In order to stop the violence in Pakistan’s Swat valley of the North West Frontier Province, or so the government of Pakistan hopes, a deal has been struck to turn over Swat to fudamentalist Sharia law.  Zardari still believes that the Taliban problem poses the greatest risk to the survival of Pakistan, and in this he is correct.  The Taliban must be eliminated, he says.

But the analysis is basically correct.  While Zardari believes that the Taliban are the real threat to Pakistan’s existence, Pakistan still does not.  Zardari cannot wage the war against the Taliban – the Army and ISI are needed, and since they are still convinced that this is an American war, the deal has been struck with the Taliban.  Note the nuance with which Pakistan’s Foreign Minister deals with the issue.

This notion of reconcilable Taliban versus irreconcilable Taliban is a convenient excuse for turning off the war.  There may be those irreconcilables out there, but The Captain’s Journal believes that there are relatively few of them.  Another way of saying it is that the ones who have perpetrated the violence will continue to perpetrate the violence.  The tenacity and commitment to the mission is evidence of their intentions.

As for the Pakistani Army and the ISI, as we discussed about five months ago, there is duplicitous behavior taking place.

ONE SWELTERING AFTERNOON in July, I ventured into the elegant home of a former Pakistani official who recently retired after several years of serving in senior government posts. We sat in his book-lined study. A servant brought us tea and biscuits.

Was it the obsession with India that led the Pakistani military to support the Taliban? I asked him.

“Yes,” he said.

Or is it the anti-Americanism and pro-Islamic feelings in the army?

“Yes,” he said, that too.

And then the retired Pakistani official offered another explanation — one that he said could never be discussed in public. The reason the Pakistani security services support the Taliban, he said, is for money: after the 9/11 attacks, the Pakistani military concluded that keeping the Taliban alive was the surest way to win billions of dollars in aid that Pakistan needed to survive. The military’s complicated relationship with the Taliban is part of what the official called the Pakistani military’s “strategic games.” Like other Pakistanis, this former senior official spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of what he was telling me.

“Pakistan is dependent on the American money that these games with the Taliban generate,” the official told me. “The Pakistani economy would collapse without it. This is how the game works.”

As an example, he cited the Pakistan Army’s first invasion of the tribal areas — of South Waziristan in 2004. Called Operation Shakai, the offensive was ostensibly aimed at ridding the area of Taliban militants. From an American perspective, the operation was a total failure. The army invaded, fought and then made a deal with one of the militant commanders, Nek Mohammed. The agreement was capped by a dramatic meeting between Mohammed and Safdar Hussein, one of the most senior officers in the Pakistan Army.

“The corps commander was flown in on a helicopter,” the former official said. “They had this big ceremony, and they embraced. They called each other mujahids. ”

“Mujahid” is the Arabic word for “holy warrior.” The ceremony, in fact, was captured on videotape, and the tape has been widely distributed.

“The army agreed to compensate the locals for collateral damage,” the official said. “Where do you think that money went? It went to the Taliban. Who do you think paid the bill? The Americans. This is the way the game works. The Taliban is attacked, but it is never destroyed.

Whatever the motivation – money or as a buffer against India – the Army is not eliminating the Taliban as Zardari had hoped.  Counterinsurgency tactics can be learned, but belief and volition must underlie the Army’s actions for the campaign to be anything other than for show.  Thus continue the Talibanization of Pakistan.

Prior: Pashtun Rejection of the Global War on Terror