5 years ago
The so-called “experts” are coming to the same conclusion I reached years ago.
Officials in key parts of the Obama administration are increasingly convinced that sanctions will not deter Tehran from pursuing its nuclear programme, and believe that the US will be left with no option but to launch an attack on Iran or watch Israel do so.
The president has made clear in public, and in private to Israel, that he is determined to give sufficient time for recent measures, such as the financial blockade and the looming European oil embargo, to bite deeper into Iran’s already battered economy before retreating from its principal strategy to pressure Tehran.
But there is a strong current of opinion within the administration – including in the Pentagon and the state department – that believes sanctions are doomed to fail, and that their principal use now is in delaying Israeli military action, as well as reassuring Europe that an attack will only come after other means have been tested.
“The White House wants to see sanctions work. This is not the Bush White House. It does not need another conflict,” said an official knowledgeable on Middle East policy. “Its problem is that the guys in Tehran are behaving like sanctions don’t matter, like their economy isn’t collapsing, like Israel isn’t going to do anything.
“Sanctions are all we’ve got to throw at the problem. If they fail then it’s hard to see how we don’t move to the ‘in extremis’ option.”
Shocked! Shocked, they are, that sanctions aren’t working. It’s as if the Obama administration sees things only through Western, secular eyes, and the Mullahs in Iran see things through religious, apocalyptic and eschatological eyes. It’s as if the Mullahs don’t place the same importance on things that the “experts” in the administration do, you know, the issue of self preservation, survival of the nation-state, and so on. It’s as if the Mullahs are willing to sacrifice Iran to bring about the global apocalypse necessary to usher in the Caliphate.
Sanction are all we’ve got to throw at the problem. Good grief. We’ve got many more things than that. While the Obama administration may not need a war, as they said, Iran has been at war with the U.S. for thirty years. Whether he knew it or not, Obama entered office while at war with Iran. If his advisers didn’t explain that to him, well then, they aren’t the real experts at all.
As I have advocated, we should have engaged Iran in the covert war they are waging against us. Recall that I have called for reversing executive order 12333 and assassinating general Suleimani. I have called for supporting the Green movement, I have called for a program of targeted assassinations of high level Quds force commanders, and I have called for fomenting an insurgency inside of Iran. Regime change is the order of the day.
But we chose to believe that negotiations, talks, letters, videos to the Iranian people, and everything else on earth would suffice for engagement of Iran as an enemy. Now, we are out of time, and we (and/or Israel) will pay the price for it. My way was easier and involved covert warfare. We chose to ignore the easy way, and so now we will go it the hard way, with overt warfare.