control of security operations to a NATO-led force that has deployed about 8,000 mostly British, Canadian and Dutch troops in the south.

The deployment has coincided with the deadliest upsurge in fighting since U.S.-backed forces ousted the Taliban regime in late 2001 for hosting Osama bin Laden, mastermind of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

On a visit to Afghanistan on Sunday, French Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie said many Taliban fighters were crossing from Pakistan to stage attacks.

“We need real cooperation from Pakistan, but it seems very difficult for them. The border is a very difficult region and we ask Pakistan to make some more effort to control it,” she told reporters in Kabul.

Pakistan, a key U.S. ally in its war on terrorism, says it does all it can to patrol the porous Afghan border.

On Saturday, a joint force of coalition and Afghan troops killed 20 suspected Taliban militants who had attempted an ambush in Shahidi Hassas district of Uruzgan province, a coalition statement said. There were no casualties among coalition or Afghan forces.

Afghan soldiers and police killed six Taliban fighters and captured eight Sunday during a clash in southeastern Paktika province’s Waza Khwa district, said Said Jamal, spokesman for the provincial governor. No further details were available.

In Kandahar province, three militants blew themselves up Saturday as they laid an explosive on a road, said Daoud Ahmadi, a spokesman for the provincial governor. Another suspected Taliban died Sunday when a land mine he was planting north of Kandahar city exploded, Ahmadi said.

Taliban-led fighters have escalated roadside bombings and suicide attacks this year, and have also mounted brazen attacks on several small towns and district police stations — a tactic rarely seen in the previous four years.

International forces, backed by the Afghan army, have meted out a tough response.

Afghan Defense Ministry spokesman Gen. Zahir Azimi said a 50-day operation dubbed Mountain Thrust has resulted in the deaths of at least 613 suspected militants. Some 87 others were wounded and about 300 arrested, he said.

Azimi said between 13 and 16 civilians had also died.

From CSM:

TAIPEI, TAIWAN – As Asia grapples with the fallout from North Korea’s projectile posturing, another military flashpoint in the region – the Taiwan Strait – is in the midst of missile tensions as well.

A private TV station reported earlier this month that Taiwan’s military was preparing to test-fire a tactical missile in September capable of striking targets in China. While the details were sketchy and the claim was swiftly denied by the Ministry of National Defense, they struck a chord with analysts who have heeded the frustration among hawks in Taiwan over the island’s vulnerability in the face of China’s military might, including its expanding missile arsenal.

May I go on record as saying that this is a highly, extremely, very bad idea … until, that is, Taiwan can give proof of its already having gone nuclear.  If Taiwan goes nuclear, they have protection against Chinese bully tactics.  If they don’t, this missile will be seen as nothing more than an instigation to conflict — a conflict that Taiwan will lose.

From AP:

BAGHDAD, Iraq — A U.S. plane launched an airstrike today against a building used by al-Qaida in Iraq, killing two militants, the U.S. military said. A car bomb exploded near the U.S. consulate in Kirkuk, killing two Iraqis and wounding seven others, Iraqi police said.

Four suspects were detained after the air attack, which took place southwest of Baghdad against extremists who had been staging mortar attacks on civilians, a U.S. statement said.

U.S. troops tracked the militants to a building and “coalition aircraft successfully executed the strike,” the statement said.

These are the same people who are believed to have launched a mortar attack recently that killed more than 30 people.

This is literally breathtaking when I see the report, and my son is not yet deployed:

BAGHDAD, Iraq – Four U.S. Marines were killed in combat in western Iraq’s Anbar province, the U.S. military said Sunday.

The Marines, who were assigned to the Regimental Combat Team 7, died on Saturday. Their identities were not released. They died in the western province that is a focal point of the Sunni-dominated insurgency.

Will I make it through my son’s deployment?  Pray for their families tonight.

It now looks as if Hezbollah has used civilian buildings to fire rockets, causing the targeting of Qana by the IAF:

Some 150 rockets were fired from the Lebanese village of Qana over the past 20 days, Air Force Chief of Staff Brig.-Gen. Amir Eshel said on Sunday evening.

Speaking to reporters, Eshel added that Hizbullah rocket launchers were hidden in civilian buildings in the village. He proceeded to show video footage of rocket launchers being driven into the village following launches.

Eshel also pointed out that the building was hit sometime around midnight Saturday night and didn’t collapse until about 8 a.m. Sunday morning, leaving an unusual gap in the timing of the events which the IDF was investigating. 

More on this, hat tip to Macsmind:

THIS is the picture that damns Hezbollah. It is one of several, smuggled from behind Lebanon’s battle lines, showing that Hezbollah is waging war amid suburbia.

The images, obtained exclusively by the Sunday Herald Sun, show Hezbollah using high-density residential areas as launch pads for rockets and heavy-calibre weapons.

Dressed in civilian clothing so they can quickly disappear, the militants carrying automatic assault rifles and ride in on trucks mounted with cannon.

The photographs, from the Christian area of Wadi Chahrour in the east of Beirut, were taken by a visiting journalist and smuggled out by a friend. 

I have talked before about the moral asymmetry that marks this current conflict in Hezbollah Uses Religion and Humans to Hide from IDF.  In addition to moral asymmetry there is a tactical asymmetry that marks this conflict.  Defense Tech has an interesting article that says in part:

In every area — from firing rockets to defending prepared positions… — we have examples of Hezbollah teams deciding, adapting, innovating, and collaborating without reference to any central authority. The result of this decentralization is that Hezbollah’s aggregate decision cycles are faster and qualitatively better than those of their Israeli counterparts… the continued success of its efforts has put the Israelis on the horns of a dilemma: either request a ceasefire or push for a full invasion of southern Lebanon (each fraught with disastrous consequences).

Defense Tech also links to another commentary by Eric Umansky, where he says in part:

Contrary to much of the chatter about how the dynamic developing (sic) –of Hezbollah essentially fighting Israel to a statement (and thus effectively winning)–that really shouldn’t be a surprise. Fighting a counter-guerilla campaign has never worked well from the air, nor have efforts to bomb people into submission. 

But that’s all (recent) history. The question is what should Israel do now. And honestly, I’m just not sure.

Well, I am sure of several things.  First of all, I would slightly modify Defense Tech’s assessment by saying that while a full scale invation has potential disastrous consequences, requesting a ceasefire brings certain disastrous consequences.  Second, this trouble could have been partially mitigated, if not completely abated, with the deployment of directed energy weapons (Tactical High Energy Laser).

Katyusha multiple rocket launchers were first fielded by the Soviets during World War II. They fire a primitive, short-range unguided rocket that is not very accurate. They have only limited military utility but are perfect for terror. Hezbollah has a vast stockpile of Katyushas.

 

This threat is not new, and the United States and Israel have been working on countermeasures for over a decade. In 1996, the U.S. Army and the Israeli Ministry of Defense began joint development of a system, the Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL), to defend against the types of rockets Hezbollah is using against Israel today. The Army terminated development of the system in 2006 because of technical complexities and lack of mobility. It wasn’t really ready for the battlefield. There is a “relocatable