To read the reports of the results of the recent visit of Deputy Secretary of States John D. Negroponte to Pakistan (along with US Assistant Secretary Richard Boucher), one might be tempted to think that all was well with U.S. -Pakistani relations.  But the reception was described as cold, and many in Pakistan saw the visit not only as ham-handed pressure, but panic over the Pakistani turn away from the U.S.-led global war on terror.  In Misinterpreting the Pakistani Elections we discussed the common (and incorrect) narrative that the recent elections saw the rejection of the Islamists in Pakistan (in reality the rejection was of the old guard’s ability to govern rather than the views of the Taliban).  In Pashtun Rejection of the Global War on Terror we discussed the turn away from U.S. interests by many in Pakistan.  The blame, they say, rests with the U.S.

Some senior Pakistani military leaders say that the U.S. failure in Afghanistan has shifted the war to Pakistan.  In order to remedy the situation, tribal leaders in Pakistan want the jirga system.

Elders of the Khyber Tribal Agency on Wednesday urged the US administration to stop seeking military solution to militancy in the tribal areas and suggested adopting traditional means of Jirga to end the resistance. A group of 11 tribal elders led by Malik Darya Khan met US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte and Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher in Landikotal Cantonment. They told the US officials that the centuries-old Jirga system was still effective in the tribal territory, which provided remedy for every trouble, including the scourge of terrorism.

In other words, the tribal leaders want to negotiate.  Key Pakistani leaders have gone further, saying that we ought to review what the word terror means.  But as we have discussed in Baitullah Mehsud Ready for Talks with Pakistan, the preconditions for peace involve a complete disengagement with the U.S. war on terror.  In case this point has been missed, the Taliban have recently made it clear again.

Welcoming the offer of negotiations by Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani, representatives of Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Bajaur — shown brandishing lethal weapons on the TV channels — have told Islamabad what it has to do if it wants no trouble from them. TTP leaders, including Maulvi Faqir Muhammad, Maulvi Sher Bahadar, Dr Muhammad Ismail, and party spokesman Maulvi Omar, said they were ready for talks with the government if Pakistan were “to give up its pro-US stance first”. (Some newspapers reported it as “sever ties with the US”.)

The TTP warriors also demanded implementation of sharia law and the jirga system for their territory “according to tribal traditions”, assuming that sharia law was not in force in the rest of Pakistan. They added, however, that “jihad against America would continue in Afghanistan”, but that they were ready “to end their activities and improve law and order in Pakistan if the government showed flexibility”. The atmosphere in the TTP gathering in Inayat Killay in Bajaur was very upbeat after feeling the winds of change blowing in Islamabad.

The situation could not be clearer.  Pakistan is turning hard left away from the long war, and the administration is right to be worried.  However, we could have told the State Department that a visit by diplomats would have no affect (the State Department ought to be reading The Captain’s Journal).  The lack of timeliness in the campaign in Afghanistan has placed this administration - and will place the next administration - in the hard position of having to take unilateral action in the NWFP and FATA of Pakistan, even in violation of Pakistani sovereignty.  Al Qaeda and the Taliban currently have almost unmitigated freedom in this area, and there is a cold wind blowing that will probably make this situation worse before it gets better.