AR-15 Ammunition And Barrel Twist Rate

Herschel Smith · 19 Feb 2017 · 7 Comments

There are a lot of articles and discussion forum threads on barrel twist rate for AR-15s.  So why am I writing one?  Well, some of the information on the web is very wrong.  Additionally, this closes out comment threads we've had here touching on this topic, EMail exchanges I've had with readers, and personal conversations I've had with shooters and friends about this subject.  It's natural to put this down in case anyone else can benefit from the information.  Or you may not benefit at…… [read more]

MGM Issues Correction: Shots Were Fired At Festival At The Same Time Or Within Forty Seconds Jesus Campos Reported Being Shot

BY Herschel Smith
1 week, 3 days ago

Via reader B Bauch, this.

Mandalay Bay hotel officials said Thursday the Las Vegas gunman wounded a security guard in a hotel hallway within 40 seconds of firing into the crowd at a music festival, disputing a police timeline that put six minutes from the time the guard was shot and when Stephen Paddock committed the worst mass shooting in U.S. history.

In the most recent chronology given by investigators on Monday, police said Paddock sprayed 200 rounds into the hallway on the 32nd floor Oct. 1, wounding an unarmed security guard in the leg, six minutes before he unleashed his barrage of bullets on the festival crowd. He killed 58 people and injured nearly 500 before taking his own life.

In the industry in which I work, we have conducted forensic analysis, failure modes and effects analysis and event investigations many thousands of times.  I’ve done them too, many times.  I’ve also been through Management Oversight and Risk Tree training with EG&G.  One thing is clear from all of that.  Before anything else gets done, a team of experts creates a time line and sequence of events that is verified, forensically defensible and absolutely correct, with enough fidelity to perform your analysis.  Until you have that, you have nothing.  Nothing.

For this particular event based on published and verified reports, Jesus Campos was shot before, during and after the shooting of the crowd.

The FBI is either stupid (I hate voluntarily stupid people) or corrupt (I hate corrupt people).

Las Vegas Shooter Hit Rate Greater Than 50 Percent

BY Herschel Smith
1 week, 4 days ago

CBS News:

Undersheriff Kevin McMahill defended the hotel and said the encounter that night between Paddock and the security guard and maintenance man disrupted the gunman’s plans. Paddock fired more than 1,000 bullets and had more than 1,000 rounds left in his room, the undersheriff said.

This is the first time I’ve seen in print that he shot somewhere around 1000 rounds.  Supposedly, somewhere around 500 people were injured (489), and 58 people killed by the Las Vegas shooter.  Even if some of the injured were due to shrapnel, glass and flying debris, this is still around 50% hit rate.  I’ll lay this out there without comment.  Readers can make of it what you will and do the research for wartime fire and hit rate, even with automatic weapons.

Via reader Mack, True Pundit has insider information, publishing information here and here.  I’ll also lay this out there without comment, except to say that Andrew McCabe is the very definition of the deep state.

Administrative Notes On Las Vegas Shooting

BY Herschel Smith
1 week, 5 days ago

I haven’t weighed in with any detail on the Las Vegas Shooting since this post.  I’m not ignoring the published reports, nor am I ignoring the notes readers send to me.  But I’m waiting until I have clarity and enough information to make a substantial article.  In the mean time, there are a number of things that make you go … hmm …

Like this report telling us that a key witness in the Las Vegas shootings “committed suicide.”

And this report linked by WRSA (and also sent by readers).

Please keep me in the loop and continue to mail important revelations to me.

The Collapse Of The Government Narrative On The Las Vegas Shooting

BY Herschel Smith
2 weeks, 3 days ago

The internet is swirling with possible scenarios for things that could have happened.  I’ve seen a lot of them and won’t rehearse them here.  It isn’t necessary to rehearse what might have been, what could have been, what’s possible, and what is feasible, in order to understand that the government narrative is infeasible.

For me there are two pieces of evidence that point conclusively to the fact that this didn’t go down the way the FBI says it went down.  Everyone who has operated guns for a long while, like I have, had to ask themselves the following question: “If God forbid I decided to perpetrate something evil like this, what would that room have looked like when I was finished?”

The answer for most knowledgeable and sensible people is this: “Not like that.”  Not at all like that.  After firing so many rounds from rifles, the curtains, my face, my clothing, the carpet, the bedding, and just about everything else, would have been so covered with carbon and lead deposits that the dominant colors would have been black and grey in any photograph.  I know this from range time, and you do too.

Moreover, I probably would have been wearing eye protection, as I know what it’s like to shoot with brass, lead, carbon and other such things flying around.  That room looked like the maid had just been there and cleaned everything but the body lying on the floor.  No carbon, very little brass (there would have been a mountain of brass, along with spent casings everywhere), and no flesh from the head penetration to the shooter when he was killed.

The second piece of evidence for me is even more convincing.  Watch this video, and listen and watch extra carefully at about the 12:00 mark.

While I don’t agree that the video demonstrates that any of these firearms are belt-fed or crew serve weapons, or suppressed, there is no mistaking one fact.  He points out a moment in the video where two or more shooters must be shooting.  There is no other way to interpret that video.  Many of the suppositions in other posts, entries, discussion forums and threads have multiple explanations or plausible alternative possibilities.  This one doesn’t.  There are at least two shooters at that moment.

This all means one thing.  Fedgov is lying to you about what happened.  I don’t know what happened that night, and as I said I would need to be wrapped into the process to know (autopsy reports, crime scene access, time to study all of the videos, opportunity to interview the eyewitnesses, and so on).  But I don’t have to tell you what happened in order to tell you that the government account didn’t happen.

It didn’t go down the way they said it went down, with one lone shooter firing bump fire stock AR-15s from one vantage point for no reason under the sun except that he lost gambling money (or whatever).  Their story is a lie.  Hopefully the truth will come out, but I’m not holding my breath.

Where Will Gun Control Go In Wake Of The Las Vegas Shooting?

BY Herschel Smith
2 weeks, 5 days ago

Some links, and then a brief assessment from me.

Nick Gillespie, bless his heart, is fighting the good fight, with a very good article at Reason arguing that now is the time for less gun control, not more.  I agree.

Paul Ryan, known to us as the communist shill who hates gun rights, has said that the SHARE act is dead for the time being.

Someone named Andrea Ruth, writing at Red State, argues for more involvement of the community witch doctors we know as Psychiatrists.  I suppose she wants mental health “professionals” to approve all gun purchases.  Perhaps she would think differently is a mental health professional had to approve her raising a child, or driving a car.

The White House punts on suppressors, saying essentially there is no love for the SHARE act.

And Trump himself has said “we’ll be talking about gun laws.”  Great.  I wouldn’t be so concerned about that if I thought he held to any doctrine on anything at all.

My brief assessment.  The shooter had an awful lot of guns and magazines, more than he could ever shoot in several days of being in that room.  These were magazines that hold more than 30 rounds.  He spent an awful lot of money on weapons, more than I find feasible in a short amount of time (like months or even several years).  These were pricey weapons, not low-end guns.

Something is very wrong with this picture.  I don’t like it at all, but it’s going to take time to cipher all of this.  Something feels very rotten, and as if on queue, the controllers started spewing forth their gun control bullshit as soon as this happened.

AR-15s, AR-10s, high capacity magazines and slide fire (or bump fire) stocks will be the boogeyman.  I expect a reassessment of slide fire stocks very soon by the ATF, or an executive order challenged by no one, that places them on the NFA list.

I expect the introduction of new gun control bills in Congress, and all it takes is the democrats and a few republicans (along with Trump), and we have a brand new assault weapons ban.  Perhaps this is intended in all of this.

Times are going to get dicey for us.  Hold on to your breeches.  The ride is liable to get rough.

Tactical Response To Las Vegas Shooting

BY Herschel Smith
2 weeks, 6 days ago

Here is a remarkable video.  Watch it completely.

In this video, you’ll notice at least the following things.  Feel free to add to them in the comments.  I’m going to address my remarks to the response of the people, not LEOs.  I don’t care, per se, about LEOs in this commentary because I’m not focused on LEOs.

The music is loud.  Being in such venues under these conditions means that at least one of your senses has been effectively removed because you can’t hear threats.  The crowd is densely packed.  It was hard to move around when the shooting started.

The reaction is lethargic and extremely delayed.  Even when the music stopped and the shooting was identified, the people on the video laughed rather than sought cover or concealment.  The venue itself was effectively a confined space, with an overwatch from the hotel (and perhaps other hotels or buildings).  This gave a shooter great position to use a long range, standoff weapon in relative safety while he perpetrated his evil.

Even after it was recognized that there was a shooting and they were in danger, the people stopped to take videos, laugh, talk, and variously jibber-jabber and yak about what was happening.  With this kind of response, it’s a miracle that hundreds more didn’t die.

Folks, confined spaces are dangerous.  They can kill you.  You can be trampled, you can be shot, you can be knifed, you can be run over, and you can be assaulted.  You are usually hemmed in on one or more sides, and concealment and cover is usually limited in venues like this.  Confined spaces also concentrate gases, contaminants and dangerous biological hazards.  Here they were in a confined space with no protection, and yet they were lethargic in their response.

Remember the three E’s.  Evasion, Egress and Escape.  Evade the initial danger, find suitable egress from the danger, and escape the location.  Get out without delay.  Better yet, avoid crowds like this, and examine the nature of the venue before you ever go.  In conditions like this where there is an “observation post,” or conditions are good for one to have been set up, make your escape before anything happens.  In other words, begin thinking about your safety at all times and in all locations.

With America behaving like this, with lethargy being the order of the day, and with safety and security being the last thing people consider, and also with the influx of MS-13 members, Islamists and other bad actors across the borders, we are set up for disaster and many more events like this, of much greater magnitude.

Don’t buy the hype or the progressive talking points.  Gun control won’t help this situation.  With the foundations for civil unrest or even civil war being laid by the deep state, and with the porous sieve that defines our Southern border, this cannot be dealt with simply or with another law or regulation.  America needs to think differently about her future.

Do that right now.

Josh Abbot Band’s Caleb Keeter Changes His Mind On Gun Control

BY Herschel Smith
2 weeks, 6 days ago

Washington Post:

However, one member of the band went even further, posting a lengthy message on Twitter about his personal response to the attack. After spending the night fearing for his life, Caleb Keeter, the group’s lead guitarist, spoke up about gun control.

“I’ve been a proponent of the 2nd amendment my entire life. Until the events of last night. I cannot express how wrong I was. We actually have members of our crew with [Concealed Handgun Licenses], and legal firearms on the bus,” Keeter wrote. “They were useless.” He continued:

We couldn’t touch them for fear police might think we were part of the massacre and shoot us. A small group (or one man) laid waste to a city with dedicated, fearless police officers desperately trying to help, because of access to an insane amount of fire power.

Enough is enough.

Writing my parents and the love of my life a goodbye last night and a living will because I felt like I wasn’t going to live through the night was enough for me to realize that this is completely and totally out of hand. These rounds were just powerful enough that my crew guys just standing in close proximity of a victim shot by this f—ing coward received shrapnel wounds.

We need gun control RIGHT. NOW. My biggest regret is that I stubbornly didn’t realize it until my brothers on the road and myself were threatened by it. We are unbelievably fortunate to not be among the number of victims killed or seriously wounded by this maniac.

So part of being a proponent of the second amendment for you is believing that a handgun would be of any use against a long range, standoff weapon like a long gun?  And in spite of the fact that the shooter didn’t use handguns, you project the evil of what happened on your own guns that you consider worthless for self defense, disregarding the fact that they would have been quite useful had the shooter decided to engage close quarters battle with you?  And you didn’t ponder the fact that a handgun would have indeed been useful to someone who did engage the shooter in close quarters battle?

I see.  Why don’t you stick with music and leave the thinking to thinking men.

Ralph Peters Does Gun Control In The Wake Of The Las Vegas Shooting

BY Herschel Smith
2 weeks, 6 days ago

The Hill:

Fox News strategic analyst Ralph Peters said “the Founding Fathers didn’t want every juiced-up psycho to have a machine gun collection” and argued that “an armed crowd” would have only made the situation worse after a mass shooting at a Las Vegas concert left at least 58 dead and more than 500 wounded.

“The idea that an armed crowd would’ve made a difference — if it made any difference, it would’ve been worse,” Peters told Stuart Varney on Fox Business. “And I am a gun owner. I will always be a gun owner.”

“But the Founding Fathers didn’t want every juiced-up psycho to have a machine gun collection,” he continued. “We need to look at what kind of weapons they had — clearly, this guy had military-grade weapons — and where he got them. Because automatic rifles are illegal for the average citizen to own.

How the hell do you know what the founding fathers wanted beyond what they wrote, drama queen?  And I assume that you have a clinical definition for the phrase “juiced-up psycho?”  Let’s hear it, doctor.  Give me your clinical definition.  We’re waiting.  Oh, I see.  You don’t have one.  Okay, on to the next point.

As to this notion that the founding fathers didn’t want “civilians” to own “military grade” weapons, you expect us to believe that the patriot fighters during the war of independence, who had risked their lives, livelihoods, families and fortunes, and who shot cannon when they had powder and ball, and who used these weapons against the government, would not have wanted machine guns if they had access to them?  You only think that because you’re an idiot.

I told my sons Joshua and Joseph about your commentary, Ralph, and we all agreed that we care more what our dogs had to say about gun control than we did what you have to say.  Joseph asked Roxie, his Chow, a very sweet girl, and she looked at him like I look over the top of my glasses at somebody stupid.

Roxie thinks you’re full of crap, Ralph.  So do I.


26th MEU (10)
Abu Muqawama (12)
ACOG (2)
ACOGs (1)
Afghan National Army (36)
Afghan National Police (17)
Afghanistan (679)
Afghanistan SOFA (4)
Agriculture in COIN (3)
AGW (1)
Air Force (31)
Air Power (9)
al Qaeda (83)
Ali al-Sistani (1)
America (10)
Ammunition (32)
Animals in War (4)
Ansar al Sunna (15)
Anthropology (3)
Antonin Scalia (1)
AR-15s (104)
Arghandab River Valley (1)
Arlington Cemetery (2)
Army (57)
Assassinations (2)
Assault Weapon Ban (26)
Australian Army (5)
Azerbaijan (4)
Backpacking (2)
Badr Organization (8)
Baitullah Mehsud (21)
Basra (17)
BATFE (56)
Battle of Bari Alai (2)
Battle of Wanat (17)
Battle Space Weight (3)
Bin Laden (7)
Blogroll (2)
Blogs (7)
Body Armor (17)
Books (3)
Border War (7)
Brady Campaign (1)
Britain (27)
British Army (35)
Camping (4)
Canada (2)
Castle Doctrine (1)
Caucasus (6)
CENTCOM (7)
Center For a New American Security (8)
Charity (3)
China (10)
Christmas (8)
CIA (25)
Civilian National Security Force (3)
Col. Gian Gentile (9)
Combat Outposts (3)
Combat Video (2)
Concerned Citizens (6)
Constabulary Actions (3)
Coolness Factor (2)
COP Keating (4)
Corruption in COIN (4)
Council on Foreign Relations (1)
Counterinsurgency (215)
DADT (2)
David Rohde (1)
Defense Contractors (2)
Department of Defense (132)
Department of Homeland Security (17)
Disaster Preparedness (3)
Distributed Operations (5)
Dogs (6)
Donald Trump (1)
Drone Campaign (3)
EFV (3)
Egypt (12)
El Salvador (1)
Embassy Security (1)
Enemy Spotters (1)
Expeditionary Warfare (17)
F-22 (2)
F-35 (1)
Fallujah (17)
Far East (3)
Fathers and Sons (1)
Favorite (1)
Fazlullah (3)
FBI (15)
Featured (177)
Federal Firearms Laws (18)
Financing the Taliban (2)
Firearms (710)
Football (1)
Force Projection (35)
Force Protection (4)
Force Transformation (1)
Foreign Policy (27)
Fukushima Reactor Accident (6)
Ganjgal (1)
Garmsir (1)
general (14)
General Amos (1)
General James Mattis (1)
General McChrystal (41)
General McKiernan (6)
General Rodriguez (3)
General Suleimani (7)
Georgia (19)
GITMO (2)
Google (1)
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar (1)
Gun Control (556)
Guns (1,205)
Guns In National Parks (3)
Haditha Roundup (10)
Haiti (2)
HAMAS (7)
Haqqani Network (9)
Hate Mail (7)
Hekmatyar (1)
Heroism (4)
Hezbollah (12)
High Capacity Magazines (11)
High Value Targets (9)
Homecoming (1)
Homeland Security (1)
Horses (1)
Humor (13)
ICOS (1)
IEDs (7)
Immigration (59)
India (10)
Infantry (4)
Information Warfare (2)
Infrastructure (2)
Intelligence (23)
Intelligence Bulletin (6)
Iran (169)
Iraq (378)
Iraq SOFA (23)
Islamic Facism (50)
Islamists (75)
Israel (18)
Jaish al Mahdi (21)
Jalalabad (1)
Japan (2)
Jihadists (80)
John Nagl (5)
Joint Intelligence Centers (1)
JRTN (1)
Kabul (1)
Kajaki Dam (1)
Kamdesh (9)
Kandahar (12)
Karachi (7)
Kashmir (2)
Khost Province (1)
Khyber (11)
Knife Blogging (3)
Korea (4)
Korengal Valley (3)
Kunar Province (20)
Kurdistan (3)
Language in COIN (5)
Language in Statecraft (1)
Language Interpreters (2)
Lashkar-e-Taiba (2)
Law Enforcement (3)
Lawfare (6)
Leadership (5)
Lebanon (6)
Leon Panetta (2)
Let Them Fight (2)
Libya (14)
Lines of Effort (3)
Littoral Combat (8)
Logistics (49)
Long Guns (1)
Lt. Col. Allen West (2)
Marine Corps (246)
Marines in Bakwa (1)
Marines in Helmand (67)
Marjah (4)
MEDEVAC (2)
Media (37)
Memorial Day (3)
Mexican Cartels (24)
Mexico (30)
Michael Yon (5)
Micromanaging the Military (7)
Middle East (1)
Military Blogging (26)
Military Contractors (4)
Military Equipment (24)
Militia (5)
Mitt Romney (3)
Monetary Policy (1)
Moqtada al Sadr (2)
Mosul (4)
Mountains (19)
MRAPs (1)
Mullah Baradar (1)
Mullah Fazlullah (1)
Mullah Omar (3)
Musa Qala (4)
Music (16)
Muslim Brotherhood (6)
Nation Building (2)
National Internet IDs (1)
National Rifle Association (19)
NATO (15)
Navy (21)
Navy Corpsman (1)
NCOs (3)
News (1)
NGOs (2)
Nicholas Schmidle (2)
Now Zad (19)
NSA (3)
NSA James L. Jones (6)
Nuclear (54)
Nuristan (8)
Obama Administration (218)
Offshore Balancing (1)
Operation Alljah (7)
Operation Khanjar (14)
Ossetia (7)
Pakistan (165)
Paktya Province (1)
Palestine (5)
Patriotism (6)
Patrolling (1)
Pech River Valley (11)
Personal (36)
Petraeus (14)
Pictures (1)
Piracy (13)
Pistol (2)
Pizzagate (21)
Police (271)
Police in COIN (3)
Policy (15)
Politics (331)
Poppy (2)
PPEs (1)
Prisons in Counterinsurgency (12)
Project Gunrunner (20)
PRTs (1)
Qatar (1)
Quadrennial Defense Review (2)
Quds Force (13)
Quetta Shura (1)
RAND (3)
Recommended Reading (14)
Refueling Tanker (1)
Religion (125)
Religion and Insurgency (19)
Reuters (1)
Rick Perry (4)
Rifles (1)
Roads (4)
Rolling Stone (1)
Ron Paul (1)
ROTC (1)
Rules of Engagement (75)
Rumsfeld (1)
Russia (29)
Sabbatical (1)
Sangin (1)
Saqlawiyah (1)
Satellite Patrols (2)
Saudi Arabia (4)
Scenes from Iraq (1)
Second Amendment (203)
Second Amendment Quick Hits (2)
Secretary Gates (9)
Sharia Law (3)
Shura Ittehad-ul-Mujahiden (1)
SIIC (2)
Sirajuddin Haqqani (1)
Small Wars (72)
Snipers (9)
Sniveling Lackeys (2)
Soft Power (4)
Somalia (8)
Sons of Afghanistan (1)
Sons of Iraq (2)
Special Forces (25)
Squad Rushes (1)
State Department (19)
Statistics (1)
Sunni Insurgency (10)
Support to Infantry Ratio (1)
Supreme Court (3)
Survival (16)
SWAT Raids (53)
Syria (38)
Tactical Drills (1)
Tactical Gear (2)
Taliban (167)
Taliban Massing of Forces (4)
Tarmiyah (1)
TBI (1)
Technology (16)
Tehrik-i-Taliban (78)
Terrain in Combat (1)
Terrorism (92)
Thanksgiving (6)
The Anbar Narrative (23)
The Art of War (5)
The Fallen (1)
The Long War (20)
The Surge (3)
The Wounded (13)
Thomas Barnett (1)
Transnational Insurgencies (5)
Tribes (5)
TSA (14)
TSA Ineptitude (11)
TTPs (1)
U.S. Border Patrol (5)
U.S. Border Security (14)
U.S. Sovereignty (17)
UAVs (2)
UBL (4)
Ukraine (3)
Uncategorized (45)
Universal Background Check (3)
Unrestricted Warfare (4)
USS Iwo Jima (2)
USS San Antonio (1)
Uzbekistan (1)
V-22 Osprey (4)
Veterans (2)
Vietnam (1)
War & Warfare (212)
War & Warfare (40)
War Movies (3)
War Reporting (18)
Wardak Province (1)
Warriors (6)
Waziristan (1)
Weapons and Tactics (58)
West Point (1)
Winter Operations (1)
Women in Combat (19)
WTF? (1)
Yemen (1)

October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006

about · archives · contact · register

Copyright © 2006-2017 Captain's Journal. All rights reserved.