Comments on: Losing the NWFP to the Taliban http://www.captainsjournal.com/2008/07/27/losing-the-nwfp-to-the-taliban/ News & Commentary on Warfare, Policy and Counterterrorism Thu, 04 Dec 2008 01:39:12 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: Truth v. The Machine » Archives » Around the world http://www.captainsjournal.com/2008/07/27/losing-the-nwfp-to-the-taliban/#comment-26273 Truth v. The Machine » Archives » Around the world Tue, 29 Jul 2008 14:12:01 +0000 http://www.captainsjournal.com/?p=1216#comment-26273 [...] Captain’s Journal - In Baitullah Mehsud: The Making of a Terror State we discussed the consolidation of power in the NWFP under the umbrella of Baitullah Medsud and the Tehrik-i-Taliban, and even though different subsets of Taliban currently threaten Peshawar, they are ultimately part of the Tehrik-i-Taliban. Now it is being reported that internal Pakistan analysts and watchers are concerned about the total loss of the North West Frontier Province to the Taliban. [...] [...] Captain’s Journal - In Baitullah Mehsud: The Making of a Terror State we discussed the consolidation of power in the NWFP under the umbrella of Baitullah Medsud and the Tehrik-i-Taliban, and even though different subsets of Taliban currently threaten Peshawar, they are ultimately part of the Tehrik-i-Taliban. Now it is being reported that internal Pakistan analysts and watchers are concerned about the total loss of the North West Frontier Province to the Taliban. [...]

]]> By: Peace Like A River » Cables, dispatches and memoranda http://www.captainsjournal.com/2008/07/27/losing-the-nwfp-to-the-taliban/#comment-26269 Peace Like A River » Cables, dispatches and memoranda Tue, 29 Jul 2008 06:47:41 +0000 http://www.captainsjournal.com/?p=1216#comment-26269 [...] Captain’s Journal - In Baitullah Mehsud: The Making of a Terror State we discussed the consolidation of power in the NWFP under the umbrella of Baitullah Medsud and the Tehrik-i-Taliban, and even though different subsets of Taliban currently threaten Peshawar, they are ultimately part of the Tehrik-i-Taliban. Now it is being reported that internal Pakistan analysts and watchers are concerned about the total loss of the North West Frontier Province to the Taliban. [...] [...] Captain’s Journal - In Baitullah Mehsud: The Making of a Terror State we discussed the consolidation of power in the NWFP under the umbrella of Baitullah Medsud and the Tehrik-i-Taliban, and even though different subsets of Taliban currently threaten Peshawar, they are ultimately part of the Tehrik-i-Taliban. Now it is being reported that internal Pakistan analysts and watchers are concerned about the total loss of the North West Frontier Province to the Taliban. [...]

]]> By: kingaethelstan http://www.captainsjournal.com/2008/07/27/losing-the-nwfp-to-the-taliban/#comment-26258 kingaethelstan Mon, 28 Jul 2008 16:58:51 +0000 http://www.captainsjournal.com/?p=1216#comment-26258 'Regardless of where the nuclear arsenal is located, the notion that the U.S. could garrison enough troops and military materiel inside Pakistan proper to provide force protection for itself and a nuclear arsenal is ridiculous.' Not sure this scepticism is justified. The mission requirement would be to have sufficient capability to destroy the Nukes functionally and remove the radioactive material before any intervening party could get at them. That doesn't need to comprise much of a force. It would be a tough mission though. And as far as the reality test goes, the likelihood that some contingency like this DIDN'T exist stretches credulity. Pakistan is a corrupt basket-case, prone to coups and many other kinds of unpredictabilities. If GWB didn't take action like that described after 9/11, I'd very much like to know why. You might be right, but my money would be the other way. ‘Regardless of where the nuclear arsenal is located, the notion that the U.S. could garrison enough troops and military materiel inside Pakistan proper to provide force protection for itself and a nuclear arsenal is ridiculous.’
Not sure this scepticism is justified. The mission requirement would be to have sufficient capability to destroy the Nukes functionally and remove the radioactive material before any intervening party could get at them. That doesn’t need to comprise much of a force. It would be a tough mission though. And as far as the reality test goes, the likelihood that some contingency like this DIDN’T exist stretches credulity. Pakistan is a corrupt basket-case, prone to coups and many other kinds of unpredictabilities. If GWB didn’t take action like that described after 9/11, I’d very much like to know why. You might be right, but my money would be the other way.

]]> By: Herschel Smith http://www.captainsjournal.com/2008/07/27/losing-the-nwfp-to-the-taliban/#comment-26256 Herschel Smith Mon, 28 Jul 2008 14:40:52 +0000 http://www.captainsjournal.com/?p=1216#comment-26256 OBL is a very minor concern, and is nothing more than a figure head now. Losing Waziristan is huge, as the Talibanization of Pakistan proceeds unabated towards Peshawar, Ralwapindi and Islamabad. Troop withdrawals cannot occur when and if we ever find OBL. The MUCH larger concern is the radicalization of the Pakistan/Afghanistan region (the Pashtun have been utterly unable to stop the move towards militancy within the tribes), and counterinsurgency will take many more years there. This isn't about HVI/HVT, but the region, militants and the population. OBL is a very minor concern, and is nothing more than a figure head now. Losing Waziristan is huge, as the Talibanization of Pakistan proceeds unabated towards Peshawar, Ralwapindi and Islamabad.

Troop withdrawals cannot occur when and if we ever find OBL. The MUCH larger concern is the radicalization of the Pakistan/Afghanistan region (the Pashtun have been utterly unable to stop the move towards militancy within the tribes), and counterinsurgency will take many more years there. This isn’t about HVI/HVT, but the region, militants and the population.

]]> By: Warbucks http://www.captainsjournal.com/2008/07/27/losing-the-nwfp-to-the-taliban/#comment-26255 Warbucks Mon, 28 Jul 2008 14:26:20 +0000 http://www.captainsjournal.com/?p=1216#comment-26255 Winning or losing the NWFP will prove to be of secondary concern for the US. The Queen Victorian boarder line on the ridge between Afghanistan and old India, now Pakistan, divided the 5,000 year old culture of the Pashtun. The US primary concern will most likely be finding and extracting OBL for symbolic closure and troop withdrawals…… to this end even Pakistan will come around. Winning or losing the NWFP will prove to be of secondary concern for the US. The Queen Victorian boarder line on the ridge between Afghanistan and old India, now Pakistan, divided the 5,000 year old culture of the Pashtun. The US primary concern will most likely be finding and extracting OBL for symbolic closure and troop withdrawals…… to this end even Pakistan will come around.

]]>