Archive for the 'War & Warfare' Category

Update posted on July 20, 2006.  Stay tuned.  Coming soon to the Captain’s Journal are our own proposed plans for war with Iran.  The Defense Department plans discussed below will fail.  Included will be the outline for a comprehensive strategy, justification and intended results.

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It is pretty much universally acknowledged that (a) Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, and (b) Iran is behind not only the existence of Hezbollah, but also the kidnappings of the Israeli soldiers and therefore the current situation in the middle east.  Iran has been conducting war by proxy since the creation of Hezbollah with the help of Syria, and for some reason, Ahmadinejad has chosen this point in time to start a war.  He also doesn’t seem to be too troubled by any response he might receive from Israel or the U.S.  His bluster and threats shows that he believes Iran to be immune from a successful retaliatory strike from Israel (and it would seem that he believes the U.S. to be too hamstrung by lack of intelligence and/or political baggage at home to act decisively in the middle east).  On at least some of this, he might appear to be correct.

Seymour Hersh over at The New Yorker did a fascinating piece back in April entitled “The Iran Plans.”  In this very good piece, we learned that there has been fairly directed planning to knock back the nuclear infrastructure in Iran with a bombing campaign, supplemented if necessary by special operations at specific nuclear sites.  While I don’t doubt that planning has been and is underway, I was skeptical when I read this: it is prima facie absurd to walk into this with an illusions of victory without a high cost (politically and militarily).

Here was my thinking.  We will likely not use tactical nuclear weapons.  The world will be outraged, especially if we attack using nuclear weapons without first having irrefutable evidence of a nuclear program.  An attack of this nature invariably destroys the evidence we need.  The Iranians have had a chance to study our conventional capabilities in Afghanistan, and have buried their centrifuges deep enough that we cannot effect them.  In fact, I would predict that the facilities are deep enough under ground to avoid destruction — with some safety margin.  If I was the engineer responsible for designing the defense features of the facilities, that is what I would do.

So what is really needed are boots on the ground.  I have serious doubts that there is any foolish planning for regime change or occupation of Iran at the Pentagon.  If the U.S. actually goes into Iran, it will be to retrieve centrifuges and weapons-grade fissile material.  The Army is too slow and lumbering to place inside Iran (with the possible exception of the 82nd and 101st Airborne; but use of them would be disastrous for reasons that would take me far afield).  There aren’t enough special forces operators for this to be exclusively a special forces war.  Therefore, the Marines have to do it.  They are designed for rapid, mobile and intense warfare with no support from anyone but the Marines (i.e., the MEU).

Now.  Proceeding from here, there is no way to get Marines to the sites that they need to be at.  For example, the primary enrichment site — Natanz — is about 250 miles from the border with Iraq and 450 miles from the border with Afghanistan (see here for map).  Many other potential nuclear sites are just as far, if not further, from either border (or the Persian Gulf).  The primary method of transport to hot zones, the helicopter, hasn’t the range to get Marines to these sites.  The new MV-22 (the Osprey) has a range of 242 nautical miles carrying 24 troops (using a conversion of 0.869 nautical miles to miles, this is 278 U.S. miles).  It is possible, though not likely, that we would choose this method of transport, if the Osprey could carry more troops.  This capacity is not enough.  Moreover, the MV-22 is not quite ready for service and there aren’t enough of them.  The target date for deployment is early 2007.

But then again, what is needed to stop the nuclear program is to set up a temporary perimeter around the nuclear sites, remove the fissile material if there is any, take the centrifuges, and then get out.  If bombing alone will not work, there aren’t enough special forces to do it, and there is no way to get enough special forces or Marines there to begin with, then what about all of this war planning with Iran?  How will this come off?

This was my thinking when I first read Hersh’s first article.  Fast forward to just a few days ago, and Seymour Hersh has posted another interesting piece entitled “Last Stand: The military’s problem with the President’s Iran policy.”  A whole host of problems are becoming apparent to the military planners and strategists, and an apparent mini-war is going on in the Pentagon and State Department over if and just how such a thing as an attack on Iran would come off.

A senior military official told me, “Even if we knew where the Iranian enriched uranium was—and we don’t—we don’t know where world opinion would stand. The issue is whether it’s a clear and present danger. If you’re a military planner, you try to weigh options. What is the capability of the Iranian response, and the likelihood of a punitive response—like cutting off oil shipments? What would that cost us?

I have received this press release from Joseph Casas:

Hamdania: Press Release from Legal Counsel Joseph Casas

Representing PFC John J. Jodla III

July 11, 2006

“Perplexing Lack of Official Cooperation in Hamdania Case”

* Today is day 60 of confinement for PFC Jodka and the rest of the Pendleton 8.

* We have requested tons of evidence and have received nothing but the preliminary investigation – we have yet to get a full autopsy report.

* We’ve made several key expert/investigator requests and a site visit request – all of which are still unanswered … yesterday we requested a status on our requests and I have yet to receive a reply.

* The grave concern is that we have an Article 32 in early August (either week 1 or week 2) to prepare for and we don’t have what we need to defend this case.

* To make matters worse, appointed military defense counsel is out of the area (in 29 palms) and most of the military defense counsel are being recalled to active duty (i.e., reservists), out of area, and don’t have a place to work out of.  If the military is going to appoint defense counsel to assist the civilian counsel, then they can’t just do so using smoke and mirrors, they must appoint defense counsel that can truly assist in the defense.

* Time is of the essence in this case, the Marines are facing the death penalty!

Joseph N. Casas, J.D., M.B.A.

Casas Law Group, P.C.

Attorneys & Counselors at Law

www.casaslaw.com

End of Press Release, beginning of my comments.  This is all still current with the caveat that Casas has been contacted by the prosecutors who have told him that they are working on his requests.  Overall, my impression of all of this is that this is just plain wrong.  I keep hearing that the military justice system is the best on earth.  The military will not allow the guilty to go unpunished nor the innocent to be punished.  They are the fairest of the fair.

Well, tell me when all of this fairness starts.  Is there a date that I should be on the lookout for?  Good grief!  Legal wranglings begin soon and no one from the defense team has been able to get to the scene of the alleged crime (through no fault of their own).  How do you properly defend a case like this?  How do you take pride in a system that so far has given the defense nothing, not even an opportunity to see Hamdania?

Well, looky here!  Surprise, surprise.  Cooperation between Iran and North Korea.  I am sure that both Iran and North Korea need the missiles and nuclear technology to protect themselves against all of those threats (you know, Kuwait’s threats against Iran, and Liechtenstein’s threats against N. Korea).

In another post I made a few days ago, I criticized the MSM for failure to go into Ramadi (while I also sent people to another Michael Fumento article), saying they were too cowardly to do it.  Someone (incredibly) came to the defense of the MSM, and an argument ensued, until, that is, Michael Fumento weighed in.  He brought the argument to a swift and decisive conclusion, saying:

Insofar as I repeatedly noted in my Weekly Standard article that Todd Pitman was with me in Ramadi, it’s hardly a state secret. Todd is a good reporter and courageous, but his one-time stint in Ramadi (he’s back at home in Africa right now) cannot make up for the lack of MSM coverage in Ramadi or other areas outside Baghdad. As I noted in response to a letter to the Weekly Standard, it’s easy enough to google “Ramadi

Here is Zarqawi from the CENTCOM web site (page “What Extremists are Saying“):

“”Why do not you tell them that your soldiers cannot sleep without taking drugs and hallucination pills …

Barbara Boxer, as shown and discussed on The Factor with Bill O’Reilly, July 10, 2006:

“Our soldiers are having to take anti-depressants …”

The context made it clear that she was discussing forward-deployed soldiers and Marines.  In Fact, the always enjoyable Col. David Hunt had to refute this claim.

I also know that our boys cannot have any drugs, alcohol, women or anything else that would interfere with the performance of their duties or otherwise adversely effect them when deployed.  The only thing they can have is tobacco.

There you have it.  Zarqawi and Boxer – extremists.  Boxer slams our boys in harm’s way because they use smokeless tobacco.

Nice job, Barbara.  Do you feel proud?

Below “Lefty” takes me to task for insulting the MSM.  And then he accuses me of dripping sarcasm in my posts/responses.

I have sat alone in the dark and become pensive over this whole issue, and I have concluded that I did indeed insult the MSM.  And I have wept buckets and buckets of tears over it.

As to this issue of how reporting “from Ramadi,” or “from Haditha,” goes, primarily the MSM is holed up in Baghdad.  They (the brave ones) travel to a site — sometimes — like Ramadi, set up shop on the outskirts of the city where the risk is reduced, and pay informants and other news sources for information about a locale.  Then they report “from Ramadi,” or “from Haditha.”  The more cowardly ones just stay holed up in Baghdad.

Michael Fumento, on the other hand, dons full combat gear, goes in with the boys who are there, and gives us a first hand look during actual combat (like Ernie Pyle).

Michael Fumento is the closest thing to Ernie Pyle we have.  God bless Michael Fumento.

As for the MSM, I have wept buckets of tears over my insult to them.

You do believe my repentance, don’t you, Lefty?  Buckets and buckets of tears.

Here is a good article from MSNBC (I don’t usually like the stuff they produce) on warrior ethics.  It was worth the time spent reading it.  I would also mention a post I made some time ago on Calvin and Aquinas on war (most of the post was quoting Calvin, with a pointer to a paper in “First Things” on the subject of good wars).  This is an even better read, very scholarly and studied.  It may sound jingoistic to some people (who haven’t a foundation, or “world view” from which to launch the balance of their thinking), but there are good reasons for waging war and defending yourself and others.  The fathers of the church even call this a “ministry” to others.

Hmmm.  What would the folks over at Daily Kos think of war as a “ministry?”

I have said before that I do not know, but suspect what happened in Haditha (the Marines engaged in a fire fight and employed approved and necessary room-clearing tactics designed to save Marine lives).  I will wait until the evidence is in.  And it better be conclusive!  But until it comes in, let’s play ‘What’s wrong with this picture?’

It comes from MSNBC.com, and its caption reads:

This image purportedly shows a room where some of the Haditha civilians died. A lawyer representing several of the families of victims provided the photo to media (bold mine).

At least they had the foresight to say “purportedly.”  Take a hard look at the alleged blood splatter pattern.  No, the one up above the bed head board and adjacent to the top of the window.  If I am not mistaken, this is remarkably consistent with someone jumping up in the air four feet and being shot at the apex of his ascent.  Note the fact that the report claims that the occupants of the room were not killed by a fragmentation grenade, but by gun shots.

So we’re back to that person jumping up in the air four feet.

This is very moving — and a must read for those who care about our boys in harm’s way.

Farewell

The Strategy Page has this from July 6:

July 6, 2006: The large number of  charges brought against U.S. troops for crimes against civilians recently is partly coincidence (the rate of such incidents is much less than in past wars, but that is not considered news) and partly right out of the al Qaeda playbook. Making false accusations of atrocities, to attract media attention, is recommended in al Qaeda training documents, as a good way to keep the enemy off balance. After three years of defeats, al Qaeda, and their Iraqi Sunni Arab allies, are in need of some good news. Atrocities can be created, by forcing witnesses to make false claims, and to otherwise fabricate evidence. Anti-American media will not examine the evidence too closely, and will instead run with the story. That most of these claims turn out to be false is, again, not news, and the terrorists know it. Repeat a lie often enough, and it becomes, to some at least, the truth.

On June 23 I said this:

Make no mistake about it.  The tactics of the future will be some or all of the following:

1. Beheadings
2. Kidnappings 
3. Body mutilations and torture of those captured or kidnapped (don’t ever forget that