Archive for the 'Immigration' Category

Immigration and Votes: Counting the Numbers

BY Herschel Smith
7 years, 9 months ago

Byron York has this rundown of a recent Gallup Poll:

Gallup has released its yearly racial breakdown on George W. Bush’s job approval rating.  (Getting such a breakdown requires a larger polling sample than Gallup’s ordinary surveys.)  The poll shows in the last two years, Bush’s ratings have remained virtually unchanged among blacks and Hispanics; it is among non-Hispanic whites that the president’s ratings have fallen significantly.

Non-Hispanic Whites           Approve            Disapprove
June 8-25, 2006                          42                   53
June 6-25, 2005                          47                   48
June 9-30, 2004                          61                   38

June 8-25, 2006                          15                   78
June 6-25, 2005                          16                   77
June 9-30, 2004                          16                   79

June 8-25, 2006                          38                   53
June 6-25, 2005                          41                   49
June 9-30, 2004                          40                   52

The numbers suggest that Bush’s ratings among blacks and Hispanics fell to the floor between June 2003 and June 2004.  Among blacks, Bush fell from 32 percent approval in June 2003 to 16 percent in June 2004.  Among Hispanics, Bush fell from 67 percent approval to 40 percent in the same period. (Among non-Hispanic whites, Bush fell from 69 percent to 61 percent in that time frame.) 

Apparently, the gushing that Bush has done over Hispanics had no effect and is having no effect.  The GOP does not have the Hispanic heart.  It is because, as I have tried to point out in the past, the Hispanic is coming to the U.S. with a completely different political paradigm.  They are socialist in world view, and they do not relinquish that world view just because they are in the U.S.

However, as I also pointed out, the GOP could very well lose the GOP base over the immigration issue, thereby ensuring its own death.  The votes are not there.  They never were, and every word spent on pushing this loser immigration policy is another nail in the coffin of the GOP.

Michelle Malkin has a link to a Washington Times article about the overstatement of the worth of the alleged Hispanic vote, and Michelle observes that this romantic pursuit of the Hispanic vote is “quixotic.”  Quixotic indeed.  Will the GOP leadership see it in time?


Will the GOP Implode in November over Immigration?

BY Herschel Smith
7 years, 9 months ago

I just can’t stand watching the Beltway Boys with Fred and Mort any more.  Fred is not conservative, and Mort is not liberal.  They are both rather vanilla, centrist pundits who make rather vanilla, centrist and uninteresting observations.  When discussing the Utah congressional primary contest between Chris Cannon and John Jacob a few days ago (the race that saw Tom Tancredo weigh in and donate money), both Fred and Mort opined that if a district as conservative as this cannot put an immigration-control candidate in office, then no district can.  Thus, the so-called “comprehensive” solution was the winner (I just hate that term “comprehensive” when referring to immigration; it is so dishonest.  It doesn’t mean “comprehensive.”  It means amnesty for those who are here and legal immigration to an extent that would make illegal immigration unnecessary).  So with a shrug of the shoulders and ten seconds of talky-talk, both pundits dismissed this vote as a non-starter.

In fact, I don’t think Mort and Fred could have missed the boat any more than they did on this issue.  Consider.  A district which has an otherwise unobjectionable candidate (Cannon) votes 44.1% to overthrow the incumbent (who was also supported by Bush) over a single issue — immigration, and this with a candiate who has made some significant political errors.

Now the GOP has to wonder if it will be able to mobilize a large percentage of its base (and its more conservative part of the base, I might add).  The inability to mobilize the base will be lethal to the party.  If Jacob had gotten 5% of the vote, it might have been an interesting little sidebar tidbit for political junkies ten years from now to discuss when playing political trivia.  If Jacob had gotten 20% of the vote, the GOP’ers at headquarters should be worrying over what had gone so wrong and whether they will be able to mobilize the base.

But Jacob got 44% of the vote.  In political terms, this is a seismic event.


***** UPDATE *****

I think that the usually brilliant Michael Barone is dead wrong on this.  I don’t think that there is life in the “compromise” plan.  But as always from Barone, a good read.

Read here.

More on the Coming Political Earthquake from Immigration

BY Herschel Smith
7 years, 10 months ago


Here I addressed the increase in voters who will vote socialist policies into place.  After quoting from “Contours of the Mexican Left,” I said:

The coming years will see a cataclysmic shift in the political scene in America with the addition of millions of voters who have been trained to believe that they are “oppressed? by the bourgeois elite and who, by the gift of a vote, will then be empowered to take from the middle class the things that they see as rightfully theirs.

I made the case in this commentary that the U.S., by the absurd immigration policy accidentally or intentionally enacted over the last two decades, will sustain the influx of millions of voters, many or most of whom will vote socialist in their world-view.  The Center for Immigration Studies has yet another political effect of immigrants, both legal and illegal.  They say:

It is important, then, when making decisions regarding immigration policy, to take into account not only the economic, fiscal, cultural, and demographic impacts of immigration, but also the political impact, part of which is the realignment of power in Congress away from states receiving relatively few immigrants. In addition to this realignment, careful consideration should also be given to the loss of representation suffered by citizens in low-immigration states. Trying to deal with this problem by excluding non-citizens, legal or illegal, would be very difficult politically and is probably impossible as a practical matter. Moreover, it would result in many years of litigation as the courts determined its constitutionality. Encouraging legal immigrants who are not citizens to naturalize would help to alleviate at least some of the problem. Of course, increased naturalizations would have no impact on the problem created by the presence of illegal aliens. In addition, as long as one million or more new legal immigrants are allowed in annually, the non-citizen population will always be very large even if new immigrants naturalize as soon as they reach the five-year time requirement. 

The central thesis of the paper is that House (of Representatives) reapportionment will not only cause a significant shift in politics due to the lose and gain of seats in the House, it already has.  This is a run-down of all House seats redistributed due to all non-citizens in 2000:

Loss of 1 (-1): Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Utah, Wisconsin.

Gains: California (+6), Florida (+1), New York (+1) and Texas (+1).  California gains this way.  As my friend intimates at “Cop the Truth,” ‘living in the occupied terrirories of southern California’, a gain by California is a gain by socialism.

So while I pointed out a coming shift in the long-term political landscape from immigration of socialists from Mexico, the Center for Immigration Studies shows us a real, short term effect that has already been realized.

Yet we keep it up.  It is simply unfathomable.

Update #1: Courtesy of John Hawkins at Right Wing News:

“Local police said they intercepted 20 illegal Mexican immigrants, but were ordered by immigration officials to let them go free.

Belmont County Sheriff Fred Thompson said his officers were instructed by federal immigration services to let all 20 illegal immigrants go free, and said his department has no choice but to follow the orders from immigration officials.”

I have said it before.  It is all about the vote.  We are watching the creation of a new welfare state — one in which the ultimate goal is to pay off the Hispanic vote with subsidies, welfare, medicaid, tuition grants, and every other way the federal government can find to spread its largesse around to garner votes.  The feds do not want to stop immigration — legal or illegal — because it creates new votes.  The goal is to make sure that the “other side” does not pick up those votes.  It is politics about as crude, crass and ugly as can be imagined.  It completely ignores the good of America in favor of the good of those in power.

Shame, shame, shame! Its all About the Vote

BY Herschel Smith
7 years, 10 months ago

Elsewhere, using Phyllis Schlaffly, I wrote about crass politics and the Hispanic vote. Now, hat tip to Kathryn Jean Lopez over at the Corner (NRO), here is confirmation. Does this just make you sick, or what? Sigh … [the Captain's head shakes sadly ... he wonders how this could be happening in America ... and what kind of country he is turning over to his children and grandchildren]

From an April 2, 2006, article in the Los Angeles Times (bold is mine):

During the 2000 election, Bush previewed a campaign video from ad-maker Lionel Sosa that used emotion-laden themes to woo Latinos.

As he watched, Sosa recalled, Bush’s face lighted up. “How much do you need for this?” Bush asked as the two men sat with Rove in the governor’s mansion in Texas, Sosa said.

Sosa replied that it would take $3 million. According to the ad-maker, Bush then turned to Rove, saying: “Give him five.”

Four years later, Sosa produced a variation of that video for the 2004 campaign that was mailed to Latino voters across the country.

The video includes images that would probably rile those who today are calling for the most restrictive immigration laws. At one point, Bush is shown waving a Mexican flag. The footage was shot, Sosa said, during a Mexican Independence Day parade in San Antonio in 1998, when Bush was running for reelection as governor.

The five-minute video, narrated by Bush, opens with an image of him fishing on his property near Crawford, Texas, as he essentially described millions of Americans who populate his home state as the true foreigners in someone else’s native land.

“About 15 years before the Civil War, much of the American West was northern Mexico,” Bush says in the video. “The people who lived there weren’t called Latinos or Hispanics. They were Mexican citizens, until all that land became part of the United States.

“After that, many of them were treated as foreigners in their own land,” Bush adds.

He says the “Latino spirit” was fueled by “strong conservative values” of family, a strong work ethic, faith in God, patriotism and personal responsibility. “These values are my values,” Bush says. “I live by them, and I lead by them.”

As Bush speaks in the video, the background music — a Latin beat — grows louder. The president is pictured waving the Mexican flag, hugging a Latino woman, and then holding a Latino baby.

Political strategists in both parties said the video illustrated how Bush, unlike other Republicans, had forged a personal relationship with Latino voters largely on his ability to convey empathy and invite them into his party.

One of Ten(?) Reasons John McCain will Never Be President

BY Herschel Smith
7 years, 10 months ago

I have been toying with the idea of writing a piece called “Ten Reasons why John McCain will Never be President of the United States,” but I am having a hard time culling the list down to ten.  For now, one will have to do.  See the informative piece “US Border Patrol Agents Angry with McCain.”  McCain will not win as an independent, he will merely draw away enough voters to make one of the two other parties lose who would not otherwise have lost.  He will certainly not run as a Democrat for President — he is too conservative.  Finally and most important, he will not win the Republican nomination because he is a RINO (Republican in Name Only).  His shameless trips to “rub shoulders” with the Christian right will not play well to the Christian right.  I know, I am the Christian right.

Phyllis Schlaffy on Immigration

BY Herschel Smith
7 years, 10 months ago

I have spoken on immigration before here, here, here and other places.  I have tried to point out how the financial burden for the poverty problem in Mexico will end up being shouldered by the American middle class (the employer gets the benefit, a form of corporate welfare).  Well, Phyllis Schlaffly’s piece over at Townhall on immigration makes the point better than I can.  She points out concerning the Senate bill that:

… the 795-page bill announces its “temporary guest worker” plan. Those words are lies because the fine print in the bill converts these workers, who are given H-2C visas, into permanent residents with the right to become citizens after five years.

The plan will start by importing 200,000 H-2C workers in the first year. The H-2Cers can immediately bring in their family members on H-4 visas, without any numeric limits and without being required to have a physical, and they will also get permanent legal residence and citizenship.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that this bill would import 7.8 million immigrants, and convert another 11 million current immigrants, legal and illegal, into U.S. citizens over the next decade. The Heritage Foundation estimates that 66 million new citizens will be added to the current population over the next 20 years. The number would accelerate as the racket called family chain migration allows more new residents to bring in more and more relatives.

The bill gives these temporary workers some preferential rights that U.S. workers do not have. These new temporary workers can’t be fired from their jobs except for “just cause,” they must be paid the prevailing wage, and they can’t be arrested for other civil immigration offenses if they are stopped for traffic violations.

The bill assures the preference of in-state college tuition (something that is denied to U.S. citizens in 49 states), and certain types of college financial assistance will be available to illegals at the state’s option. As minorities, they might even get affirmative action preferences in jobs, government contracts, and college admissions.

After the so-called temporary workers and their spouses become citizens, they can bring in their parents as permanent residents on the path to citizenship. Although the parents have never paid into Social Security, they will be eligible for Supplemental Security Income benefits, and in 46 states they will be eligible for full Medicaid benefits after five years. Siblings and adult children (and their families) will be given preference in future admissions.

The demographics of the so-called temporary workers are expected to be similar to those of the illegal immigrants already in our country. More than half will be high school dropouts, they will work low-paid jobs that require payment of little or no income tax, they are 50 percent more likely to receive taxpayer-funded government benefits than natural-born households, and they have a 42 percent rate of out-of-wedlock births (all of whom, of course, will be granted automatic U.S. citizenship).

Estimates of the cost to the taxpayers of this gargantuan expansion of the welfare state are at least $50 billion a year over the long term. U.S. taxpayers will pay for entitlements to these tens of millions of low-income families, including Medicaid, Social Security, Supplemental Security Income, Earned Income Tax Credit (cash handouts of up to $4,400 a year to low-wage households), public schooling and lunches, the WIC program, food stamps, public housing, and Temporary Assistance to Needy Families.

In the beginning I could not decipher why Bush would spend his political capital on what I call his “loser” immigration policy.  Now I see why after reading Phyllis.  It is as naked, crass and unadulterated a political move as I think we have ever seen or experienced in America.  We have seen some crass moves by the pols, but the problem here is the enormous cost associated with this new class of people.  It is a class that the pols know will be the new “minority,” who will eventually have the vote — if the pols have their way — and who will be the recipient of endless give-away programs and subsidies and the subject of countless social engineering experiments.  In short, as long as the middle class is funding this whole endeavor, the votes will keep coming to the GOP.  Or so the thinking goes.

It might be a jaded and dark view of this administration (to whom I have given the benefit of the doubt), but it appears to me that this is all about the vote.  It is as simple as that.  As for the Democrats, they see it as all about the vote, make no apologies and just want to go faster.  It is a choice between dark and darker.

To make this vision even more bleak, since the middle class American will be shouldering the burden, we might be watching the beginning of the end of the middle class in America.  I know this sounds reactionary.  If you think so, go back and re-read Phyllis.

The Presuppositions of Mort and Fred

BY Herschel Smith
7 years, 10 months ago

Just watching the Beltway Boys and I went AARRGGGGGHHHH!!! when I heard Mort make the point that by standing firm on immigration the GOP is handing the Hispanic vote to the Democrats for the foreseeable future … and Fred agreed and gushed over the Bush plan.

Time after time polls have shown that the current Hispanic citizens are either split or leaning towards strong immigration control. So what is Mort talking about? Here is the hidden presupposition. In the end, the Hispanics will get across the border and be accepted as citizens (and hence get to vote), i.e., the amnesty provision(s) of the Senate bill will prevail over the House version of immigration reform.

Now. This is what logicians call reasoning in a circle (begging the question, or petitio principii). Mort has posed the argument thusly: in the end amnesty will prevail, so the GOP should go for amnesty and therefore get the Hispanic vote. It begs the question. No one has demonstrated that amnesty will prevail yet. If it doesn’t, then there are not newly sworn-in U.S. citizens to go to the Democrats (and further, the GOP might just have shot itself in the foot with currently registered Hispanics).

Mort! Think a little more clearly. Fred! You are on the verge of being a Rebublican first and conservative second (or third, or fourth). Please re-think your positions … you and William Kristol at the Weekly Standard. Good grief. It is hard enough to battle the liberals without having these internecine wars within our own camp.

Bush Continues Relentless Push Towards GOP Suicide

BY Herschel Smith
7 years, 10 months ago

Yesterday Bush spoke again on immigration, pushing the same policy we have heard from him day after day.  Where does this come from?  Is Rove such a inept political adviser that he has not warned him off of this policy?  The AP reports:

“There are those here in Washington who say, `Why don’t we just find the folks and send them home,’” Bush said. “That ain’t gonna work.”

He said although it sounds simple, it is impractical to insist that the 12 million illegal immigrants estimated to be living in the U.S. leave and come back legally.

As I have said in earlier posts, this is a smokescreen.  A ruse.  A decoy.  If you punish employers who hire illegals, the illegals will go home on their own.  As for the practicality of insisting, I cannot find any reason that it is impractical to insist anything.  In fact, I insist right now as I write.  I insist that Bush stop pushing his loser immigration policy.  There.  It worked.  I successfully insisted something.

If he means that it is impractical to make it happen, of course, this is a lie.  It’s easy.  Put employers who hire illegals in prison.  The practice of hiring illegals will end immediately.

Here is a prediction in two parts: (a) few if any Republican House members up for (re)election will support Bush’s loser immigration policy, or (b) any Republican House member who is up for (re)election and who does support Bush’s loser immigration policy will lose.  Why?  Because it is a loser immigration policy.

Immigration Control Wins

BY Herschel Smith
7 years, 10 months ago

Update: Some blogs seems to suggest that because of low voter turnout, this election means little to nothing.  Sure.  What do you think would have happened had Bilbray’s position on immigration been directly contrary to the ten points posed below?  Does anyone honestly think the result would have been the same?  Moral of the story: Republicans have no love for the liberal position Bush is taking on immigration.  Neither, in fact, do liberals.  Bilbray took the position on immigration that every Republican should take before and after the upcoming November elections.  In other words, if there was low turnout, then the democratic base turned out, and the republican base turned out.  Now.  Imagine a position on immigration contrary to the one Bilbray took.  Does anyone really think he would have won?  Would the base have turned out?

Brian Bilbray, candidate for House in California, wins, running on the following platform:

Over the next year I will endeavor to commit as many candidates as possible to join me by pledging their support to ten essential border security and immigration reforms. These ten items are:

  1. Ending the current “Catch and release” policy by making expedited removal of illegal aliens mandatory and to require the completion of the US-VISIT entry-exit system.
  2. Authorizing the deployment of the military on the border to assist in controlling illegal immigration.
  3. Construction of a border fence along the U.S.-Mexico border extending from the Pacific Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico, starting with the most heavily trafficked border crossings.
  4. Mandatory employer verification of worker eligibility to work in the United States.
  5. Stiff penalties for knowingly hiring illegal workers, not fines that are considered “a cost of doing business.”
  6. Make clear that local and state authorities are authorized to apprehend illegal aliens in the conduct of their routine duties, a legal uncertainty that has prevented untold thousands of illegal alien captures.
  7. Prohibit illegal aliens from any access to Social Security benefits. Unbelievably, current U.S. law allows a loophole for illegal aliens to receive social security benefits. This practice must end.
  8. Removing employer tax deductions for wages and benefits paid to illegal aliens.
  9. Limiting birthright citizenship to the children of U.S. citizens and legal permanent residents.
  10. Comprehensive border and immigration enforcement legislation to end countless other loopholes that benefit illegal aliens and those who profit from their crime of illegal presence in the United States, to give law enforcement the tools and permission to enforce the laws and to compensate states for the financial impact of illegal immigration.  

Hopefully, the balance of the House, having watched what happened in liberal California, will take heed.  Perhaps the Senate should listen too?

Will the House Fall for it?

BY Herschel Smith
7 years, 10 months ago

Bush, 6/6/06, to the Border Patrol in New Mexico: “In order to secure the border, we have to make sure that people don’t feel like they need to sneak across.”

So far many people don’t get it.  A close-off of the border to illegals, all the while allowing massive numbers of “legal” guest workers will not solve the immigrant problem.  It just makes it all legal.  The public (primarily the middle class rate-payer and tax-payer) will still be responsible for the economic overhead that comes with Mexico’s poverty problem being exported to the U.S.

Here is the question: will the House of Representatives fall for it?

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