FNC is just reporting that Israeli rockets have for the first time in this conflict hit Lebanese military installations and killed Lebanese soldiers.  I have watched for several days now wondering what Israel is doing.  It would appear that they are attempting to make the balance of Lebanon learn the very hard way that it is going to be hurtful to allow Hezbollah to occupy southern Lebanon, thus forcing Lebanese troops to pick a fight with Hezbollah.  However, the Strategy Page reminds us that there was civil war in Lebanon for years:

July 16, 2006: Iran aside, there hasn’t been a really noisy response from the Moslem world about Israel’s military operations against Lebanon. Notably subdued is the response from the Arab countries; it’s mostly been mumbling about the plight of the Palestinians and such. Could this mean that the principal Arab leaders are not all that unhappy to see Hizbollah get it in the neck? After all, most of the Arabs are Sunni, while Hizbollah and Iran are Shia. The exception that proves the rule is Syria, which has a Shia leadership. But most Arabs fear Iran, not because most Iranians are Shia, but because Iranians are not Arabs. Iran has been the regional superpower for over three thousand years. Iran is building nuclear weapons. Iran is backing Shia Arab factions in Iraq that would support turning Iraq into an Iranian ally. Also scary is the fact that Iran is currently run by a religious dictatorship. Most Arabs have noted how that worked in Iran, Sudan and Afghanistan and want no part of it. Worse, the Iranian religious leadership believes that they would do a better job running the Hejaz (the region of Saudi Arabia containing Mecca and Medina and the most holy places in Islam). For centuries, the Turks kept the Iranians out of the Hejaz. But who would keep nuclear armed Iranians out? Perhaps worst of all, what if Iran tried attacking Israel with nukes, and both nations went at it with nuclear weapons. Iran has loudly proclaimed its aim of destroying Israel, but Israel has nuclear weapons, and no desire to be destroyed. The Arabs would be caught in the middle of all this.The Sunni Arab world always saw Hizbollah as an Iranian branch office on the Mediterranean. Hizbollah was also seen as one of the reasons the Lebanese civil war, that began in 1975, went on for so long (until 1990, when everyone called it quits, mainly because of sheer exhaustion). Sunni Arabs also take a dim view of how the Shia Alawite sect has controlled Syria (a majority Sunni country) for two generations. The Syrian Alawites hang on via subsidies from Iran. Sunni Arabs have always despised Shia, and would like to see the Lebanese and Syrian Shia put in their place (subordinate, very subordinate). Having Israel do a lot of the heavy lifting is seen as an added bonus.The increasing openness of the Lebanese government about wanting to disarm militias may have sparked Hizbollah’s cross-border raid into Israel. Hizbollah leadership may have decided that the best way to avoid being disarmed was to provoke a crisis with Israel. There’s a chance that all Lebanese would unite to defend against the Israeli attacks. In the wake of that, Hizbollah would again be national heroes, not a private, Islamic radical militia run by Iranian religious fanatics. 

Is it not possible that Israel, which seems to know everything about everything in the middle east because of its intelligence capabilities, does not know or see that the Lebanese government cannot force Hezbollah out?  They have tried, and it led to the civil war that existed for so many years.

Also while watching FNC, I found myself in agreement with Maj. Bob Bevelacqua.  It seems strange.  I have always found him to be an unceasingly obnoxious, preening, arrogant know-it-all, self-proclaimed expert on everything in the world, usually giving commentary that ends up running counter to the administration’s positions (e.g., I have heard him side with Sen. Kennedy before).  But on this I agree.  He was livid over Israel’s targeting of Lebanese infrastructure, essentially saying that it will effect changes that are directly contrary to their aim.

I believe that Israel has a small window of opportunity.  This window seems even to be there with the rest of the middle east.  It seems that everyone would give them a pass, so to speak, to go in and destroy Hezbollah.  But right now they are targeting Lebanese infrastructure and military installations.

The strategy is puzzling to say the least, and perhaps deadly in the worst case.  Israel cannot let this opportunity slip away without massive changes in the nature and makeup of southern Lebanon.  If these changes do not result from this exchange, Hezbollah will be strengthened, they will claim victory, they will be completely unopposed in Lebanon, Iran and Syria will escape without so much as their proxy being taken out, the focus will have been taken away from the Syria/Iran connection to terror and the Iranian nuclear program, and radical Islam over the middle east and beyond will feel a sense of accomplishment over not just the survival of the Shia version of UBL (Nasrallah), but the victorious challenge he made to Israel and the U.S.

Time is slipping away.  What is Israel doing?  Exchanging rocket for rocket and targeting infrastructure that has absolutely nothing to do with Hezbollah?

It is time to unleash the dogs of war.  Will they do it?