From Reuters:

Stocking warehouses in most police forces is low-rank, unglamorous work. In Afghanistan, where literacy and education are at a premium, Lieutenant Colonel Christopher Hurley is pushing to make it a well-paid and prestigious job.

The U.S. and its allies are rushing to ready the Afghan army and police to take over control of security from July, but they are discovering they have a job far more complex than just providing guns and training about how to use them.

Years of funding shortages, civil war, corruption and weak leadership have eaten away at the backbone of logistics, medical and training systems that support front-line troops.

So U.S. Air Force officer Hurley is just one of hundreds of foreign soldiers who have found themselves in Afghanistan fighting a war with training manuals, Excel spreadsheets and theories about supply lines.

Hurley runs training and management at the Afghan police force’s largest regional logistics hub, where just six Afghan officers coordinate supplies for 20,000 police in the south.

“One of the greatest challenges we face is the lack of literate, capable Afghan logisticians,” Hurley told Reuters in a gleaming warehouse stacked with everything from waterproof coats to pistols kept in a padlocked wire cage.

At present the pay and rank of the jobs are low. In a country where two-thirds of the population is illiterate, that makes it virtually impossible to attract police with the management and record-keeping skills needed, or give them a salary that ensures they resist temptations toward corruption.

“Logistics isn’t terribly glamorous, but what they control are the resources and the weapons so there is incredible pressure on them and a huge revenue stream,” Hurley said, adding that it is also a dangerous career choice.

“If they are doing things honorably they are at huge risk from the Taliban,” he said, gesturing to the stacks of guns.

Read the whole article.  I’ll predict that no amount of laptops, EXCEL spreadsheets, training or oversight will develop a logistics force or the capability to transport goods and services from place to place in Afghanistan.  But what’s more important, nothing we can do will rid the force of its systemic corruption.  As I recently observed, “in the end, evil is a moral problem, not an epistemological one, and you cannot educate or rehabilitate evil out of mankind.”

Corruption is neither a financial nor a pedagogical problem.  No literacy program will modify behavior.  Endemic corruption is an Afghani problem, and they Afghans will have to solve it, or they will fail at everything they do.  In this case the failure would be in logistics.  I have observed before that no army can long survive without logistics.  Logistics rules.

From Ynet News, this article:

The Iranian regime is closer than ever before to creating a nuclear bomb, according to RAND Corporation researcher Gregory S. Jones.

At its current rate of uranium enrichment, Tehran could have enough for its first bomb within eight weeks, Jones said in a report published this week.

The full RAND Corporation report is available here.

The report, titled, “Iran’s Nuclear Future, Critical U.S. Policy Choices,” was prepared specifically for the U.S. Air Force.  The report takes a four-step approach and in the first three steps it analyzes Iran’s nuclear program in the context of the Middle East and suggests broad policy options before getting to specifics relevant to the Air Force.   From my review of the report, it is assumed that Iran has or will soon have, at the very least, latent nuclear capabilities, i.e., the ability to quickly assemble a nuclear device while not openly demonstrating or testing that ability.   The report suggests several approaches for trying to dissuade Iran from fully developing a nuclear capability and, in the event that Iran does proceed with nukes, various approaches for containing or dissuading their use.

The significance of the Ynet article is the indication by one of the RAND researchers that it is already too late to stop the Iranian nuclear program by air power alone.   According to Gregory S. Jones:

He added that despite reports of setbacks in its nuclear program, the Iranian regime is steadily progressing towards a bomb. Unfortunately, Jones says, there is nothing the US can do to stop Tehran, short of military occupation.

The researcher based his report on recent findings by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), published two weeks ago. Making the bomb will take around two months, he says, because constructing a nuclear warhead is a complicated step in the process.

Jones stresses that stopping Iran will require deploying forces on the ground, because airstrikes are no longer sufficient. The reality is that the US and Israel have failed to keep Iran from developing a nuclear warhead whenever it wants, Jones says.

If this is an accurate assessment, then the world has gotten far more dangerous and America will pay a very steep price for having elected a President who was willing to allow the Iranian Regime an additional two years for nuclear development.   This does not absolve, by any means, George W. Bush for his malfeasance on this issue.  He should never have declared that Iran would not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon if he meant to simply kick the can down the road to the next President.  Nonetheless, there is no denying that Obama was handed a golden opportunity to fundamentally change the Middle East in 2009 when the Iranian people rose up to demand their political freedom from the brutal regime.  Allowing that regime to crush the uprising was an unforgivable error and no amount of Bush bashing will ever change that fact.

If there is any hope in the current predicament it lies in the 2012 U.S. elections and the possibility that a new President will have the skill and determination to support regime change in Iran.   After all the false promises of the so-called “Arab Spring,” Iran may be the one place in the Middle East where a true, Western democracy can actually emerge, one that no longer poses a grave threat to the U.S. and its allies in the region.

From Al Arabiya:

Corrupt administrators, bribery and political connections are all reasons for the continuous series of prison breakouts, many involving Al Qaeda members who later joined militias.

Around 4,000 militants and terrorists have escaped detention with inside help since 2006, the UAE-based newspaper, The National, reported figures compiled by Iraqi Reconciliation Society (IRS), an independent organization the monitors the country’ jails.

Most of the escapes occurred in Baghdad, the capital that is considered to be the instable and unsecure part in the country, IRS records show.

On May 20, five members from the Mahdi Army broke out of the Taji prison west of Baghdad as they were being transferred to a detention centre in the capital.

In Basra, the extreme south of the country, a parliamentary committee was set up to examine the escape of 12 Al Qaeda figures, some facing death sentences, from an interrogation center in the southern province on January 12.

Suzan Al Saad, a committee member, said the probe had “led directly to senior officials in the prime minister’s office who planned the escape” from Basra.

Information leaked to the media about the committee’s findings said Abdul Karim Abdul Fadel, security adviser to the prime minister, Nouri Al Maliki, allegedly helped Al Qaeda members escape.

Also named was Brigadier Ali Fadel Omran, a Baghdad military commander, in connection with the escape. He fled the country just as the parliamentary report was being completed.

“There were high-level security officers connected directly to the prime minister’s office who were coming and going from the prison compound and who had no reason to be there because they had no formal involvement in dealing with those prisoners,” Ms. Saad said in an interview.

Haider Al Saadi, a justice ministry spokesman, said in statement after the Taji escape that “weak and corrupted” administrators had let “a large number” of detainees break out.

The ministry’s spokesman also spoke of the ministry’s “serious concerns” over sectarianism among prison officials and said staff was susceptible to “political pressure.”

Speaking on condition of anonymity, another justice ministry official said there were prisoners with political connections who were “untouchable” while in custody and who eventually were set free because of those connections.

“Some of these prisoners are militants, including Al Qaeda, who enjoy support from political parties,” the official said. He insisted the justice ministry was working to tackle the corruption, which he said had been allowed to flourish for years under previous governments.

Iraq took control of jails previously run by the US military. The last prison under US control, Camp Cropper in Baghdad, was transferred to the Iraqi authorities in July 2010, although some detainees remain in American custody.

The prison breakout series have intensified with the US forces pulling out at the end of the year.

Stop and let that information wash over you again.  Approximately 4000 insurgents have escaped from Iraqi prisons since 2006.  The equivalent of four Battalions.  In addition to not taking the Iranian influence in the region seriously by engaging Iran in the covert war it was waging against both Iraq and the U.S., we (and Iraq) have left Iraq vulnerable to four Battalions of insurgents because of our adolescent belief in the rehabilitative powers of incarceration.

It isn’t surprising, this notion that prisons can effect proper counterinsurgency, given that most of the hard core advocates of population-centric, nation-building COIN are stronger believers in psychology and sociology than in theology.  But in the end, evil is a moral problem, not an epistemological one, and you cannot educate or rehabilitate evil out of mankind.

So the reader knows what I advocate.  Kill or release, but capture is counterproductive.  That offends the sensibilities of many, and so we play this silly game of incarceration – until, that is, the insurgents get released.  And then it’s no longer silly, because by releasing them we continue to allow evil people to perpetrate evil acts.  But by the time this evil would affect our sensibilities, we are long gone and don’t have to watch.  We trade off one thing for another, but the Iraqis are no better for our trade-off.  And the job is not done.

Prior: Prisons in Counterinsurgency Category

From The New York Times:

At least 28 Pakistani soldiers have been killed after two days of intense fighting with militants who crossed the border from Afghanistan  into northwestern Pakistan, local police officials said Thursday.

As many as 45 militants were killed, the officials said. The figures could not be independently verified.

Three civilians, including two women, were also killed in the clashes, and three Pakistani soldiers were missing. It was unclear whether they had been killed or had been abducted by the attackers.

At least 200 militants crossed the border on Wednesday morning and attacked a police post in Barawal, a village surrounded by rugged mountains and forests in the Shaltalo area of Upper Dir, a district in northwestern Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province. Shaltalo is near the border with Kunar Province of Afghanistan.

The fighters took up positions in the surrounding mountains and also attacked troops from hide-outs in the thick forest outside the village. They destroyed at least two schools and set several houses on fire. By Thursday afternoon, the intensity of the fighting was diminishing, and by the evening the troops had regained the advantage, the police said.

“The situation is under control,” said Jawahir Ali, a junior police official in Barawal.

Pakistani officials lodged a protest with the Afghan government late Thursday. Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir conveyed “strong concern” about the matter, according to a statement from the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The statement said that as many as 400 Afghan militants had been involved in the attack. Mr. Bashir demanded a strong response from the Afghan Army and United States and NATO forces against militants in Afghanistan, the statement said.

The border with Afghanistan in Dir district is porous and unguarded at most of the crossings, making infiltration easier. An army border checkpoint is located at Shahi, about 19 miles from Barawal.

But wait.  I thought that there were only a few al Qaeda affiliated fighters left in Afghanistan, and that the Afghan Taliban were interested only in an independent Islamic state in Afghanistan and were completely uninterested in anything but Afghanistan.  An Islamic version of the noble savage, as it were.  This incident doesn’t seem to fit the current narrative.

Furthermore, the Taliban have taken credit for the raid.

The Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility on Friday for a cross-border attack on a security post that appeared to signal the group was adopting a new strategy of large-scale attacks on government and army targets.

In the pre-dawn raid on Wednesday in the village of Shaltalo in Dir region, up to 400 militants crossed from Afghanistan. More than 24 hours of clashes ensued, the government said.

Twenty-seven Pakistani servicemen were killed and 45 militants died in the clashes in the northwest, security officials said. There were contradictory accounts of casualties and how many militants fought.

“Up to 40 to 50 of our fighters took part in the operation,” Ehsanullah Ashen, spokesman for the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (Taliban Movement of Pakistan), told Reuters by telephone from an undisclosed location. “None of our fighters were killed.”

The TTP has previously brought fighters from across the porous border with Afghanistan — where it has allies — to attack Pakistani security forces, but none were on the same scale as the Dir operation.

Deputy TTP leader Fakir Mohammed said the group with close ties to al Qaeda had changed strategy and would now focus on large-scale attacks only on state targets like the one in Dir.

Huh.  Hmmm … doesn’t comport with the narrative.

Pima County Sheriff Clarence Dupnik spoke on the record concerning the SWAT raid that killed former Marine Jose Guerena (courtesy of reader Rich Buckley).  There are several questions and answers that deserve our focus.

Dupnik:  I don’t know.  My feeling is that the reason he came not to the door, but entered the hallway with an assault rifle pointed, the only reason none of us were shot, is because he forgot the safety was on.  And by the time he realized, he was shot.  But my feeling is the reason he came with that gun is that he thought we were there to arrest him for murder.

Waddell:  Is there any explanation as to the mixup, because Storie has come out and said, look, we thought he wasn’t going to be home, or, we didn’t know the wife and kids were going to be home.

Dupnik:  I don’t have an explanation, but that’s not the facts that I have.  We had reason to believe that he probably was going to be there.  We also had reason to believe that the kids may not, and the mother, because they were supposed to be at school.  That was their normal pattern.  But we did not conduct the surveillance that day because we would have been identified.  We can’t do that.  First of all, when we are serving a search warrant on a property, it’s typical for when the people find out that you’re outside the house, the start destroying evidence that they can, burning documents, and things of this nature.  That’s one of the reasons that we don’t do that.  We had no reason at all to believe that this was anything other than any of the multitude of other search warrants that we’ve served where we never had a problem.  We had no reason to believe that this guy was going to do that.  But because he is part of a very violent organization, we considered it high risk.

Waddell:  There have been a lot of people who have started to call for changes in SWAT protocol in general – the way that things are surveilled, the way that the operation is conducted itself.  We’ve even had one of your former colleagues, the Graham County Sheriff, come out and say, look, I’ve worked with Sheriff Dupnik and I think it’s time to make some changes.  One, what do you say to those critics who are calling for changes in SWAT protocol?  And two, do you think that maybe it is time to review some of the policies?

Dupnik:  We’re always reviewing our policies.  And that’s one of the purposes of our shooting board, which is going to be meeting next week.  But as far as the other criticisms, let me tell you that Pima County has a nationally-recognized SWAT team.  As a matter of fact, one of our commanders goes all over the country instructing other organizations on SWAT techniques and protocol.  We have one that’s known internationally, Dr. Richard Carmona, who goes all over the world talking about SWAT.  In my judgment, we have a premiere SWAT organization, and at this point I don’t see any need to — This was an unfortunate situation that was provoked by the person himself.

Waddell:  We have had some viewers who have come out and said, look, how do I know that the SWAT team isn’t going to bust into my house and shoot me dead in my house for what they would say is no reason.  What would you say to the community to address some of those concerns of perhaps mishandling?

Dupnik:   I don’t think anything was mishandled.  Unfortunately, this individual points an assault rifle at cops.  You do that, you are going to get killed.  And the community has no reason to be concerned about it.  We have a national reputation.  We have been doing this for many years.  And our organization as I said is nationally recognized as one of the most proficient.  It’s not an issue.  We average about 50 of these searches of where we have to have a search warrant from judge.  And law abiding people don’t have to worry about confrontation with the cops.

This is just rich.  First, Sheriff Dupnik accuses Jose Guerena, a two-tour veteran of Iraq and honorably discharged Marine, of being incompetent.  He forgot to take his weapon off of safety.  It would be interesting to hear from from other Marines, active duty or former, but the notion that he forgot to take his weapon off of safety is so ridiculous that it makes the Sheriff’s case seem like just so much buffoonery.  I don’t have a handy picture of the safety on my AR, but go find one for yourself or on the web and take note of just how likely it would be for the weapon to be on safe and not know it when you picked it up.

Next, it’s a bit disconcerting to hear that the Pima County SWAT team, or any member of it, instructs other SWAT teams on proper tactics and techniques.  But a premier SWAT organization they certainly don’t have.  Recall the video of the SWAT raid?  The testimony thus far of the raid doesn’t match up with the video (courtesy of reader Dave Hardy).

Officer Hector Iglecias, told detectives he fired his handgun after he saw the muzzle flashes from Guerena’s rifle, documents state.

“I get this slight glimpse to the left, which is kind of like a living room area,” Iglecias said during the interview, which occurred right after the shooting.

“And I see, pretty much, a male subject come out,” he said.

Iglecias, of the Sahuarita Police Department, said he saw an object on the right side of Guerena’s body before he saw the muzzle flashes.

The officer said he then fired nine or 10 rounds from his handgun while holding it with one hand before the gun malfunctioned. He and other officers told authorities they saw splinters coming off the doorway during the shooting.

He fell while attempting to reload, he said, prompting the other officers to believe he was hit.

Iglecias described how officers pulled him in front of the entrance and took him behind an armored vehicle parked in front of the house.

Other officers described hearing shots fired in their direction.

Deputy Kenneth Walsh was the officer who gave the commands for Guerena to come out of the house.

Walsh told investigators he issued at least two sets of commands in English and Spanish before he and another officer were ordered to open the door.

The order to open the door came during his third set of commands, he said.

It took at least a minute to issue the commands before they knocked down the door, he said.

He also described a hectic scene filled with gunfire and splintering objects.

A full minute to issue the commands, or so they say.  The video shows four to five seconds.  All of the chaos that the testimony discusses came from the SWAT team.  The sequence of events was roughly this.

1. Guerena enters the room.
2. The first officer incorrectly believes he sees Guerena fire.
3. The first officer empties his magazine at him. Other officers now believe they are in a gunfight.
4. First officer stumbles and falls. Other officers believe Guerena has shot their buddy.
5. Other officers empty their magazines into him.

And remember.  This is a nationally recognized SWAT team who travels the nation teaching others how to do it.  And also remember, if you ever respond to a SWAT raid of your home after hearing a knock at the door four seconds before, not knowing who it is, or even if they are legitimate police officers, and armed men are entering your home, and you confront the intruders with a weapon, you’ll die.  So says Sheriff Dupnik.

Oh.  Did I mention that this team is nationally recognized and trains other SWAT teams to do this?

Prior:

New Details on the Jose Guerena Raid

Further Analysis of the Jose Guerena Raid

The Jose Guerena Raid: A Demonstration of Tactical Incompetence