The Strategy Page has this from July 6:

July 6, 2006: The large number of  charges brought against U.S. troops for crimes against civilians recently is partly coincidence (the rate of such incidents is much less than in past wars, but that is not considered news) and partly right out of the al Qaeda playbook. Making false accusations of atrocities, to attract media attention, is recommended in al Qaeda training documents, as a good way to keep the enemy off balance. After three years of defeats, al Qaeda, and their Iraqi Sunni Arab allies, are in need of some good news. Atrocities can be created, by forcing witnesses to make false claims, and to otherwise fabricate evidence. Anti-American media will not examine the evidence too closely, and will instead run with the story. That most of these claims turn out to be false is, again, not news, and the terrorists know it. Repeat a lie often enough, and it becomes, to some at least, the truth.

On June 23 I said this:

Make no mistake about it.  The tactics of the future will be some or all of the following:

1. Beheadings
2. Kidnappings 
3. Body mutilations and torture of those captured or kidnapped (don’t ever forget that �The bodies were mutilated so badly that positive identification could not be made in Iraq.�)
4. Use of women and children as shields
5. Despicable acts of brutality, made to look as if coalition forces perpetrated the acts.
6. “Witnesses� who saw coalition forces perpetrating the acts.  These “witnesses� will most likely be Sunni Iraqis.  The “witnesses� in Afghanistan will be mostly Taliban sympathizers.
7. Vociferous media releases — whether Aljazeera, tapes by Zawahiri, “witnesses� who tell U.S. media embeds about “atrocities� committed by the U.S. troops, etc.  The goal will be simply to get the story out by whatever means is necessary.

Yes, the enemy has gotten quite clever and has adapted well to the importance of U.S. public perception.  He no longer cares about moving his ideology forward by preaching Islam, per se.  That will come later.  Winning the war, in his mind, requires tactics that are more practical and effective than he has employed before.  The aim will be to make U.S. troops less certain of what they are aiming at and less willing to pull the trigger, and consequently, to make Iraq a much more dangerous place for the U.S. troops. The corollary is that the U.S. public will tire of seeing these brutalities and support for the war will wane.  So goes the thinking, and this represents a real paradigm shift in their tactics. 

Glad to see that we are together on this, but sorry to see that I am right.