This development should not be entirely unexpected. After years of being run over and manhandled by the West, Russia is finally in an economic and therefore political position to exercise its will. Here’s a little historical context: part of the deal for German reunification (at least as the Russians understood it) was that there would not be any NATO expansion into ex-Warsaw Pact areas. But what did we do? We expanded NATO membership to most of those states and extended our influence to former Soviet republics by way of the Partnership for Peace program. Furthermore, for years we have supported the idea of national self-determination in parts of Europe where it suited our policy but that was counter to Russian policy; I’m specifically referring to Kosovo here. We made a huge strategic error this year by recognizing Kosovo’s independence because it sent the signal that it is okay to undertake violent action to secede from a larger state, wait out the international mediation process (9 years in the Kosovo case), and then declare independence.

We kicked Russia when it was down in the 1990s. They couldn’t realistically oppose any of our policy aims at the time: Gulf War I, the Bosnian War, NATO expansion, the Kosovo War. They were politically weak and poorly led (Yeltsin). More recently, they even played ball with us in the early period following September 11th by permitting basing in Central Asia to prosecute the GWOT. (One could contend that Russia doesn’t have to approve US/NATO basing in sovereign Central Asian states, but the reality is that those countries remain in Russia’s sphere of influence.) We, however, did not recognize or (more likely) chose to ignore the changing winds: Russia’s new petrodollar-funded affluence also brought increased political influence. One only has to look at Europe’s fragmented response to Russia’s decision to cut off gas supplies during its recent disagreement with Ukraine; it was “every man for himself” as each European state tried to cut separate energy deals with the Russians. So much for the European “Union” – they were all busy trying to save their own skins. Is it any wonder that there isn’t much outrage coming out of Europe about the attack into Georgia? Europe is beholden to Russia for energy and they lack the political will to do anything about the situation.

So after failing to heed the warning signs (Russia’s opposition to missile defense, its resumption of bomber patrols, and its vociferous opposition to Georgia & Ukraine’s entrance into NATO) and setting a dangerous precedent (recognizing Kosovo’s independence), the US and Europe have created the conditions that have allowed Russia to justify its incursion into Georgia in order to 1) maintain its traditional sphere of influence and 2) protect ethnic Russians who do not want to be part of the country in which they find themselves. Like it or not, we have contributed to Georgia’s current unhappy condition.

What I would be interested to know (and which I’m sure will come out sometime in the near future) is if the US green-lighted the Georgian adventure into South Ossetia. I have my doubts that this fledgling democracy dependent on US & European support would just up and decide to take action without at least consulting with the people it would expect to save its bacon if things went south.

I’m not an apologist for the Russians by any means, and I think the situation is deplorable. I am merely seeking to explain what happens when high-minded idealism crashes into brutal realpolitik.

You’ll be directly supporting a fledgling democracy surrounded by thugs. And please help spread the word!

If he could tear himself away from china and get himself to Tbilisi, stand side by side with President Shaakashvili and “lay down the law” (send some Troops and Air Power to Georgia) (the russians won’t dare to attack our Troops) to stalin, I mean putin, then he can redeem himslef and America’s stature as the world’s only Super Power will be intact. Then it will be the russians who are wringing their hands and whining while America takes resolue action, instead of the way it is now. The opposite.