Tyranny And Math
BY Herschel SmithAR-15 and AR-10 variants are truly generic and have been sold under more than 120 brand names. The number of ARs (AR-15s, M4s, AR-10s, and variants) sold from 2000 to 2014 was approximately 5,672,900. Since then, AR-15 clones have become even more popular and ubiquitous with approximately 1.2 million more produced in 2015, 1.6 million in 2016, and 1.5 million in 2017. At least 1.2 million will be produced in 2018. It can be assumed that 99% of the ARs produced since the year 2000 are still functional. There were more than 2.3 million other ARs produced for the civilian market between 1962 and 1999. It is safe to assume that at least 95% of those of that vintage are still functional. So the total number of functional ARs in private hands in the U.S. is somewhere around 11 to 12 million. (As of May, 2018.)
Rawles goes on to discuss semi-automatics, pistols, and possible outcomes in the event of a broad, wholesale confiscation effort.
I too think it would be catastrophic for FedGov to engage in such a stupid move. Many people would perish in such a project. That’s why I don’t think it will happen. It won’t go down that way.
What will happen is a nickel-and-dime approach, or if you wish, death by a thousand cuts. For example, if Congress (and the president signs) a ban on semi-automatic weapons, they won’t make it retroactive. But what they will do is ban further production of said weapons, and make it illegal to turn over those weapons in estates. Thus you have an effective gun ban in a generation.
They will force registration of said weapons, and while they won’t go door to door confiscating them if you don’t register them, they will make it illegal to shoot them at ranges without papers. They will force ID and background checks (and perhaps even registration) to purchase ammunition, and enact criminal penalties for allowing your weapons to be stolen (under the rubric of “gun safety laws”).
I could go on, but you get the picture. So what gun owners must be willing to do is stop the process by whatever means necessary when the community deems appropriate.
When does this point occur?
By the way, you should make the Survival Blog a daily stop.

