4 years, 5 months ago
Sure, it’s only one state and it was a small, 200-person sample.
At least that’s what the Obama Campaign must be telling themselves at this point.
According to this article in Business Insider on June 12, 2012, support for Obama’s reelection among black voters in North Carolina is at an unprecedented low of 77% while support for Mitt Romney has climbed to 20%. In a state that Obama won against John McCain in 2008 by only 12,000 votes these numbers are not a warning light, they are a death knell.
President Barack Obama is rapidly losing support among African-American voters in North Carolina, a new poll out today from the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling shows.
The poll finds that Mitt Romney would get 20 percent of the African-American vote if the election were held today, compared with 76 percent for Obama. Overall, Romney has a 48 percent to 46 percent lead on Obama in the crucial swing state.
Obama received 95 percent of the support from African-Americans in North Carolina in the 2008 election, compared with just 5 percent for Republican nominee John McCain.
Besides the obvious headlines here, it is worth noting a couple things.
First, plunging support for Obama among the black community is extremely encouraging in terms of race relations for this country because it reflects the reality of Obama’s job performance. I do not care who the person occupying the White House may be– George Washington, Abe Lincoln, Ronald Reagan– no one should be getting an unwavering 95% block of support from any racial group in this country.
In other words, if race is not a primary factor, it is difficult to fathom how black voters can monolithically line up to support President Obama in the face of the highest black unemployment ever; the defiant opposition of Obama to school choice for low income black families; support for gay marriage, and; policies that have driven up the price of every staple that disproportionately affects black families. Maybe this is controversial. I hope not. Barack Obama has been a disaster for the black community and party identification alone simply cannot explain support in the 95% range. So these numbers from North Carolina may indicate that black voters may be starting to dispense with racial identity politics and look at Obama’s policies.
Imagine the real, racial healing that could occur if candidates could finally be evaluated without regard to their skin color and solely according to their policies and principles? If the Democrats were forced to actually compete for the votes of blacks rather than simply own them outright, there would be a major shift to the right in Democrat candidates and, thus, far more consensus politically. Even more tantalizing is the prospect that the Race Hustling Industry (run by the likes of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton) would no longer find an audience for their hate mongering.
The second major point I take away from this article is the possible consequences of even 20% of the black community voting for even a quasi-conservative Republican like Romney.
The Democrat Party knows that they have no shot at retaining or regaining power without the monolithic support of the black community. If even 25-30% of the black vote goes to Republicans it is over for any Democrat candidate. As a result, Democrats pull out all the stops when it comes to keeping the black voter in line. That includes hurling racial epithets at any black, Republican candidate that dares run for office, shaming any person of color who votes Republican as an “Uncle Tom,” and continually fomenting racial hatred and fears as we have seen so clearly with the Trayvon Martin case in Florida.
If, however, even 20% of black voters pull the lever for Romney, the spell may be broken. Twenty percent is alot of voters. Far too many for the Democrats to stigmatize as “traitors” or Uncle Toms as a whole. Suddenly, the cultural norm of automatically voting Democrat is fatally weakened. Once the stigma of voting Republican is tempered, it is game over.
One of the best kept secrets, repeatedly suppressed by Democrats, is that the black vote typically went to the Republican Party– the party of Lincoln, afterall– until the 1960’s. How many people know, for example, that Martin Luther King, Jr. was a registered Republican? How many black voters know that it was the Republicans in Congress that broke the Democrat opposition to the first Civil Rights Act?
It may be the greatest irony of the 21st Century that the first, black President may be the one who loses the black vote forever.