The raid to kill Bin Laden in Abbatabad, Pakistan, like a nuclear blast, has fallout beyond the immediate event.
One of those effects is the apparent impetus for closer relations between Pakistan and China.
The Economist noted earlier this month that Pakistan made no secret of praising its relations with China in the aftermath of the Bin Laden raid.
PAKISTAN’S ambassador to Beijing, Masood Kahn, was this week fully  armed with metaphors to describe the robust friendship between the two  countries. “We say it is higher than the mountains, deeper than the  oceans, stronger than steel, dearer than eyesight, sweeter than honey,  and so on.”
The relationship is indeed a geopolitical keystone for both  countries. Pakistan serves as China’s closest friend both in South Asia  and among Islamic countries. So close, indeed, that many suspect China  has asked Pakistan for the valuable remains of the American stealth  helicopter abandoned during the bin Laden raid. Meanwhile, China can  help counterbalance Pakistan’s arch-rival, India, including in  Afghanistan.
Pakistan seems keen to foster the impression that new tensions with  America might nudge it even closer towards China. In his blustery speech  to parliament on May 9th Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani struck out on  an odd tangent to praise China as an “all-weather friend”, providing  Pakistan with strength and inspiration. Not to be outdone, President  Asif Zardari issued an effusive statement of his own about a friendship  “not matched by any other relationship between two sovereign countries”.
Others have noted the attempts by Pakistan to curry favor with China as well.   The Wall Street Journal Online has this:
BEIJING—Pakistan’s defense minister said China has agreed to take  over operation of the strategically positioned but underused port of  Gwadar, and that Islamabad would like the Chinese to build a base there  for the Pakistani navy.
Ahmad Mukhtar gave no clear timetable on the possible change at  Gwadar, on Pakistan’s western coast, which is currently managed by a  Singaporean government company. But his statement Saturday is the latest  illustration of how Pakistan is portraying China as a powerful  alternative ally and aid source if the U.S. scales down military  assistance for Islamabad in the aftermath of Osama bin Laden’s killing.
On the whole, given the duplicity of Pakistan and the inevitable conflict in the Pakistani tribal areas, putting some distance between the U.S. and Pakistan may be beneficial in the long run.   In other words:  if you want to jump into bed with China, good luck with their cold feet.
Both The Economist and The Wall Street Journal Online note the decidedly ambivalent feelings about Pakistan by the Chinese.  The Economist cautions:
But if Islamabad is worried about falling out with Washington and  hopes to get more out of Beijing, it may be in for disappointment.  According to Zhu Feng of Peking University, such calculations based on  “the traditional mentality of power politics” are misplaced. China’s  robust, longstanding ties with Pakistan stand on their own merits, he  says, and owe nothing to America’s standing in Pakistan. Both China and  America want a stable Pakistan.
For all that, China’s dealings with Pakistan have always been  conducted with one eye on India. Last year Beijing chose to supply  Pakistan with two new civilian nuclear reactors, even though the deal  appeared to violate Chinese non-proliferation commitments. It was a boon  not only for Pakistan’s energy-starved economy. It was, as Mr Zhu  points out, also a way for China to counterbalance a controversial  nuclear deal reached earlier between America and India.
China and Pakistan have a lustily growing trade relationship, worth  almost $9 billion last year. China provides military gear, including  fighter jets and frigates. Some Chinese infrastructure projects in  Pakistan have strategic implications. They include ports on the Arabian  Sea and a proposed rail project which has yet to be approved, but which  would arouse controversy, and Indian ire, by running through contested  territory in Kashmir.
Still, China’s commitment to Pakistan has its limits. After  devastating floods last year, America gave Pakistan $690m, 28% of all  international aid. China’s contribution was a mere $18m. According to  Andrew Small of the German Marshall Fund, an American policy institute,  Pakistan may be “talking up the ‘China option’ beyond where the Chinese  are willing to go.” China, he reckons, will be reluctant to tilt too far  towards what might look like an anti-India alliance”. Despite border  disagreements, China wants to keep its relations with India in  reasonable order.
What is more, Pakistan’s chronic instability and its failure,  whether by design or incompetence, to suppress extremism make Pakistan  as hard a partner for China to trust as for America. “Sweeter than  honey” may be plenty sweet enough.
The WSJ sounds a similar note:
China is eager to expand its influence in Pakistan over the long term,  but is wary of the country’s chronic instability, which was highlighted  late Sunday when a Pakistani naval base was attacked in the western port  of Karachi, about 300 miles southeast of Gwadar.
Indeed.  In some ways, Pakistan and China are made for each other.  One is chronically unstable and in dire need of constant foreign aid while the other is infamously stingy and calculating in its foreign affairs.   May they enjoy each others’ company for many years.  We can certainly use the money wasted in foreign aid to Pakistan for better purposes such as freeing us from our dependence on foreign oil.
At the same time, there is no doubt that India feels the pressure of a nuclear Pakistan and nuclear China on its borders.   The U.S. has everything to gain by pursuing closer ties with India, the rising power of the Near East.   Trading Pakistan for India would be like trading Hillary Clinton for Sarah Palin.   I think we can live with that exchange.
But we should be under no illusions that, whatever happens to the American-Pakistani relationship, China is increasingly in the mood to flex its muscles in the region.   According to an article flagged at Hot Air, China has reportedly given the U.S. something of an ultimatum regarding any future border incursions into Pakistan:
Barack Obama says that if the US has another chance to get a  high-value terrorist target like Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, he’ll make  the same call as he did earlier this month.  Not so fast, says China.   According to a report from India a few days ago, China has warned that an “attack” on Pakistan will be taken as an attack on China (via Pundit Press):
In the wake of the US raid in Abbottabad that killed  Osama bin Laden, China has “warned in unequivocal terms that any attack  on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China”, a media report  claimed today.
The warning was formally conveyed by the Chinese foreign minister at  last week’s China-US strategic dialogue and economic talks in  Washington, The News daily quoted diplomatic sources as saying. China  also advised the USa to “respect Pakistan’s sovereignty and solidarity”,  the report said.
Chinese Premier Mr Wen Jiabao informed his Pakistani counterpart Mr  Yousuf Raza Gilani about the matters taken up with the US during their  formal talks at the Great Hall of the People yesterday. The report said  China “warned in unequivocal terms that any attack on Pakistan would be  construed as an attack on China”. The two premiers held a 45-minute  one-on-one meeting before beginning talks with their delegations.
The Chinese leadership was “extremely forthcoming in assuring its  unprecedented support to Pakistan for its national cause and security”  and discussed all subjects of mutual interest with Mr Gilani, the report  said. Mr Gilani described Pakistan-China relations and friendship as  “unique”. Talking to Pakistani journalists accompanying him, he said  that China had acknowledged his country’s contribution and sacrifices in  the war against terrorism and supported its cause at the international  level. “China supported Pakistan’s cause on its own accord,” Mr Gilani  said with reference to the Sino-US strategic dialogue where the Chinese  told the US that Pakistan should be helped and its national honour  respected. Mr Gilani said China had asked the US to improve its  relations with Pakistan, keeping in view the present scenario.
It it difficult to believe that China would truly be willing to go to war over, say, a Predator drone attack or even a SOF incursion into the FATA, but uncertainty over China’s reaction to any future missions of a similar nature will only add to the difficulty of having an ally with whom you are, in some measure, at war.