Analysis Of The Covid-19 Pandemic

Herschel Smith · 18 Mar 2020 · 37 Comments

UPDATE 3/29 A few links, a few comments about those links, and then a link dump. Current trajectory of Covid-19.  I'll update the curve fit as often as I'm able to. Coronavirus Could be Chimera of Two Different Viruses, Genome Analysis Suggests. In December 2019, 27 of the first 41 people hospitalised (66 percent) passed through a market located in the heart of Wuhan city in Hubei province. But, according to a study conducted at Wuhan Hospital, the very first human case identified…… [read more]

We’re Not Violating Constitutional Rights Because We’re Just Following Orders

BY Herschel Smith
2 days, 9 hours ago

Wisconsin County Officials Attempt To Censor Speech About Covid-19

BY Herschel Smith
2 days, 14 hours ago

Dean Weingarten.

The Rusk County Sheriff’s Office and Public Health Department take coronavirus infection (COVID-19) seriously. We are informing the public that making false statements and spreading rumors about COVID-19 is a crime and will be prosecuted.

No Wisconsin statute is cited. Wisconsin statutes have provisions for false statements or claims by a health care provider.  A search did not find a statute for false statements by a member of the public, not for spreading rumors.

The problem with prosecuting people for spreading rumors or making false statements is it is not clear who gets to decide what is false or not.

There are often diametrically opposed statements made by different media, which cannot both be true.

The First Amendment protects speech, very widely. There are exceptions for inciting riots, slander, defamation or inciting the violent overthrow of the government. There is a provision for disorderly conduct.

None of that seems to apply to the Rusk County threat about false statements and rumors.

The First and Second Amendments are tied tightly together. Openly carrying a firearm is a strong, symbolic, political speech. It is difficult to protect your right to freedom of speech and the press, if you have no right to bear arms, or are not allowed to protect the property necessary to spread your message.

Petty tyrants flow like feces out of the ground as if from a leaking sewer pipe when times get spicy.  Times are spicy, thus the Sheriff seeps from the leak.

If for no other reason, this pandemic is a good chance to see them in action, taking advantage of the situation to lord it over other men and women in violation of their God-given rights.

Nothing gives them the right to prohibit free speech, not God, not the constitution, not anyone or anything.  They may even find a tyrannical judge who backs them up.  That wouldn’t change the reality that they are entirely outside their authority to do something like this.

Sheriff Jeffery Wallace’s email address is

Oh, and by the way, if this Sheriff will clamp down on God-given rights to free speech, he’ll do it when the .gov demands gun confiscations too.  You know he will.  He’s already demonstrated fealty to the dark powers of tyranny.

U.S. Companies Are Finding Out They Don’t Own Their Own Factories In China

BY Herschel Smith
2 days, 18 hours ago

NY Post.

Leading US manufacturers of medical safety gear told the White House that China prohibited them from exporting their products from the country as the coronavirus pandemic mounted — even as Beijing was trying to “corner the world market” in personal protective equipment, The Post has learned.

Now, the Trump administration is weighing legal action against China over its alleged actions, a lawyer for President Trump said Sunday.

“In criminal law, compare this to the levels that we have for murder,” said Jenna Ellis, a senior legal adviser to Trump’s re-election campaign.

“People are dying. When you have intentional, cold-blooded, premeditated action like you have with China, this would be considered first-degree murder.”

Ellis said the options under consideration include filing a complaint with the European Court of Human Rights or working “through the United Nations.”

Executives from 3M and Honeywell told US officials that the Chinese government in January began blocking exports of N95 respirators, booties, gloves and other supplies produced by their factories in China, according to a senior White House official.

China paid the manufacturers their standard wholesale rates, but prohibited the vital items from being sold to anyone else, the official said.

Around the same time that China cracked down on PPE exports, official data posted online shows that it imported 2.46 billion pieces of “epidemic prevention and control materials” between Jan. 24 and Feb. 29, the White House official said.

The gear, valued at nearly $1.2 billion, included more than 2 billion masks and more than 25 million “protective clothing” items that came from countries in the European Union, as well as Australia, Brazil and Cambodia, the official said.

“Data from China’s own customs agency points to an attempt to corner the world market in PPE like gloves, goggles, and masks through massive increased purchases — even as China, the world’s largest PPE manufacturer, was restricting exports,” the official said.

But … but … but …free trade,” “capitalism,” the world is our backyard and giggles and smiles and lots of love and unicorns farting purple pixie dust rainbows over trade partners!

It’s almost as if American corporations sending jobs and capital to declared enemies for the purpose of maximizing quarterly profits for the benefit of boards of directors and analysts who want to play a better gambling game on Wall Street are just shameless whores after all.

Paul Cottrell On Covid-19 As An Engineered Virus

BY Herschel Smith
3 days, 7 hours ago

Via WRSA, this video is very interesting.  There are others that serve well as preliminary political and fact-checking background, but this video is the most well-informed analysis I’ve found.

I asked a few days ago whether Coronavirus originated in a Chinese lab, and said “That’s what I have believed from the beginning, it is what I believe today, and it’s what I will always believe unless someone presents clear and convincing evidence that persuades me to relinquish my belief.”

This informed video doesn’t dissuade me from my views.  It cements them.

His analysis is sweeping and he seems conversant on a whole host of topics, including the effect on the economy of having so much of our material and parts produced in China.  The effect on the logistics chain is enormous for a just-in-time chain when a blip happens.

He says we must bring it all home.  I agree.  If that doesn’t sound “capitalistic,” then so be it.  I’ve said before that I’m not a Ron Paul libertarian “The world is a Utopian trade platform and unicorns fart purple pixie dust rainbows over trade-friends to knit them together in love for each other” follower.  I don’t want to debate this point – it’s a value judgment, and it’s mine.  You can have your own, whatever that is.

And R.J. Rushdooy as well.  Libertarianism without a moral foundation is a recipe for disaster.  If “free trade” and “capitalism” means a borderless world where evil corporations outsource manufacturing to enemies in order to maximize quarterly earnings because idiot analysts want to play a better gambling game on Wall Street, then I’m not that.

Under the Lordship of Christ, nothing and no one is free to do anything they wish.  We are free to obey God’s commandments, which brings the ultimate liberty, and He has a lot to say about this sort of thing, including duties of company owners to their workers.  I cannot ensure that corporations are practicing righteousness, and don’t advocate holding CEOs at the barrel of a gun to force good behavior on them.

But as for the safety, security, health, protection and welfare of a country with borders, corporations who do business with enemies hell bent on destruction of our country should be seen and treated as allies of those enemies.  So should the politicians who enable that alliance.

Finally, as I mentioned before, I see the FDA as culpable in the deaths of Americans due to this virus, and I have previously mentioned that the CDC had one job, i.e., to prepare for epidemics and infectious disease.

They … had … one … job.  They failed.  They failed to model, they failed to stay abreast of the facts, they failed to ensure enough PPEs were available in the national stockpile.  Additionally, I stumbled upon this comment at another site.

Hospitals were given the green light by the government to get rid of private practice physicians. This occurred during the days leading up to the passage of Obamacare, when hospitals were initially promised they would have monopolies on patients vis a vis Accountable Care Organizations. Hospitals went on a buying spree, paying top dollar for physicians and their practices. Coupled with the expense and headaches of the Electronic Medical Record, and insurance companies and hospitals both developing so called networks, in which physicians were frozen out of contracts as independent practitioners.

Why? Because the government figured out that it is easier to control the 5200 or so hospital CEO’s, who would now be the boss of the formerly independent 750k or more physicians.

This corporate practice of medicine has led to pressure on doctors to adapt protocols and submit to busybody hospital administrators to toe the line, or else find another job. In the worst cases, hospitals start sham peer review proceedings, a weaponized version of quality review and oversight, which can tarnish a doctor for life based on scurrilous and false evidence.

Doctors should not work for hospitals. It is an inherent conflict of interest, unethical, and it is the corporate practice of medicine. The doctor no longer works for the patient, but the hospital CEO, who has a fiduciary duty. This story is a good example. Unfortunately, the AMA is all in on it, and has not represented practicing physicians and patients for years.

You can see that however you wish.  But I’ll remind you of the quote attributed to Mussolini: “Fascism should more properly be called corporatism, since it is the merger of state and corporate power.”  A market void of righteousness is as much slavery as the state authority without righteousness.  You’re merely exchanging one wicked ruler for another.

The FDA Death Toll And Use Of Off-Label Medications

BY Herschel Smith
3 days, 9 hours ago

Mises Institute.

The Food and Drug Administration helped turn the coronavirus from a deadly peril into a national catastrophe. Long after foreign nations had been ravaged and many cases had been detected in America, the FDA continued blocking private testing. The FDA continued forcing the nation’s most innovative firms to submit to its command-and-control approach notwithstanding the pandemic. South Korean is in a far better situation dealing with coronavirus, because its government did not preemptively cripple private testing.

One of the clearest lessons from the current pandemic is that nothing has changed at one of the nation’s most powerful regulatory agencies. The FDA is repeating the same mistakes and showing the same arrogance that I chronicled decades ago in articles for the Wall Street Journal, the American Spectator, and other publications.

Dr. David Kessler, who became FDA commissioner in 1990, quickly sought to intimidate the companies that his agency regulates. A laudatory Washington Post article concluded, “What he cannot accomplish with ordinary regulation, Kessler hopes to accomplish with fear.” Kenneth Feather of the FDA’s drug advertising surveillance branch boasted: “We want to say to these companies that you don’t know when or how we’ll strike. We want to eliminate predictability.”

Dr. Kessler’s heavy-handed tactics battered the American medical device industry—one of the nation’s export superstars. An American Electronics Association survey found that “40% [of medical device companies] reduced the number of U.S. employees because of FDA delays, 29% increased their investment in foreign operations, and 22% moved U.S. jobs overseas.” The survey also found that “57% of the firms said the FDA had applied guidance instructions retroactively to some of their submissions,” as Biomedical Market Newsletter reported.

The FDA’s stonewalling of new medical devices was sometimes politically motivated. A 1994 report by the Medical Device Manufacturers Association noted, “It is not unusual for [FDA] reviewers to express the position that excessive requests [for additional information] are made because of a concern or fear about how a particular member or members of Congress will react” to the approval of a new device. Sacrificing lives was a small price to pay for bureaucrats to avoid bothersome interrogatories from Capitol Hill.

[ … ]

Dr. Kessler did not spare the First Amendment in his grab for power, and cancer patients and other seriously ill people suffered as a result. Doctors, hospitals, and researchers often discover after FDA approval that a drug to treat one disease is also effective at treating other diseases. Drug companies have routinely publicized this news, alerting physicians to other possible ways to save lives. American Medical Association vice president Roy Schwarz estimated that “off-label” uses of drugs account for up to 60 percent of all drugs prescribed.

But in 1991 Dr. Kessler prohibited pharmaceutical companies from informing doctors of new uses for approved drugs. He announced that the FDA would enforce the ban with seizures, injunctions, and prosecutions. Though the agency never finalized its proposed regulations, it warned companies that they would face its wrath if they violated the draft proposals. Dr. Kessler, in a speech before the Drug Information Association, said: “I would urge all members of the pharmaceutical industry to take a long and hard look at their promotional practices. I do not expect companies to wait until this guidance becomes final to put their advertising and promotional houses in order.” The question of off-label treatments is becoming a key issue again as doctors search for effective treatments for the COVID-19 coronavirus.

And thus because of a bureaucrat-laden impediment to medical science, the response to Covid-19 has been slow, cumbersome, lumbering, and deadly.

An example of this might be found in a recent article on another treatment for the virus.  Before we get to that, I recalled a few days ago before seeing this next article that a doctor friend of mine who volunteered in Haiti, found that he had nothing to treat the children who had scabies.  He had to let them suffer because he was sent without medications for that.  If he had been sent with it, he could have used Ivermectin to treat Scabies in humans.

I also recalled that I had treated my dog, Heidi, with Ivermectin once for a parasite, and was warned by the Vet that it was “off-label.”  In this case, off-label meant that it was for livestock, not dogs, but that it has worked for dogs for such a long time that Vets had no problem prescribing it.

As I live and breath, I actually had a fleeting thought and wondered a few days ago whether Ivermectin might be effective at treating Coronavirus.  I figured, “You’re not a medical doctor, never even bring this up because people will think you’ve fallen off your rocker.”

Then this.

An anti-parasitic drug available throughout the world has been found to kill COVID-19 in the lab within 48 hours.

A Monash University-led study has shown a single dose of the drug Ivermectin could stop the SARS-CoV-2 virus growing in cell culture.

“We found that even a single dose could essentially remove all viral RNA (effectively removed all genetic material of the virus) by 48 hours and that even at 24 hours there was a really significant reduction in it,” Monash Biomedicine Discovery Institute’s Dr Kylie Wagstaff said on Friday.

While it’s not known how Ivermectin works on the virus, the drug likely stops the virus dampening the host cells’ ability to clear it.

The next step is for scientists to determine the correct human dosage, to make sure the level used in vitro is safe for humans.

“In times when we’re having a global pandemic and there isn’t an approved treatment, if we had a compound that was already available around the world then that might help people sooner,” Dr Wagstaff said.

“Realistically it’s going to be a while before a vaccine is broadly available.”

Before Ivermectin can be used to combat coronavirus, funding is needed to get it to pre-clinical testing and clinical trials.

Ivermectin is an FDA-approved anti-parasitic drug also shown to be effective in vitro against viruses including HIV, dengue and influenza.

But if we’re waiting for FDA approval, we could be waiting for a very long time.  The bureaucrats get their say.

Politics Tags: ,

John Lovell Interviews Stephen Willeford

BY Herschel Smith
3 days, 9 hours ago

I’ve seen other interviews on this incident, but I learn something every time.

Timothy Treadwell Was Mauled To Death As The Camera Rolled Before The Bear Turned On His Girlfriend, Amie Huguenard

BY Herschel Smith
3 days, 9 hours ago


For 13 years Timothy Treadwell spent his summers camping out in Alaska with wild bears.

A former heroin addict, the 46-year-old found solace with the grizzlies – who he spoke to, played with and even touched. He gave each one a name and classed them as his friends.

But his luck ran out one stormy October evening when, just hours from when he was due to be picked up by seaplane to return home for winter, he was mauled to death in front of girlfriend Amie Huguenard, 37, before the bear turned on her.

Air taxi pilot Willy Fulton immediately knew what had happened when he landed at Katmai National Park to collect the duo just 24 hours after last speaking to Timothy.

Instead of finding the pair waiting on the shore, there was an eerie silence and the ‘meanest looking bear sitting atop of a pile of human remains, feeding from a human ribcage.

Tim and Aime’s tents were found collapsed and torn with their evening snack lying opened and untouched. Their shoes were lay neatly by the door.

Outside one tent lay a 3ft-high mound of grass, mud, twigs and remains, with ranger Joe Ellis spotting fingers and an arm protruding from the grotesque pile.

Nearby they found what was left of Tim’s mauled head connected to a small piece of spine. His right arm was also found, his wrist watch still attached.

But it was the video camera in Tim’s tent that would provide the full terrifying picture of what really happened.

Tim recorded all his bear interactions and the ferocious attack was no exception. But in their panic, either he or Amie didn’t have time to remove the lens, resulting in six long minutes of blood-curdling audio.

It starts with a frightened Amie asking if the bear is still out there before Tim screams: “Get out here! I’m getting killed out here!”

The tent zipper is heard going as Amie rushes out into the storm and shouts for her boyfriend to ‘play dead’. Her screams and shouts appear to work and the bear lets Tim out of its grip, but as soon as she heads to help it returns, apparently clamping its jaws around his head once more and pulling him towards the undergrowth.

Frantic, Tim screams for Amy to ‘hit the bear’ and she is heard telling him to ‘fight back’ before attacking it with a frying pan.

Throughout the bear is sinisterly silent, with Tim’s shouts giving way to moans before Amy panics and lets out a series of spine-chilling screams.

There the tape runs out.

When the bear was shot, investigators recovered four bin bags full of human remains from the stomach of the 1,000 pound 28-year-old male, who is said to have struggled to feed that season due to his age and broken teeth.

The October 2003 attack was the subject of award-winning documentary The Grizzly Man by Werner Herzog, which revealed how Amie was terrified of the bears and thought her boyfriend was ‘hellbent on destruction’.

She’d told Tim the trip would be her last and had a new job waiting for her back in California.

As for the tape, he warned that people should ‘never listen to this’ and it is believed to have been placed under lock and key with one of his friends.

That’s okay.  I don’t want to see it.

I actually don’t have a problem with his being so arrogant about things.  I also don’t have a problem with his having put himself in danger – lots of people do that for various and sundry reasons.  I also don’t have a problem with his love for the beasts.

What I have a problem with is his having put himself in a position of danger without means of self defense, and especially that he put someone else’s life in danger without that same thing.

Don’t do that with any beast, whether two-legged or four-legged, whether inner city or the bush.

Family Court Judge Searches Home In West Virginia Without A Warrant

BY Herschel Smith
3 days, 9 hours ago

After I thought I had seen it all (the Sheriff of Putnam County and his uneducated orcs), from the civil rights attorney in West Virginia, now comes this.

What on earth is wrong with the folks in West Virginia?  They can make appearances of being a 2A sanctuary all they want.  When they allow tyrants to run amok, they show themselves to be liars.

Oh, and by the way, when this wayward judge declared that she would come in the man’s home without a warrant or else she would have him arrested, notice that the cop said nothing.

Nothing.  He would have followed the unconstitutional orders.

One final thought.  Judge Louise Goldston is choir director of the Highland Avenue Baptist Church in Mullens.  Some church.

7 Reasons the AK-47 is Terrible for SHTF Survival

BY Herschel Smith
3 days, 10 hours ago

Joefour, this one is for you.  It’s you and me, Stoner versus Kalashnikov. Eugene wins every time.  Stoner rules, Kalashnikov drools.

Small Caliber Shootoff

BY Herschel Smith
5 days, 7 hours ago

Why anyone would want to penetrate cinder blocks with small bore ammunition I don’t know, but for no other reason than interest, here it is.

I’ve always thought that 22LR was a little underpowered for a varmint round.  I’m not sure I’d keep the 5.7X28 by my bed either.  I prefer PD ammunition because of things like walls, people, and neighbors.

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